October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Here are some live streaming hurricane Matthew beachside cameras. Will get very interesting at many of these locations:

 

http://www.mybeachcams.com/florida/northeast/

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF track is the worst possible solution for the coastline between Jacksonville and Charleston.  

[Phil]

Sunny Isle Beach cam should be a good one to watch for a little while:

 

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/see-miami#webcams

Nice. Juno Beach cam is a good one too: http://www.beachcamsusa.com/fl/juno-beach/juno-beach-pier-surf-cam

 

Jacksonville is the one I'm watching since it's a good proxy for Saint Simons GA:

 

http://www.jaxpiercam.com

 

There's some other ones on Surfline.com that provide live wave heights and wind speeds + local forecasts:

 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-florida_125267/

[luminen]

A  fall-like day today with wind blown leaves hitting my windshield and really dark clouds threatening rain any second. 

[TT-SEA]

First snow advisory for central and northern Minnesota... 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MNZ034&warncounty=MNC035&firewxzone=MNZ034&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NW%20Riverton%20MN&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=46.4871&lon=-94.0764#.V_bbheArKhc

[TT-SEA]

At least it was dry for most of the day and the storm is clearing out by morning.

 

62/54 at SEA today which is +3 on the day.

 

I suspect there will not be many below normal days in the next 2 weeks unfortunately with the clouds and rain at times.    I generally love below normal weather in October because usually it means its dry (and clear at night).   And it seems to be a good sign for winter.   

 

Of course one of the top recent analogs has been 1990 which was very wet in October and November (with flooding) and then the payoff with snow and cold later in December.

[Phil]

At least it was dry for most of the day and the storm is clearing out by morning.

 

62/54 at SEA today which is +3 on the day.

 

I suspect there will not be many below normal days in the next 2 weeks unfortunately with the clouds and rain at times. I generally love below normal weather in October because usually it means its dry (and clear at night). And it seems to be a good sign for winter.

 

Of course one of the top recent analogs has been 1990 which was very wet in October and November (with flooding) and then the payoff with snow and cold later in December.

I see gloomy, murky, rainy days in your future.

 

Depressing stuff.

[TT-SEA]

I see gloomy, murky, rainy days in your future.

 

 

Some... but usually in a fast moving pattern with a strong jet suppressed down into Northern California and Oregon there are noticeable breaks and even some sun between rain events.

 

Tomorrow looks partly sunny and dry.   Monday and Tuesday could be the same... even Wednesday.    

 

It will not just be raining and dark all the time with this pattern coming up.  

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.495658138000465&lon=-121.78677996199968#.V_bvVsT3aJI

 

 

Forecast looks like that from now until March for the most part... does not mean it will be pouring rain and dark every day all the time.   

 

I know how it works here now after living here for over a decade.

 

Tomorrow will be pretty nice for example yet it shows dark and wet on the forecast picture.   A few showers but lots of sun breaks and mostly dry.   They can only show one icon for the day and it will be overly pessimistic most of the time.   I can post some pics tomorrow afternoon to demonstrate this for you.  

 

Here is tomorrow afternoon... plenty of sunshine for western WA.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/olr.36.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Is Matthew tracking east of guidance?

 

Based on its path it looks like it will stay offshore for a good part of the east coast of Florida.

[Phil]

Just messing around a bit.

[Phil]

Is Matthew tracking east of guidance?

 

Based on its path it looks like it will stay offshore for a good part of the east coast of Florida.

Most guidance keeps it just offshore. These storms wobble quite frequently, so it's honestly up in the air at this point.

 

New forecasts have 30-40ft waves near the SE GA coast with breakers over 25 feet. This on top of a surge that's 7-14ft above ground. Yikes.

[Deweydog]

Is Matthew tracking east of guidance?

 

Based on its path it looks like it will stay offshore for a good part of the east coast of Florida.

I only ravage less developed countries.

[TT-SEA]

Just messing around a bit.

 

 

You seem to imply that I don't fully expect frequent rain and storms beginning in October.   I do.   Its all part of the package here.    Best to have fun with it... and maximize the enjoyment of the nice periods in between the storms.

 

We can always take more trips... even just across the mountains to places like the wine country or Leavenworth.   That is a huge advantage to living here.    That and trips to Hawaii, Arizona, and Florida planned.  

[snow_wizard]

The upper level pattern ended up almost exactly as I thought, however my knowledge of surface temperature dynamics in the PNW is fairly weak, so I'm not happy with my performance in that regard.

 

Normally I think you would have done better on the temps.  I've never seen such sustained anomalous troughing yield such unimpressively negative temps.  Tim got pretty lucky IMO.

[Phil]

You seem to imply that I don't fully expect frequent rain and storms beginning in October. I do. Its all part of the package here. Best to have fun with it... and maximize the enjoyment of the nice periods in between the storms.

 

We can always take more trips... even just across the mountains to places like the wine country or Leavenworth. That is a huge advantage to living here. That and trips to Hawaii, Arizona, and Florida planned.

I wasn't implying anything.

 

I didn't think you'd take the bait.

[TT-SEA]

I wasn't implying anything.

 

I didn't think you'd take the bait.

 

 

Really?   

 

Yes you did.  

[TT-SEA]

Normally I think you would have done better on the temps.  I've never seen such sustained anomalous troughing yield such unimpressively negative temps.  Tim got pretty lucky IMO.

 

 

Well... it was based on local history in our analog years.   So its happened before to some extent.    

[Trainwreck]

Ladies, settle down. Lol

[Phil]

Normally I think you would have done better on the temps. I've never seen such sustained anomalous troughing yield such unimpressively negative temps. Tim got pretty lucky IMO.

If I were to attempt this line of reasoning, Tim/Dewey et al would be all up in my space about it, considering I don't live there.

 

It's a lose-lose for me either way.

[Phil]

Really?

 

Yes you did.

Enjoy the rain!

[TT-SEA]

If I were to attempt this line of reasoning, Tim/Dewey et al would be all up in my space about it, considering I don't live there.

 

It's a lose-lose for me either way.

 

 

Upper level troughing can lead to more sunshine in the Puget Sound region in the summer.    Sometimes weak ridging and warmer 850mb temps can lead to more cloudiness and cooler weather than the type of troughing we saw this summer.    

 

And August was the real deal.   

[TT-SEA]

Enjoy the rain!

 

 

I am!  

 

And will enjoy some sunshine tomorrow.  

 

Ebb and flow of fall in the PNW.

[Phil]

Upper level troughing can lead to more sunshine in the Puget Sound region in the summer. Sometimes weak ridging and warmer 850mb temps can lead to more cloudiness and cooler weather than the type of troughing we saw this summer.

 

And August was the real deal.

Should I post the 500mb analysis for JAS?

 

Spoiler: Lots of blue.

[TT-SEA]

Should I post the 500mb analysis for J/A/S?

 

Spoiler: Lots of blue.

 

 

Right... read my post again.   Its the upper level troughing that directly resulted in more sunshine in the Puget Sound region.  

 

Upper level troughing can be warmer and more sunny here than weak ridging and warmer 850mb temps in the summer.   It happened this summer.  

 

Local knowledge... local history.     Sometimes it works.

[Front Ranger]

Is Matthew tracking east of guidance?

 

Based on its path it looks like it will stay offshore for a good part of the east coast of Florida.

 

Yep. It's looking more and more likely that most of FL will avoid significant impact from this storm. GA and SC are less out of the woods. But decent chance now this thing never makes landfall...at least the first time around.

[Phil]

Right... read my post again. Its the upper level troughing that directly resulted in more sunshine in the Puget Sound region.

 

Upper level troughing can be warmer and more sunny here than weak ridging and warmer 850mb temps in the summer. It happened this summer.

 

Local knowledge... local history. Sometimes it works.

Except you were constantly calling for ridging (I saved over 20+ posts of you doing so).

 

Can't flip the script and claim you forecasted deep troughing most of the summer to result in warm temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

Yep. It's looking more and more likely that most of FL will avoid significant impact from this storm. GA and SC are less out of the woods. But decent chance now this thing never makes landfall...at least the first time around.

 

 

This is the part that matters... whatever circles back will be much weaker.

[TT-SEA]

Except I saved over 25 posts from you calling for ridging.

 

Can't flip the script and claim you forecasted deep troughing last of the summer to result in warm temperatures.

 

Really??   We have been over this a million times.   

 

What are you doing tonight??   Tim - its going to rain all the time forever.   Tim - you called for ridging but it was an incredibly troughy and cold summer.   

 

Are you really anxious about the hurricane and just looking for a fight?    Maybe drinking?   

 

Bringing up crap for no apparent reason at all.    Find someone else to spar with... I am too busy with work.

[Phil]

Yep. It's looking more and more likely that most of FL will avoid significant impact from this storm. GA and SC are less out of the woods. But decent chance now this thing never makes landfall...at least the first time around.

Until I see it actually turn northward, my anxiety level will be quite high. Am still worried differential friction/convection during land interaction might tug it left.

[Phil]

Really??

 

We have been over this a million times.

 

What are you doing tonight?? Tim - its going to rain all the time forever. Tim - you called for ridging but it was an incredibly troughy and cold summer.

 

Are you really anxious about the hurricane and just looking for a fight? Maybe drinking?

 

Bringing up crap for no apparent reason at all. Find someone else to spar with... I am too busy with work.

Haha, wow. I figured you could handle a little ribbing. I guess I was wrong. Enjoy your evening.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, wow. I figured you could handle a little ribbing. I guess I was wrong. Enjoy your evening.

 

I can handle ribbing just fine... even like it.    Just don't want to get into another endless, hopeless drawn out debate with you on troughing vs ridging and how cold it was this summer.     

[Trainwreck]

I'm drinking a little if that matters fellas.

[Front Ranger]

Until I see it actually turn northward, my anxiety level will be quite high. Am still worried differential friction/convection during land interaction might tug it left.

 

Seems to be heading NNNW right now, which is also the direction of the coastline. So it will need to jog more to the west if it's to landfall in FL. Anything could happen, but odds seem lower now than this AM. The southern areas of the hurricane-warned area are almost certainly not going to see much impact.

[Front Ranger]

I'm drinking a little if that matters fellas.

 

Is the GFS looking sexier yet?

[Phil]

Seems to be heading NNNW right now, which is also the direction of the coastline. So it will need to jog more to the west if it's to landfall in FL. Anything could happen, but odds seem lower now than this AM. The southern areas of the hurricane-warned area are almost certainly not going to see much impact.

I'm focused on SE GA/Saint Simons. As long as it misses that area, I can relax. Most of my happiest memories took place around there. Probably more of a home to my heart than DC.

 

As for Matthew, given the double eyewall, the wobbles of the inner eyewall can be deceptive. The storm as a whole continues to wobble on a heading between NW and NNW.

[Deweydog]

I'm drinking a little if that matters fellas.

https://www.schickshadel.com/

[Farmboy]

Anyone getting rain?  The radar is showing lots of dark greens moving through, but so far I've just seen a few sprinkles...

[Front Ranger]

https://www.schickshadel.com/

 

Seems like a rush to judgement...