November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[The Swamp]

The NWS is going for a high near 50 in Seattle next Thursday.  Probably upper 40s away from the city.  That's going to feel pretty cold.

 

It's all about how it feels.  I pay attention.

[snow_wizard]

Wouldn't perfect progression be getting all the cold air on our side of the globe ASAP? I mean why would we only want "normal to even a bit below at times"??

I meant it's appearing we won't do too much too early as far as the cold is concerned.

[snow_wizard]

I'm sure we will get the cold stuff over to this side before March...that's what matters. (Like my mega technical language haha)

Indeed. I can't imagine why anyone would think this will stay locked in for three months. It is EXCEEDINGLY rare for November to torch in a cold ENSO season and then end up with a warm winter. It has happened 2 or 3 times, but the context was different in those cases.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So glad real late fall weather is on the way.

[stuffradio]

This morning, Michael Ventrice says the models are showing a flip to -PDO by March, and he's starting to believe it.

[snow_wizard]

This morning, Michael Ventrice says the models are showing a flip to -PDO by March, and he's starting to believe it.

If it's minus by March that would mean the pattern before that would feature anomalous GOA ridging. Imagine that.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty big MJO wave is in play now. It will be interesting to see how that shakes things up.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wind advisory today

[TT-SEA]

Already 58 at SEA this morning with a strong SW wind... looks like day 10 above 60 is going to happen.

 

Some good offshore flow periods shown on the 12Z GFS over the next couple weeks.   Certainly does not look like a real wet pattern.

[westcoastexpat]

Winter outlook from a pretty respected met in Canada:

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Winter outlook from a pretty respected met in Canada:

 

http://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/2016-winter-temperature.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&strip=all

 

http://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/2016-winter-precipitation.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&strip=all

 

 

 

Does he/she have a name?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like my first frost of the year should occur late next week. About 3 weeks later than the record latest freeze...

[westcoastexpat]

Does he/she have a name?

Anthony Farnell. He's done a really good job as a met for Global.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does he/she have a name?

 

Fred Jacoby

[westcoastexpat]

A lot of winter forecasts calling for average temps and higher precip for PNW. Pretty good IMO. If core of cold is in the north central regions with a raging jet, opens a lot of doors for some juicy storms here. Snow opportunities will certainly be higher than recent years.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like my first frost of the year should occur late next week. About 3 weeks later than the record latest freeze...

How long is the period of record?

 

The warmth has been widespread.  Chicago just had their latest first freeze in over 40 years. 

[westcoastexpat]

Amazing how 1953 continues to pop up as an analog. That has been going on for weeks now. Certainly a nice back loaded winter. We also need to remember the most recent torchy November was 2008. I sure remember how people were freaking out then too.

 

As much as I want to buy into this, Nov 2008 was quite different than Nov 2016:

 

 

Russia torched and Eastern NA was colder than normal... this time around, Russia is in the deep freeze and central NA to the midwest are in the core of the torch. Nov 2008 didn't have a raging GoA low... it had a ridge set up over the west, and slowly retrograded for a December jackpot.

[westcoastexpat]

How long is the period of record?

 

The warmth has been widespread.  Chicago just had their latest first freeze in over 40 years. 

 

PNW has had it pretty good compared to the rest of the country. The torch has been a lot stronger for central regions and the midwest.

 

Last two week temp anomaly:

 

[ShawniganLake]

PNW has had it pretty good compared to the rest of the country. The torch has been a lot stronger for central regions and the midwest.

IDK, the warmth has been unprecedented to start November here, especially south of the border.  We aren't capable of as large anomalies as inland locations. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How long is the period of record?

 

The warmth has been widespread.  Chicago just had their latest first freeze in over 40 years. 

 

1938-present

[Jesse]

It was nice to see today's system trend a little cooler in the home stretch. 850s drop close to zero this afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like my first frost of the year should occur late next week. About 3 weeks later than the record latest freeze...

 

Crazy right there.  I remember 1988 being very late where I was living at the time also.

 

Didn't you at least get some light frost in October?

[snow_wizard]

PNW has had it pretty good compared to the rest of the country. The torch has been a lot stronger for central regions and the midwest.

 

Last two week temp anomaly:

 

TempAnomaly.png

 

I'm becoming increasingly convinced a nationwide cold wave is probably in the cards later on.  The anomaly areas are incredibly strong and expansive this season.  Mother Nature loves to do full reversals.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I find rather interesting is Seattle didn't drop to 32 until December 10 in 1929. We all know what came after that.

 

I'm going to do a post in the next couple of days making the case for a cold winter. There will be some things in there I haven't mentioned yet. It's quite impressive how many of the extreme anomalies we have seen this year ended up being precursors for great winters.

[ShawniganLake]

A bit gusty out there this morning. 47mph at Everett.

[snow_wizard]

As much as I want to buy into this, Nov 2008 was quite different than Nov 2016:

 

 

Russia torched and Eastern NA was colder than normal... this time around, Russia is in the deep freeze and central NA to the midwest are in the core of the torch. Nov 2008 didn't have a raging GoA low... it had a ridge set up over the west, and slowly retrograded for a December jackpot.

There's a lot more cold available this year it would appear. 2008 was nothing but warm except for tiny areas of cold. There is a treasure trove in Asia right now.

[snow_wizard]

It seems I'm pretty much alone thinking the winter will be cold. Kind of reminds of being the only one that thought Trump had a decent chance of winning.

 

All I can say is the signs people are seeing as being bad have historically been the exact opposite.

[snow_wizard]

At this point it appears mid Dec to early Feb will be our time to score this winter. That's according to a composite of what followed most of the extremely anomalous events we have seen over the past 5 months.

[ShawniganLake]

It seems I'm pretty much alone thinking the winter will be cold. Kind of reminds of being the only one that thought Trump had a decent chance of winning.

 

All I can say is the signs people are seeing as being bad have historically been the exact opposite.

I think it's likely 2 of the next 4 months end up below average here. I originally was thinking December and February, though.

[bainbridgekid]

40 mph gust at SEA.

[snow_wizard]

I think it's likely 2 of the next 4 months end up below average here. I originally was thinking December and February, though.

I'm glad to not be the only one. To sustain such warmth during a cold ENSO season is EXTREMELY rare. You could even argue the scope of the warmth sets up the potential for historic cold later on.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm glad to not be the only one. To sustain such warmth during a cold ENSO season is EXTREMELY rare. You could even argue the scope of the warmth sets up the potential for historic cold later on.

 

Analogs only get us to far. The sample size is small, and the atmospheric is too complex to mimic a season exactly. There are so many small factors that can change the game, regardless of the pattern.

 

I also agree that here will be a reversal for this side of the globe at some point. It's not going to be a torch all winter.

 

But I don't think it's a slam dunk for the PNW.  Whenever that cold moves over, it might sideswipe us to the east.  A Gulf of Alaska upper ridge could easily set up in an unfavorable location and waste the opportunity. It's dangerous to be so sure that it will hit us. And we can only tell when a reversal is in the cards at least in the medium/long range, and right now, the models are not showing it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy s**t right there.  I remember 1988 being very late where I was living at the time also.

 

Didn't you at least get some light frost in October?

 

I may have had a very light frost. I can't remember if it was October or September, but the low was 35, so not a freeze. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It seems I'm pretty much alone thinking the winter will be cold. Kind of reminds of being the only one that thought Trump had a decent chance of winning.

 

All I can say is the signs people are seeing as being bad have historically been the exact opposite.

 

True, but I don't know if politics and weather are related. I am so happy you were right about Trump!

[snow_wizard]

A couple of decently chilly days on the ECMWF for next week. Low heights and weak surface gradients. Even normal will feel pretty chilly at this point.

[Sometimesdylan]

It's just nice to have a little optimism...

 

Dutch Harbor AK has a 41 months above normal temp. Wonder when the record is gonna fall.

[Sometimesdylan]

It's definitely looking like we're gonna be jumping into winter up here. It seems like the last couple years we'd get a nice period of normal/below Normal temps and then we'd get a signifigant atmospheric river to flush it all out.... but this year is different... right?

[snow_wizard]

It's just nice to have a little optimism...

 

Dutch Harbor AK has a 41 months above normal temp. Wonder when the record is gonna fall.

Wow!

 

The thing is...this stuff always evens out in the long run. Fun times coming.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow!

 

The thing is...this stuff always evens out in the long run. Fun times coming.

Or it could last another 41 months

[snow_wizard]

Or it could last another 41 months

Not with cold ENSO. People are going to really enjoy the next few years IMO.