November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Ugghhh. 52F and raining here.

57F and not a cloud in the sky here! It must be July 8th!

[MossMan]

I remember the alders were still dropping their leaves here when the snow started falling in December 2008.

I remember that as well! Even my large cherry tree had leaves at the start of that event! Was quite warm up to the fun times, I remember washing the cars over Thanksgiving weekend 2008 in my shorts!

[Jesse]

New ECMWF monthlies are ugly..complete about-face from the October run. Every month from December - March features a +EPO/GOA vortex, neutral PNA/flat ridge south of the Aleutians.

 

Looks sort of like 1974/75 or 1975/76. January and February are particularly horrid looking, with a giant vortex from the Aleutians all the way through Alaska, into the western Arctic. Strong west/southwest flow dominates both months. End result is a wetter and warmer than average winter.

I could have sworn Jim was just praising this run last night. Or maybe that was the weeklies.

[MossMan]

Our alders start dropping leaves in June! They were mostly bare up here by early October. And they never turn colors... they just turn ugly brown and fall off.

 

I don't like alders. They make a mess in my yard every summer. One hot day and they drop leaves.

I don't like Alders either, we had a lot of them at the golf course I worked at for 10yrs...so messy and weak, if it wasn't the leaves it would be branches or the entire tree falling in even weak windstorms.

[Tundra]

New ECMWF monthlies are ugly..complete about-face from the October run. Every month from December - March features a +EPO/GOA vortex, neutral PNA/flat ridge south of the Aleutians.

 

Looks sort of like 1974/75 or 1975/76. January and February are particularly horrid looking, with a giant vortex from the Aleutians all the way through Alaska, into the western Arctic. Strong west/southwest flow dominates both months. End result is a wetter and warmer than average winter.

 

Combine that with the newest edition of the NCAR_CESM and the newest edition of the EURO monthlies and it might be time to stick a fork in this Winter. I have no more expectations for this Winter which might be a good thing because anything we get will seem fantastic.

[Phil]

I could have sworn Jim was just praising this run last night. Or maybe that was the weeklies.

Well the monthlies just came out a few hours ago, so whatever he was praising it certainly wasn't this.

[TT-SEA]

Combine that with the newest edition of the NCAR_CESM and the newest edition of the EURO monthlies and it might be time to stick a fork in this Winter. I have no more expectations for this Winter which might be a good thing because anything we get will seem fantastic.

 

 

Stick a fork in it on November 8th??  

 

Again, it could be a warm and wet winter and we still have a memorable week of cold and snow.  

[Jesse]

Well the monthlies just came out a few hours ago, so whatever he was praising it certainly wasn't this.

Hopefully this will teach us all an important lesson about getting excited over ensemble means that show a flat Aleutian ridge.

[Phil]

Combine that with the newest edition of the NCAR_CESM and the newest edition of the EURO monthlies and it might be time to stick a fork in this Winter. I have no more expectations for this Winter which might be a good thing because anything we get will seem fantastic.

Lol, no reason to take it that far. One great event can make an entire winter worthwhile, IMO.

[Jesse]

Back in the world of non-monthly long range models, the 12Z GFS was pretty decent.

[ShawniganLake]

New ECMWF monthlies are ugly..complete about-face from the October run. Every month from December - March features a +EPO/GOA vortex, neutral PNA/flat ridge south of the Aleutians.

 

Looks sort of like 1974/75 or 1975/76. January and February are particularly horrid looking, with a giant vortex from the Aleutians all the way through Alaska, into the western Arctic. Strong west/southwest flow dominates both months. End result is a wetter and warmer than average winter.

Those mid 70's analogs aren't too depressing for northern Parts of the PNW.  Both were snowier than average winters in SW BC.  Many days featured below average temps and snowfall.  Probably equal to or better than anything we have seen since 08-09. 

[Front Ranger]

Next week looks much cooler... not extremely wet though as a trough digs all the way into the Western US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110812/gfs_z500_mslp_us_35.png

 

Finally!

[TT-SEA]

61 at SEA and 66 here at 10 a.m.

 

Impressive.   

 

Truly feels like a nice summer day out there... as long as you don't look at the sun angle and the trees.  

[Front Ranger]

61 at SEA and 66 here at 10 a.m.

 

Impressive.

 

Truly feels like a nice summer day out there... as long as you don't look at the sun angle and the trees.

Most people will be indoors most the day working, and once they get off at 5, it will be totally dark and rapidly cooling off.

[TT-SEA]

Most people will be indoors most the day working, and once they get off at 5, it will be totally dark and rapidly cooling off.

 

 

Not me.    Working from home today.  

[TT-SEA]

Dahlias and roses still blooming in November...

 

 

[Jesse]

Hard to believe we're only two months away from January flower posts.

[Weather101]

61F here. Warm lol

[TT-SEA]

Hard to believe we're only two months away from January flower posts.

 

I go along with nature... I post spring flowers, fall colors, late blooms, and snowy winter scenes. 

 

Actually... if we follow the last 2 years then the daffodils will be coming up in exactly 2 months.  

[Jesse]

I go along with nature... I post spring flowers, fall colors, late blooms, and snowy winter scenes.

 

Actually... if we follow the last 2 years then the daffodils will be coming up in exactly 2 months.

Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll come up before Christmas this year. :)

[ShawniganLake]

I go along with nature... I post spring flowers, fall colors, late blooms, and snowy winter scenes. 

 

Actually... if we follow the last 2 years then the daffodils will be coming up in exactly 2 months.  

If this keeps up it could be some late December Daffodil posts.  Personally I think December ends up chilly, though. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ahhhhhh, refreshing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110812/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

[TT-SEA]

If this keeps up it could be some late December Daffodil posts. Personally I think December ends up chilly, though.

If this keeps up it will be very bad for the fruit trees.

[Jesse]

If this keeps up it could be some late December Daffodil posts. Personally I think December ends up chilly, though.

We both had the same thought!

[ShawniganLake]

If this keeps up it will be very bad for the fruit trees.

Yea, the buds on the cherry trees are looking a bit plump for the fall.  Hopefully some frosts in the next few weeks will keep things in check. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... looks chilly.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-OQgvDw.png

[Bham_Guy]

71° at BLI

[Jesse]

71° at BLI

I imagine that must be a new monthly record.

[TT-SEA]

70 here now.

[ShawniganLake]

The payoff for this is going to be insane. 

[catnip]

71° at BLI

 

Looks like they did well at breaking their old record of 63 from back in 2008. 

[Jesse]

The payoff for this is going to be insane.

I wouldn't hold my breath. Have you even seen the new Euro monthlies??

[TT-SEA]

The payoff for this is going to be insane.

 

All warm weather lately has been offset with endless cold.

[Bham_Guy]

I imagine that must be a new monthly record.

 

I believe it is - previous record was 69 from 1949 and also the other day.

[ShawniganLake]

I believe it is - previous record was 69 from 1949 and also the other day.

Jim is loving this. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm much cooler than everyone else this morning. Even had heavy fog (which quickly cleared around 7 for some reason) earlier.

[BLI snowman]

Inversion doing its job in the Willamette Valley, only 57 at SLE.

[stuffradio]

I wouldn't hold my breath. Have you even seen the new Euro monthlies??

Since when do we hold the monthlies as gospel? We all know the weeklies and monthlies change often.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... looks chilly.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-OQgvDw.png

 

Actually moves up the timing of the chilliness way before that. Begins at day 7. Good run, good trends.

[Jesse]

Since when do we hold the monthlies as gospel? We all know the weeklies and monthlies change often.

I was being a little sarcastic.

 

As far as I can tell the Euro weeklies and monthlies have been pretty bad this year. Phil was a big proponent of that narrative much of the time.