October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

And January will have 31 days.

 

But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order.

How's the weather up above the fray?

[Phil]

Lol GFS w/ Matthew. Makes landfall as a major, loops back out, then tries to make another landfall as a major in the same region.

[Deweydog]

How's the weather up above the fray?

Just like yours, just more enjoyable without all the angst, anxiety and self-absorption.

 

You'll get there someday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How's the weather up above the fray?

 

When Jesse sees a snowflake! 

 

[Jesse]

Just like yours, just more enjoyable without all the angst, anxiety and self-absorption.

 

You'll get there someday.

 

It's ok to admit you're human, Matt. We'll all still love you.

[Deweydog]

It's ok to admit you're human, Matt. We'll all still love you.

You need new material.

[snow_wizard]

We knew last year was going to suck. I see a 2011-12 or 2010-11 as kind of a best case scenario for this winter. 

 

You have absolutely no way of knowing that.

[TT-SEA]

Lol GFS w/ Matthew. Makes landfall as a major, loops back out, then tries to make another landfall as a major in the same region.

 

On that run its actually approaching Cuba again from the north next Wednesday... and very strong.     

 

Crazy if it comes close to verifying.

[Phil]

Oh no, the loop doesn't complete! Going back for a third landfall?

 

Hopefully just the goofus being its goofy self.

[snow_wizard]

And January will have 31 days.

 

But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order.

 

It's irrational to expect something decent after the last two fests?

[Jesse]

You need new material.

 

It's ok. If a weather forum is the only place you can feel like king of the hill, might as well let you enjoy it.

[snow_wizard]

Oh no, the loop doesn't complete! Going back for a third landfall?

 

Hopefully just the goofus being its goofy self.

 

Amazingly some hurricanes in the past have had tracks like that.  I imagine some people in Florida and the Bahamas are feeling a bit queasy after seeing that run.

[Deweydog]

It's ok. If a weather forum is the only place you can feel like king of the hill, might as well let you enjoy it.

What's the hill's elevation???

 

Can I expect to see snow during cold onshore flow events???

 

I think someone just has a case of the 00z's...

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian and GFS looking fairly warm with the wet next week. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Extremely complicated pattern being depicted on the 0z.  Not nearly as cut and dried as it appeared a couple of days ago.  No telling where this month is going to end up.

[Phil]

Amazingly some hurricanes in the past have had tracks like that. I imagine some people in Florida and the Bahamas are feeling a bit queasy after seeing that run.

Makes me sick to my stomach. Just barely misses blasting the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on its way up, too.

[Jesse]

What's the hill's elevation???

 

Can I expect to see snow during cold onshore flow events???

 

I think someone just has a case of the 00z's...

 

00zs aren't bad. Cuts the sunshine down to just Sunday and Monday. Maybe even less time up north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Extremely complicated pattern being depicted on the 0z.  Not nearly as cut and dried as it appeared a couple of days ago.  No telling where this month is going to end up.

 

We may have to depend on the GOLU model!

[TT-SEA]

Extremely complicated pattern being depicted on the 0z.  Not nearly as cut and dried as it appeared a couple of days ago.  No telling where this month is going to end up.

 

 

I am betting warm and wet when all is said and done.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You have absolutely no way of knowing that.

 

Of course not. I think an absolute best case scenario is something like a 2013-14. 20 years from now we will talk about what an underrated winter that was. The 1928-29 of our time. 

[Deweydog]

It's irrational to expect something decent after the last two s**t fests?

No, but simply better than the last two winters would still be fairly disappointing and would have people pretty lathered up, especially if/when January swings and misses.

[Jesse]

Of course not. I think an absolute best case scenario is something like a 2013-14. 20 years from now we will talk about what an underrated winter that was. The 1928-29 of our time. 

 

You just said the weenie meltdowns would wait until winter!

[Jesse]

No, but simply better than the last two winters would still be fairly disappointing and would have people pretty lathered up, especially if/when January swings and misses.

 

Something tells me the idea of all of this lathers you up pretty good.

[TT-SEA]

Of course not. I think an absolute best case scenario is something like a 2013-14. 20 years from now we will talk about what an underrated winter that was. The 1928-29 of our time. 

 

 

I remember a long, dry, sunny period at my house in January... and.a chilly Seahawks parade on a sun-splashed day in early February with cherry trees blooming along the long walk from our car to downtown Seattle.   

 

And a stupidly wet March.  

 

That is about all.  

[snow_wizard]

Tremedously heavy rains being shown for WA and southern BC on this run.  Shades of 2003?

 

I have a funny feeling we are going to see a major cold snap sometime later this month or in the first half of November.  The pattern being shown has some of the classic warning signs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You just said the weenie meltdowns would wait until winter!

 

Wat?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember a long, dry, sunny period at my house in January... and.a chilly Seahawks parade on a sun-splashed day in early February with cherry trees blooming along the long walk from our car to downtown Seattle.   

 

And a stupidly wet March.  

 

That is about all.  

 

It was pretty wintry in Oregon. 

[Deweydog]

Something tells me the idea of all of this lathers you up pretty good.

So which is it? Am I above the fray or suppressing the fact I want to spaz out and lash out about every little twist and turn in our climate?

 

Which is it, Freud? Better get it right. Our winter depends on it.

[snow_wizard]

Of course not. I think an absolute best case scenario is something like a 2013-14. 20 years from now we will talk about what an underrated winter that was. The 1928-29 of our time. 

 

Funny you mention 1928-29.  Not a winter that is usually brought up first as being great.  In some ways I would like to see a repeat of it over winters that are brought up much more often.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS is a seriously warm run... through to the end.

 

I sense warm nights and occasional bouts of heavy rain possible?   

 

I am not seeing any chances for frost.   

[snow_wizard]

I am betting warm and wet when all is said and done.   

 

 

Wet is looking like a good bet.  I would sure hate to see another October with persistent deep low pressure off the coast.

[Jesse]

So which is it? Am I above the fray or suppressing the fact I want to spaz out and lash out about every little twist and turn in our climate.

 

Which is it, Freud? Better get it right. Our winter depends on it.

 

Maybe a little bit of both? One dovetails neatly into the other as far as I can tell. Playing the cool guy role has an even bigger payout when others become upset/sad due to their trivial, earthly weather concerns. Gives a golden opportunity for the all-important distinction to be made even sharper.

[TT-SEA]

Wet is looking like a good bet.  I would sure hate to see another October with persistent deep low pressure off the coast.

 

 

Hard to see that not happening at this point.    

[Deweydog]

The 00Z GFS is a seriously warm run... through to the end.

 

I sense warm nights and occasional bouts of heavy rain possible?

 

I am not seeing any chances for frost.

But then there's the Canadian...

[Deweydog]

Maybe a little bit of both? One dovetails neatly into the other as far as I can tell. Playing the cool guy role has an even bigger payout when others become upset/sad due to their trivial, earthly weather concerns. Gives a golden opportunity for the all-important distinction to be made even sharper.

I think many of us could indeed do a better job pacifying you. I will work on it.

[TT-SEA]

But then there's the Canadian...

 

It actually agrees for once.  

[snow_wizard]

I remember a long, dry, sunny period at my house in January... and.a chilly Seahawks parade on a sun-splashed day in early February with cherry trees blooming along the long walk from our car to downtown Seattle.   

 

And a stupidly wet March.  

 

That is about all.  

 

You don't remember the two bitter cold snaps that winter?  That's about all that was worth remembering on that one.

[Jesse]

I think many of us could indeed do a better job pacifying you. I will work on it.

 

I've been utterly out of control lately.

[Deweydog]

It actually agrees for once.

It's a bit drier. We're not that far from the start of drier-equals-cooler season!

[Deweydog]

I've been utterly out of control lately.

Just normal.