james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I heard Euro is a dud for the next 10 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Who is JB?Joe Bastardi, he owns a company called WeatherBell Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I heard Euro is a dud for the next 10 daysYup, it has pieces of energy all over the place. I don't expect models to show a storm every run this far out anyway. Within Day 5, Euro is usually better than GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z EPS with a strong 1st piece on the 28th...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png Too much spread among ensemble members on the second piece... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Pretty amazing. More than half the snow they had all last season from the first (pre-winter) storm 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z EPS...another look... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 After Thanksgiving, the pattern on the CFSv2 seems to target storms diving down into the Rockies/SW and rounding the base of a longwave trough up into the Lakes/OV region. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png Once we get beyond the 10th of December, the pattern may really amplify and the Taste of the Siberian Express could be on the table...the Arctic is showing signs of cooling dramatically Week 2-4 and may be an indication of Cross Polar Flow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ Tom Cohen tweeted that the PV will perhaps regain it's composure a bit but that it is not a bad signal this time of year as it can mean more cold on our side going into the heart of December. Can we just roll with this and push the reset button all winter?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ Tom Cohen tweeted that the PV will perhaps regain it's composure a bit but that it is not a bad signal this time of year as it can mean more cold on our side going into the heart of December. Can we just roll with this and push the reset button all winter?? 20161121 EPS 12z 216hr surf & 850mb.PNGAmen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Nice illustration of what happens when the seasonal variation hits in the NE PAC bc of the warmer waters and high latitude blocking. GOA trough replaced by a Ridge...however, the LRC will continue along and shift the storm track/jet stream south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 No joke, this is going to be a fun pattern going forward... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Big earthquake just hit Japan with a 3 M tsunami about to hit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 18z GFS really bombing out the first system Sub 977 in S. WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 18z GFS really bombing out the first system Sub 977 in S. WIOh my Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yeah not much cold air with it at all but looks like 40-50 mph gusts on this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 2nd storm pushed way south and quick on 18z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Mr flowers is getting excited. He says the Canadian shows his area getting blasted! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 18z GEFS jumping on a powerful GL storm...initially starts out of the TX Panhandle region, then bombs out heading NE... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png 2nd system digs farther south coming out of the GOM...too much spread if this becomes an EC storm or OV cutter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Should we panic yet???LOL, it's the 18z GFS and we are 8 days away. Panic city!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 He's not wrong, GGEM crushes Eastern Nebraska. Gotta love being the bullseye 9 days away #SaidNoOneEver 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 12z EPS Control still shows the Dec 1 storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 12z EPS Control still shows the Dec 1 storm. euro.PNG is that all snow in ia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Noticed there was a lack of a location to discuss upcoming storm systems so I made a 5+ days out thread similar to last winter's. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1449-winter-2016-medium-to-long-range-discussion-5-days-out/Not sure if its necessary, wasn't a big fan of it last year, I guess we can see how it goes.... Meantime, I went and started a Snowfall Contest for this year.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Not sure if its necessary, wasn't a big fan of it last year, I guess we can see how it goes.... Meantime, I went and started a Snowfall Contest for this year....ok, I'll get rid of it. I can see why some wouldn't like it. EDIT: can't, It's up to you whether to keep it or not, 100% your call. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 euro1.PNGNice. Model madness! But its a week+ away so what else would we expect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 00z GFS has a very similar look compared to the Euro control run Bud posted, but lacking the cold air... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Hey Bud, did the Euro Control have 2 systems or just 1 main one on the 1st??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Tom, it had two systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Highest LES totals thus far have been in Oswego county, NY...over 3 Feet in some spots! ...OSWEGO COUNTY...6 E LACONA 40.0 600 PM 11/21 COCORAHS8 NNW REDFIELD 37.0 800 PM 11/21 COCORAHS5 S LORRAINE 37.0 450 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER2 NE ORWELL 34.0 449 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER4 E SMARTVILLE 33.0 410 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 17.0 700 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Tom, it had two systems.Interesting, should be fun trying to see which models had the right idea with these systems. It's starting to be a very complex situation. Now the 00z GFS wants to paint an EC storm with the second storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Hope it's not a trend but now the bigger storm is on Monday with the earlier piece and that thing is so strong it screws everything up after that for the rest of the week. Of course it's too warm for snow too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Gem gets the low down in the 960's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Thought I was going to have something great to say about the weeklies tonight but it looks like a repeat of last year's pattern on this run only colder. Not interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112200/168/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112200/180/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 I think models are off. They're overplaying how far south this thing will actually go. I think the GGEM actually has a good handle on the track. It would make more sense this time of year to see the further NW solutions. We all know this. Plus, being in the jackpot this far out, is useless. We've been in the jackpot for days and days, even until 12 hours out, and suddenly get missed. Trends will be important within 144 hr range, even then the jumps still happen. Not too concerned at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Gem gets the low down in the 960'sLol what?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 East coast storm ?? Gotta love it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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