October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Were there any last minute changes with the 12Z euro?

Just slightly west and slightly weaker than the 00Z run.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has moved well west.  The low doesn't even make landfall anywhere near here.  The NWS and media had better begin back peddling now.

[snow_wizard]

At least appears Snowmizer will still see some decent winds at Ocean Shores.  Gusts to 60 knots or so.

[Phil]

Interesting how nature of the low frequency wavetrain has been to anticyclonically cycle over the NAO domain. Opposite of recent years.

 

In fact, spatially speaking, this is nearly the perfect inverse of 2014/15, which was a historically anomalous +NAO winter.

[seattleweatherguy]

The ECMWF has moved well west. The low doesn't even make landfall anywhere near here. The NWS and media had better begin back peddling now.

So what would be the max winds now

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF has moved well west.  The low doesn't even make landfall anywhere near here.  The NWS and media had better begin back peddling now.

 

 

My wife was leaving for SLC at 2:20 and they already cancelled her flight citing "weather".    

 

That is completely related to hype.     So stupid.

 

SEA has light rain and E13 and they cancelled a 2:20 flight.   

[snow_wizard]

So what would be the max winds now

 

Maybe some gusts to 50 mph or the low 50s near the water.  A lot like yesterday.  Probably nothing noteworthy at all east of 167 and 405.

[crf450ish]

updated as of 9:55 am...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/todays-major-storm-difficult-forecast.html

[snow_wizard]

I'm actually a bit disappointed for the people on here who like windstorms.  I wouldn't have minded something maybe 10 to 20 mph less than 2006.

[seattleweatherguy]

Maybe some gusts to 50 mph or the low 50s near the water. A lot like yesterday. Probably nothing noteworthy at all east of 167 and 405.

So like yesterday...

[crf450ish]

Interesting how nature of the low frequency wavetrain has been to anticyclonically cycle over the NAO domain. Opposite of recent years.

 

In fact, spatially speaking, this is nearly the perfect inverse of 2014/15, which was a historically anomalous +NAO winter.

Translation into lamens terms..... colder and wetter for the northwest?

[snow_wizard]

So like yesterday...

 

Probably.

[seattleweatherguy]

Probably.

Then no need for a hotel. Panic too fast

[snow_wizard]

Translation into lamens terms..... colder and wetter for the northwest?

 

Opposite of 14-15 can't be a bad thing.  Decent chance of a -NAO / -PNA winter.  Fun times if that happens.

[TT-SEA]

Then no need for a hotel. Panic too fast

 

 

No need for a hotel.   

[snow_wizard]

Dang... Ugh. This storm started off looking so promising earlier this week. Should have figured the natural progression of these storms (to turn more W/NW) would rule again.

 

Knowing these model biases is a very useful thing.  I don't know why they can't correct that problem.

[bainbridgekid]

My wife was leaving for SLC at 2:20 and they already cancelled her flight citing "weather".    

 

That is completely related to hype.     So stupid.

 

SEA has light rain and E13 and they cancelled a 2:20 flight.   

That's really silly. The runways are specifically built facing N/S to minimize the impact of these kinds of storms.

 

The airport even said the other day they are not expecting many issues from this storm.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/sea-tac-airport-expecting-normal-operations-during-dual-wind-storms

[seattleweatherguy]

No need for a hotel.

Guys thanks for all your help through this

[Tundra]

I'm actually a bit disappointed for the people on here who like windstorms.  I wouldn't have minded something maybe 10 to 20 mph less than 2006.

 

I prefer Blizzards.

[MossMan]

Windstorms definitely are the hardest thing to predict in this area...even more so than snow events in my opinion.

[snow_wizard]

That's really silly. The runways are specifically built facing N/S to minimize the impact of these kinds of storms.

 

The airport even said the other day they are not expecting many issues from this storm.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/sea-tac-airport-expecting-normal-operations-during-dual-wind-storms

 

I was going to say...so much for the storm not effecting anything.  This sets the stage for a boy who cried wolf scenario.

[snow_wizard]

I prefer Blizzards.

 

Me too.  Even dry Arctic blasts.

[MossMan]

Though let's not all forget...even a small error in the models will cause huge differences with today's event! Don't throw your generator in the lake just yet!

[Abbotsford_wx]

The ECMWF has moved well west.  The low doesn't even make landfall anywhere near here.  The NWS and media had better begin back peddling now.

 

Haven't seen it but I'd say it's an outlier based on the satellite images.

[MossMan]

Haven't seen it but I'd say it's an outlier based on the satellite images.

I agree with this just looking at the visual!

[FroYoBro]

No impressive gusts on the OR coast yet... Highest I see is 32mph at Newport Airport. There was a 57mph reading at a Long Prairie station @ 11:13, but that's also at 1093ft.

 

Crescent City in far northern California has been getting some gusty winds for the last 30 minutes. I would think Oregon coast locations should start seeing a ramp up soon. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=eka&sid=KCEC&num=72&raw=0

[TT-SEA]

I was going to say...so much for the storm not effecting anything. This sets the stage for a boy who cried wolf scenario.

They now put her on a 5:55 pm flight which is more likely to be effected by "weather".

 

I showed her the KOMO story about normal operations at SEA regardless of wind when it was cancelled. I think Alaska Airlines is taking advantage of the public hype to consolidate flights that were not full. They have to know this is not a big deal weatherwise for the airport. They are based in Seattle!

[bainbridgekid]

They now put her on a 5:55 pm flight which is more likely to be effected by "weather".

 

I showed her the KOMO story about normal operations at SEA regardless of wind when it was cancelled. I think Alaska Airlines is taking advantage of the public hype to consolidate flights that were not full. They have to know this is not a big deal weatherwise for the airport. They are based in Seattle!

Was about to say. I'm sure that's exactly what they are doing.

 

There isn't even any other weather in the rest of the country that could have delayed her plane getting to Seattle. We are practically the only place even getting any rain.

 

[TT-SEA]

Was about to say. I'm sure that's exactly what they are doing.

 

There isn't even any other weather in the rest of the country that could have delayed her plane getting to Seattle. We are practically the only place even getting any rain.

 

NatLoop_Small.gif

 

 

She was on a direct flight to Salt Lake City.  

 

Its partly cloudy and 70 in SLC with a wind at 8 mph.  

[snow_wizard]

Haven't seen it but I'd say it's an outlier based on the satellite images.

 

We'll see, but it was way west of previous runs.  I can't imagine that model going the wrong way this late in the game.

[luterra]

Impressive squall just moved through the Corvallis area (11:50a) with brief but intense winds, rapid pressure rise.  Gust 38 mph at Corvallis airport, 102 mph on Marys Peak.  Suspect this may be our peak winds with this event.  Not a historic storm by any means but still the strongest of this series.  Power flickered but still on.

 

I am up to 6.75" rain in October.

[MossMan]

We'll see, but it was way west of previous runs. I can't imagine that model going the wrong way this late in the game.

How did the NAM look?

[snow_wizard]

Gust to 56 at a buoy off the Oregon Coast.

[Parksvillewx]

Up here, BC Ferries has cancelled all remaining sailings for the day between the mainland, Vancouver Island and the gulf islands. Vancouver and the southern island look like they're going to get blasted!

[snow_wizard]

How did the NAM look?

 

West of the 0z, but still pretty good for a Seattle wind event.

[bainbridgekid]

She was on a direct flight to Salt Lake City.  

 

Its partly cloudy and 70 in SLC with a wind at 8 mph.  

I figured. I meant that her plane shouldn't have had any problem getting too Seattle from wherever it came since thee weather in the rest of the country is so tame.

[TT-SEA]

I figured. I meant that her plane shouldn't have had any problem getting too Seattle from wherever it came before that.

 

 

Ahh... good point.   

[FroYoBro]

The wind has hit the southern Oregon coast with the heavy rain down there.

 

Brookings getting gusts around 50 mph. 

[Phil]

Translation into lamens terms..... colder and wetter for the northwest?

Colder, I think yes. Not sure about wetter.

[snow_wizard]

Up here, BC Ferries has cancelled all remaining sailings for the day between the mainland, Vancouver Island and the gulf islands. Vancouver and the southern island look like they're going to get blasted!

 

Probably a good move there.