November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

We set our record high on Wednesday of 53. Beat 52 degrees from 1997.

Tied our record on Tues with 49 from 2009.

 

Hope it cools down and we see some snow early next week.... We'll see.....

Those are both El Nino years. Goes to show there is some really weird stuff going on this year. I'm still betting the backlash will be amazing. Probably even more so that I was originally thinking.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is going for highs in the upper 40s for the Seattle area next Wednesday and Thursday. That will feel really cold after this.

[Jesse]

Those are both El Nino years. Goes to show there is some really weird stuff going on this year. I'm still betting the backlash will be amazing. Probably even more so that I was originally thinking.

 

You are setting yourself up for a tremendous amount of disappointment.

[Gradient Keeper]

When the frigid conditions arrive end of November and throughout December it's going to seem so much colder initially due to this abnormally warm start to the month. Our bodies will have to acclimate.

 

SNOW!

[snow_wizard]

For those interested, here are the highest average maximums at PDX for November 1-10, all-time:

 

64.5 in 2016

62.2 in 1949

61.8 in 1941

61.7 in 1976

61.7 in 1970

61.4 in 1981

61.0 in 1980

Kind of interesting to note Seattle checked in with 60.7 during that period in 1892. I would imagine that would put Portland around 62.

 

Also pretty interesting those are all over 30 years ago. Pretty good sign our regime has changed somehow.

[snow_wizard]

When the frigid conditions arrive end of November and throughout December it's going to seem so much colder initially due to this abnormally warm start to the month. Our bodies will have to acclimate.

 

SNOW!

I agree...although the wait could be longer than late this month.

[snow_wizard]

You are setting yourself up for a tremendous amount of disappointment.

This is what I wanted. Why would I be unhappy about it. It appears we will switch to a -PNA next week and see temps begin to get chillier. Historically speaking we want to see a roller coaster after this.

[wx_statman]

Kind of interesting to note Seattle checked in with 60.7 during that period in 1892. I would imagine that would put Portland around 62.

 

Also pretty interesting those are all over 30 years ago. Pretty good sign our regime has changed somehow.

 

54.2, with a max of 62 on the 3rd. Looks like the warmth was concentrated further north that month. Tacoma hit 70 on the 3rd.

[Jesse]

This is what I wanted. Why would I be unhappy about it. It appears we will switch to a -PNA next week and see temps begin to get chillier. Historically speaking we want to see a roller coaster after this.

 

Fair enough. I just don't want to see you get yourself too worked up. Ridiculously high expectations probably aren't a good way to go for a period two months in the future, even if you are seeing good signs right now. Probably best to stay somewhere in the middle. 

[BLI snowman]

When the frigid conditions arrive end of November and throughout December it's going to seem so much colder initially due to this abnormally warm start to the month. Our bodies will have to acclimate.

 

SNOW!

 

I forget what frost looks like.

[Deweydog]

Second half of the month might end up cooler than the first half.

[BLI snowman]

Second half of the month might end up cooler than the first half.

 

First half of the month might end up warmer than the first half of October.

[Deweydog]

First half of the month might end up warmer than the first half of October.

Diversity is dead!

[TT-SEA]

9th day in a row above 60 at SEA.

 

Surprisingly... the GFS MOS says another day tomorrow with 62 to make it 10 days and then only in the 50s on Sunday with raining moving in sooner than previously shown.

[Jesse]

I forget what frost looks like.

 

How long has it been? Early February?

[BLI snowman]

How long has it been? Early February?

 

At PDX? The last freeze was a frigid 32 on Groundhog's Day. Last "hard" freeze was a 29 on January 10. And the last likely time that any frost formed was 35 on March 29. 

 

Outlying areas aren't quite as pathetic of course, but that's a pretty unbelievably long stretch. 

[snow_wizard]

How long has it been? Early February?

I had a light frost here in October.

[Timmy Supercell]

First half of the month might end up warmer than the first half of October.

 

No surprises here. October average high was almost as anomalously cold as November so far has been anomalously warm.

[Gradient Keeper]

I forget what frost looks like.

I think it's sort of white, or ... clear like translucent. I did hear it's cold feeling. An old timer told me about it. He said back in the day that when you'd walk on a frosty ground it would make a "crunch" type sound. I had never heard of such a thing and I just assumed he was a drunk.

[Gradient Keeper]

Call me crazy, no really, but I actually think the 500mb pattern on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF is not that bad in that the ridge placement offshore is in a great location if the flow turned favorably amplifying with blocking or retrogression. Also, chunks of very cold air finally dislodge from Mother Russia and visit Alaska, Yukon, Northern British Columbia, Alberta, Northwest Territories. Maybe the jet just progressively suppresses further and further south into December and the Siberian Polar Monkey greets us. Yeah.

[James Jones]

For those interested, here are the highest average maximums at PDX for November 1-10, all-time:

 

64.5 in 2016

62.2 in 1949

61.8 in 1941

61.7 in 1976

61.7 in 1970

61.4 in 1981

61.0 in 1980

I'd have to imagine this is #1 for minimums for the first 10 days as well. Just an insane torch.

[James Jones]

You are setting yourself up for a tremendous amount of disappointment.

This feels more like a continuation of the 2014-2016 torch than something setting us up for greatness. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect much this winter.

[MossMan]

This feels more like a continuation of the 2014-2016 torch than something setting us up for greatness. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect much this winter.

La Niña!! Dead Blob!! This winter will be different.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This feels more like a continuation of the 2014-2016 torch than something setting us up for greatness. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect much this winter.

 

Totally agree. 

[Phil]

Those are both El Nino years. Goes to show there is some really weird stuff going on this year. I'm still betting the backlash will be amazing. Probably even more so that I was originally thinking.

I'm starting to get cold feet, but maybe I'm just missing something. Wouldn't be surprising at all, given the unusual nature of the system state right now, but historically the ongoing progression isn't promising for (at least) the central and western states.

 

The background state that'd been dominating from May through September is no longer with us.

[Phil]

Call me crazy, no really, but I actually think the 500mb pattern on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF is not that bad in that the[/b] ridge placement offshore is in a great location[/b] if the flow turned favorably amplifying with blocking or retrogression. Also, chunks of very cold air finally dislodge from Mother Russia and visit Alaska, Yukon, Northern British Columbia, Alberta, Northwest Territories. Maybe the jet just progressively suppresses further and further south into December and the Siberian Polar Monkey greets us. Yeah.

The problem is when you have a broad, equatorward anticyclone over the NPAC like that, you lose poleward vertical WAFz/heat fluxes, which helps consolidate the PV/+EPO circulation.

 

At that point, it'll be very difficult to amplify/perturb that regime without favorable forcing out of Eurasia.

[Phil]

Saw this posted on Twitter from Eric Webb. Temperatures are forecast to plunge to over 60 degrees below normal in parts of Eurasia. This would be record shattering.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/00EAA8C9-C8B8-4D74-A85E-750FBD5FAF03_zpslttdlwne.jpg

[MossMan]

Haha people are already proclaiming winter cancel on November 11th!

[Phil]

Saw this posted on Twitter from Eric Webb. Temperatures are forecast to plunge to over 60 degrees below normal in parts of Eurasia. This would be record shattering.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/00EAA8C9-C8B8-4D74-A85E-750FBD5FAF03_zpslttdlwne.jpg

The CMC and GFS are similar looking, FWIW.

[MossMan]

I wonder how all the weather weenies were taking all the warm weather in November of 1949?

[ShawniganLake]

I wonder how all the weather weenies were taking all the warm weather in November of 1949?

There weren't any back then. Warm weather was a blessing.

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW. The long range ensembles are towards the end of the month.

[Front Ranger]

This feels more like a continuation of the 2014-2016 torch than something setting us up for greatness. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect much this winter.

 

FWIW, October torched like crazy those years, and November did not. Preceding summers were also quite different, too. ENSO is different. Upper latitude blocking is different.

 

So, big picture...it's different, if nothing else.

[Front Ranger]

I'm starting to get cold feet, but maybe I'm just missing something. Wouldn't be surprising at all, given the unusual nature of the system state right now, but historically the ongoing progression isn't promising for (at least) the central and western states.

 

The background state that'd been dominating from May through September is no longer with us.

 

Eh, that's often the case, especially with weak ENSO. Fall is a transitional season, and there's a reason that for the PNW, November is often nothing like DJF overall.

[Phil]

Eh, that's often the case, especially with weak ENSO. Fall is a transitional season, and there's a reason that for the PNW, November is often nothing like DJF overall.

True, but then again there's often no background state whatsoever in weak ENSO years (more true in -QBO years, though). Right now we have this tendency towards a narrow Niña esque Walker Cell/high tropical wavenumber, with stagnant convection around 120E. The +QBO tends to strengthen the Niña convective background via a warming tropopause and an increase in off equator convection at the expense of near equator convection, which strengthens the NPAC high. However, the low frequency wavenumber has just been too high, and the Niña system too weak, for this conduit to be taken advantage of thus far.

 

The ongoing MJO/low wavenumber regime will eventually come to an end, at which point hopefully we'll see if/how the background state was altered.

[Deweydog]

I wonder how all the weather weenies were taking all the warm weather in November of 1949?

People were too busy protesting the potty training efforts of Donald Trump to worry about such trivial matters.

[Jesse]

People were too busy protesting the potty training efforts of Donald Trump to worry about such trivial matters.

Late bloomer.

[Deweydog]

Late bloomer.

Kids will let you know when they're ready.

[Trainwreck]

True, but then again there's often no background state whatsoever in weak ENSO years (more true in -QBO years, though). Right now we have this tendency towards a narrow Niña esque Walker Cell/high tropical wavenumber, with stagnant convection around 120E. The +QBO tends to strengthen the Niña convective background via a warming tropopause and an increase in off equator convection at the expense of near equator convection, which strengthens the NPAC high. However, the low frequency wavenumber has just been too high, and the Niña system too weak, for this conduit to be taken advantage of thus far.

 

The ongoing MJO/low wavenumber regime will eventually come to an end, at which point hopefully we'll see if/how the background state was altered.

Phil, no offense at all, but English please. It seems that you ride models and projections far too much without human interpretation. When something goes awry, you change your tune too fast, and when things go your way you say yep, it was that intraseasonal forcing or whatever mumbo jumbo you follow. If it was as easy as you make it sound, wouldn't Mark Nelsen, or Cliff Mass be multi billionaires with all the forecasts they could make with all that info that you supposedly have? Just sayin, no offense really. How's tgat Maryland weather by the way?

[snow_wizard]

This feels more like a continuation of the 2014-2016 torch than something setting us up for greatness. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect much this winter.

There have been no November torches in recent years. That's kind of been the point I've been trying to make lately. November is often the opposite of winter.