November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

 

 

18z GFS Day 8 to 14 500mb composite analog looks decent to me. Nice positive anomaly with some amplification and cool to chilly troughing over us.

 

 

The mean trough is further offshore than I'd like it to be on that map. Still an improvement from the current pattern though.

[Gradient Keeper]

The mean trough is further offshore than I'd like it to be on that map. Still an improvement from the current pattern though.

Agreed.

[snow_wizard]

This Winter doesn't look good. If we get snow or no snow isn't the bigger issue. It's the long term issue regarding our warming climate. I voted for Clinton mostly in part that we have a better chance to address global warming and the need for an Oregon Coastal Radar. Now with Trump as President those issues along with other weather and environmental issues, will not get resolved or even get worse.

Much of it is cyclical.

[snow_wizard]

This warmth is getting absurd.

It's almost over.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 3 minutes!!!!

Let's get a colder run!

[luminen]

This Winter doesn't look good. If we get snow or no snow isn't the bigger issue. It's the long term issue regarding our warming climate. I voted for Clinton mostly in part that we have a better chance to address global warming and the need for an Oregon Coastal Radar. Now with Trump as President those issues along with other weather and environmental issues, will not get resolved or even get worse.

 

The president has nothing to do with the Oregon coast getting radar. 

[Bryant]

The president has nothing to do with the Oregon coast getting radar.

That was why he voted Hilary though!

[luminen]

I can't tell if you're sarcastic or not but at any rate, I seriously doubt Hillary cares about that. And even if she did, it would be so far down on the totem pole.

 

What I'd love to see is a global radar... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Central Oregon proposed Radar Sites

I just whipped this up on Paint. Two proposed Radar sites to the east/southeast of Bend. One is near Alfalfa at 3500' and the other just east of Millican/Highway 20 is up around 4500'. Neither area is populated and are kind of in the middle of nowhere. I think either would give very good Radar coverage for Bend and Redmond, as well as improved coverage for La Pine, Chemult, Sunriver, Crescent, Gilchrist, Burns, Hampton, Mitchell, John Day, Prineville, Mitchell, and other communities.

 

http://i.imgur.com/jWkoK3g.pngThe only possible drawbacks are they aren't up on a hill or ridge. Horse Ridge isn't an option due to it being designated a natural area. I would have included a 3rd site on Pine Mountain, but there is the Observatory up there, so not sure if that would be an option either. I also considered Pilot Butte over the east side of Bend up at 4100' - 4300'. My only concern with the Millican site is the beam might be blocked by the elevated terrain off to the southwest. Any thoughts or feedback would be cool, real cool, AND appreciated.

[Front Ranger]

PDX is running an average maximum of 64.1F so far this month. The average of the record highs during this stretch was 67.9F - in other words, we've been within 3.8 degrees of the record high, on average, through the first 9 days of November. Yikes. 

 

It's been very impressive. Of course, the difference between average highs and record highs now is smaller than most of the rest of the year.

 

1921 and 1949 are probably the closest to what we've seen to start this month in many places.

[Deweydog]

It's been very impressive. Of course, the difference between average highs and record highs now is smaller than most of the rest of the year.

 

1921 and 1949 are probably the closest to what we've seen to start this month in many places.

2006-13!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Another record high set today in Klamath Falls. 69 degrees beating the record of 66 in 1955.

[GHweatherChris]

Central Oregon proposed Radar Sites

I just whipped this up on Paint. Two proposed Radar sites to the east/southeast of Bend. One is near Alfalfa at 3500' and the other just east of Millican/Highway 20 is up around 4500'. Neither area is populated and are kind of in the middle of nowhere. I think either would give very good Radar coverage for Bend and Redmond, as well as improved coverage for La Pine, Chemult, Sunriver, Crescent, Gilchrist, Burns, Hampton, Mitchell, John Day, Prineville, Mitchell, and other communities.

 

http://i.imgur.com/jWkoK3g.pngThe only possible drawbacks are they aren't up on a hill or ridge. Horse Ridge isn't an option due to it being designated a natural area. I would have included a 3rd site on Pine Mountain, but there is the Observatory up there, so not sure if that would be an option either. I also considered Pilot Butte over the east side of Bend up at 4100' - 4300'. My only concern with the Millican site is the beam might be blocked by the elevated terrain off to the southwest. Any thoughts or feedback would be cool, real cool, AND appreciated.

Coastal radar is more important in Oregon.

[wx_statman]

It's been very impressive. Of course, the difference between average highs and record highs now is smaller than most of the rest of the year.

 

1921 and 1949 are probably the closest to what we've seen to start this month in many places.

 

1941, 1970, 1976, and 1980 appear to be just as close...

[snow_wizard]

Coastal radar is more important in Oregon.

No doubt the coastal radar in WA has proven invaluable. We were totally blind before that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Coastal radar is more important in Oregon.

Oh, yeah I agree. Put that one near Florence.

[Gradient Keeper]

I wouldn't expect any improvement in the models or to see any possible colder solutions for the next 2-4 days if we do at all as beginning around the 17th-18th both the PNA tanks and EPO is negative.

[snow_wizard]

Right now I think we have a shot at seeing our first high in the 40s around the 15th or so, and our first high in the 30s should be around December 10. The first 30s is just an average of what happens with years that have major November torches with neutral to cold ENSO. It is extremely interesting the two most extreme negative PNA episodes of the 20th century (Jan 1909 and Jan 1950) both had major November torches with first highs in the 30s in early December.

[Deweydog]

Any guesses on when we see our first high in the teens?

[Gradient Keeper]

Any guesses on when we see our first high in the teens?

January 9th

[snow_wizard]

Any guesses on when we see our first high in the teens?

More like if on that. I would say we have an above average shot at it though. Given the way this is unfolding the most likely time frame would be Dec 20 to Jan 20 or so.

[BLI snowman]

Man, this winter has suuucked.

[Sometimesdylan]

Central Oregon proposed Radar Sites

I just whipped this up on Paint. Two proposed Radar sites to the east/southeast of Bend. One is near Alfalfa at 3500' and the other just east of Millican/Highway 20 is up around 4500'. Neither area is populated and are kind of in the middle of nowhere. I think either would give very good Radar coverage for Bend and Redmond, as well as improved coverage for La Pine, Chemult, Sunriver, Crescent, Gilchrist, Burns, Hampton, Mitchell, John Day, Prineville, Mitchell, and other communities.

 

http://i.imgur.com/jWkoK3g.pngThe only possible drawbacks are they aren't up on a hill or ridge. Horse Ridge isn't an option due to it being designated a natural area. I would have included a 3rd site on Pine Mountain, but there is the Observatory up there, so not sure if that would be an option either. I also considered Pilot Butte over the east side of Bend up at 4100' - 4300'. My only concern with the Millican site is the beam might be blocked by the elevated terrain off to the southwest. Any thoughts or feedback would be cool, real cool, AND appreciated.

 

Lucky! No inland radar here

[Weather101]

Any guesses on when we see our first high in the teens?

April 1st

[Gradient Keeper]

At 2:46 AM it feels like a Summer night out here near west Gresham. The temp is 59.7 with a 20-25mph east wind.

 

This is November? Yeah, sure.

[westcoastexpat]

Any guesses on when we see our first high in the teens?

 

Given the November torch and December warning shots, we'll probably stay below 20F for the entirety of the Jan 1-31 period. Science!

[wx_statman]

Warmest start to November in PDX history, per Mark Nelsen's blog. No real surprise there.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 42 here this morning! Brrr....

[TT-SEA]

Dropped to 42 here this morning! Brrr....

 

 

62 here this morning and the sun is just coming up.   

[FroYoBro]

Warmest start to November in PDX history, per Mark Nelsen's blog. No real surprise there.

 

It has actually been really enjoyable. I'm not sure why people are getting so nervous about the winter when it is only November. 

[crf450ish]

Raking leafs yesterday in a t shirt and shorts with tennis shoes yesterday. Temp was 65 with barely 30% humidity. Couldn't believe it's November. This time last year it was frosty most morning with highs in the 40's. Our first snow last year was on November 5.

 

I'm looking forward to being lambasted with cold and snow later.

[TT-SEA]

Morning in Seattle...

 

[Jesse]

It has actually been really enjoyable. I'm not sure why people are getting so nervous about the winter when it is only November.

To be fair, November/December has kind of been our winter lately. People are used to that timing. And there is never a guarantee we will be hit later.

[stuffradio]

Today's CFSv2 Monthly 2m temps are for a cold west coast in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night's 00z CFS showed a pretty nice arctic outbreak in mid-January. Score!

[Front Ranger]

Man, this winter has suuucked.

 

It has been beyond sucky here. 

 

The coldest high so far at DEN is 49 (and only one high in the 50s). Coldest low is 32 (this is truly unbelievable). No measurable precip since 10/12, and only 4 days with small amounts since 9/16.

 

Absolutely absurd. Fortunately, it looks like things start to change next week.

[Jesse]

The torch looks to last through Monday now!

[Front Ranger]

Morning in Seattle...

 

 

Nothing quite as moving as construction cranes rising above the fog.

[MossMan]

To be fair, November/December has kind of been our winter lately. People are used to that timing. And there is never a guarantee we will be hit later.

People were really sweating during November of 2008...literally!

[MossMan]

From very little spread to not a clue!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml