November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

This super-moon is so super I think it's inhibiting radiational cooling. Apparently the closest approach since 1948.

Two major earthquakes in the past 24hrs. Hmmmmmm.

[Phil]

Two major earthquakes in the past 24hrs. Hmmmmmm.

You nervous?

 

Wouldn't shock me if there was a connection between tidal forcing and seismic activity. Would require resonant amplification, though.

[ShawniganLake]

You nervous?

 

Wouldn't shock me if there was a connection between tidal forcing and seismic activity. Would require resonant amplification, though.

No I am not nervous but it did seem unusual to watch the news this morning and see 2 earthquakes above 6.8 making headlines. Then the moon connection possibility just popped into my head.

 

At some point the pnw will get rocked. I live in a favourable spot though. Very rocky soils around here and my house is basically on bedrock.

 

High of 49F here today. Still a +2 but it felt more like November.

[Phil]

I thought the "swamp" was down at Phil's?

FYP

 

A swamp so swampy not even the Donald can drain it.

[snow_wizard]

No I am not nervous but it did seem unusual to watch the news this morning and see 2 earthquakes above 6.8 making headlines. Then the moon connection possibility just popped into my head.

 

At some point the pnw will get rocked. I live in a favourable spot though. Very rocky soils around here and my house is basically on bedrock.

 

High of 49F here today. Still a +2 but it felt more like November.

Being on bedrock means you will get shaken the hardest. People who live on glacial till get quite a bit of cushioning.

[ShawniganLake]

Being on bedrock means you will get shaken the hardest. People who live on glacial till get quite a bit of cushioning.

No.  I have only felt one earthquake here in Shawnigan Lake in 27 years.

 

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) has defined six different soil and rock types based on their shear-wave velocity, in order to determine amplification effects:

• Type A, hard rock (igneous rock).
• Type B, rock (volcanic rock).
• Type C, very dense soil and soft rock (sandstone).
• Type D, stiff soil (mud).
• Type E, soft soil (artificial fill).
• Type F, soils requiring site-specific evaluations.

Type A having the least amplification and Type E the most.

 

As seismic waves travel though the ground, they travel faster through hard rock than soft soil. As a result, when the waves move from hard rock to soft soil, the amplitude (largeness) of the waves needs to increase to be able to carry the same amount of energy, creating stronger shaking. This same principle accounts for the site effects of sediment thickness. The deeper the sediment above bedrock, the more soft soil there is for seismic waves to travel through, therefore creating stronger amplifications.

[snow_wizard]

The latest WRF has trended considerably colder for the middle of the week with widespread frost and highs in the 40s for many places. Really nice improvement on the low temps especially.

[snow_wizard]

No.  I have only felt one earthquake here in Shawnigan Lake in 27 years.

 

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) has defined six different soil and rock types based on their shear-wave velocity, in order to determine amplification effects:

• Type A, hard rock (igneous rock).
• Type B, rock (volcanic rock).
• Type C, very dense soil and soft rock (sandstone).
• Type D, stiff soil (mud).
• Type E, soft soil (artificial fill).
• Type F, soils requiring site-specific evaluations.

Type A having the least amplification and Type E the most.

 

As seismic waves travel though the ground, they travel faster through hard rock than soft soil. As a result, when the waves move from hard rock to soft soil, the amplitude (largeness) of the waves needs to increase to be able to carry the same amount of energy, creating stronger shaking. This same principle accounts for the site effects of sediment thickness. The deeper the sediment above bedrock, the more soft soil there is for seismic waves to travel through, therefore creating stronger amplifications.

 

Very different than what I had heard in the past. Interesting.

 

Here I have felt three quakes since the late 1980s or so.

[ShawniganLake]

The latest WRF has trended considerably colder for the middle of the week with widespread frost and highs in the 40s for many places. Really nice improvement on the low temps especially.

Not sure if we will see much prolonged clearing, but some frosty mornings would be nice. 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure if we will see much prolonged clearing, but some frosty mornings would be nice. 

 

We will see.  I was surprised how cold it showed Wednesday night being.  Already in the 30s by 10 pm in many places.

[Brennan]

http://www.historylink.org/File/3681

 

Windstorms in November, Snowstorms and epic blasts in January/February... some wonderful mental pictures formed while reading this.

[Bryant]

http://www.historylink.org/File/3681

 

Windstorms in November, Snowstorms and epic blasts in January/February... some wonderful mental pictures formed while reading this.

Thanks for the link buddy

[westcoastexpat]

Not even sure why you'd reference hour 384, ever? Showing that time frame doesn't give any credence to a reversal

 

What's the harm in showing a fantasyland run? There's not much else going on. I said that the GFS showed a reversal on one of its runs... certainly didn't say "Winter is coming...."

 

I've been criticized for being too "realistic" and now I'm being criticized for posting a long range prog from one run?   Tough crowd.

[westcoastexpat]

I know that I'm not allowed to post runs after hour 300, but here's a comparison of the end-of-range for the GFS over the last 4 runs:

 

 

If anything, we've got hope that the outright torch will end.

[Timmy]

What's the harm in showing a fantasyland run? There's not much else going on. I said that the GFS showed a reversal on one of its runs... certainly didn't say "Winter is coming...."

 

I've been criticized for being too "realistic" and now I'm being criticized for posting a long range prog from one run? Tough crowd.

It's better than posting the low res 2m temps after hr 240 like someone on Rob's fb group used to do all last winter

[TT-SEA]

Numerous periods of offshore flow showing up in the models over the next 2 weeks now.   Love it!

 

Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian also show a really nice Thanksgiving as well.   The 12Z GFS is really nice the entire holiday weekend.

[Jesse]

Numerous periods of offshore flow showing up in the models over the next 2 weeks now. Love it!

 

Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian also show a really nice Thanksgiving as well. The 12Z GFS is really nice the entire holiday weekend.

Nice just means dry to you right? Dry and chilly would be nice but dry and torchy have gotten old.

[TT-SEA]

Nice just means dry to you right? Dry and chilly would be nice but dry and torchy have gotten old.

 

 

Yes... I figure offshore flow is almost always nice from now through March.      I am happy with cold or warm offshore flow in the winter.     Snow and cold would be nice too.  

[Jesse]

[Bryant]

I know that I'm not allowed to post runs after hour 300, but here's a comparison of the end-of-range for the GFS over the last 4 runs:

 

 

If anything, we've got hope that the outright torch will end.

You would think a Met would use other resources than an hour 384 model run to show a pattern flip That time frame features patterns/changes that possibly never come to fruition, so really just makes no sense to me

[stuffradio]

Almost at 7 inches of rain on the month so far. Only need a bit more than 5 inches to reach average.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You would think a Met would use other resources than an hour 384 model run to show a pattern flip That time frame features patterns/changes that possibly never come to fruition, so really just makes no sense to me

 

Nice! Makes two of us now.

 

What station do you have?

 

Well my station is an Acurite Pro 5-in-1 so just an average station but a good place to start. I hope to upgrade to a better system in the future. 

[Brennan]

*crickets*

[Front Ranger]

Nice just means dry to you right? Dry and chilly would be nice but dry and torchy have gotten old.

 

Fairly unusual this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The progression is starting to remind me of 2000-2001.

[Bryant]

Well my station is an Acurite Pro 5-in-1 so just a average station but a good place to start. I hope to upgrade to a better system in the future.

I actually am thinking about getting that, costco has it on sale (which I'm sure you know). You'll have to let me know what you think of it!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I actually am thinking about getting that, costco has it on sale (which I'm sure you know). You'll have to let me know what you think of it!

I have actually had it awhile now but did not take the time to get it online. It seems to be a sound unit, and allows for some minor calibration. For the past 4 months of using it, I am quite happy with it. It is a good starter unit and gives me all that I need at this time. For the price it is TOTALLY worth it. I am loving the fact I can use a website to log, track and manage my data, ALONG with share it with others in my neighborhood. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

*crickets*

warmth brings the crickets out...

[Jesse]

Fairly unusual this time of year.

We've found a way the last 13 days!

 

But yeah, moving into late November it gets harder.

[Jesse]

The progression is starting to remind me of 2000-2001.

November 2000 was pretty chilly.

[Bryant]

I have actually had it awhile now but did not take the time to get it online. It seems to be a sound unit, and allows for some minor calibration. For the past 4 months of using it, I am quite happy with it. It is a good starter unit and gives me all that I need at this time. For the price it is TOTALLY worth it. I am loving the fact I can use a website to log, track and manage my data, ALONG with share it with others in my neighborhood.

Thanks for the info!

[Front Ranger]

I like the look of the Euro towards the end.

[BLI snowman]

November 2000 was pretty chilly.

I think it was the country's coldest November on record. Probably will see the opposite happen this month.

[BLI snowman]

I like the look of the Euro towards the end.

Looks pretty awful IMO.

[Front Ranger]

Looks pretty awful IMO.

I'm looking more at the evolution of the global pattern. Looks considerably more promising for cold on this side of the globe.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I have actually had it awhile now but did not take the time to get it online. It seems to be a sound unit, and allows for some minor calibration. For the past 4 months of using it, I am quite happy with it. It is a good starter unit and gives me all that I need at this time. For the price it is TOTALLY worth it. I am loving the fact I can use a website to log, track and manage my data, ALONG with share it with others in my neighborhood. 

 

 

I got one back in March, and overall it's a decent unit.  Acurite just changed their web service/interface, and that was pretty rough going... LOTS of problems.  The only problems I have had is sometimes the daily rain total will reset at a random time, and occasionally it drops offline (not due to any connection issues on my end)

 

It is supposed to have a solar powered cooling fan, though I have questioned whether or not it was working on more than one occasion (I wish they had an indicator to show if it was running).  I've got it about 3 feet above the roof of my shed, and the temp ramps up quicker than other stations near by, but they eventually more or less line up.

 

 

If you want a weather station but can't afford the $3-400+ for a Davis or equivalent station, the Acurite will definitely cure the itch, but I think to a certain extent, you get what you pay for....

 

 

 

Edit:  One other thing...I personally would recommend the dark background screen over the light background screen.  I have an incredibly difficult time reading the light background screen unless I am right next to it.  Also, there is no way to adjusts the contrast, so I have to stick something under the base to tilt the display unit forward so it is a little easier to read, but even then, its not that great.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Chewbacca Defense

[luvssnow_spokane]

I got one back in March, and overall it's a decent unit.  Acurite just changed their web service/interface, and that was pretty rough going... LOTS of problems.  The only problems I have had is sometimes the daily rain total will reset at a random time, and occasionally it drops offline (not due to any connection issues on my end)

 

It is supposed to have a solar powered cooling fan, though I have questioned whether or not it was working on more than one occasion (I wish they had an indicator to show if it was running).  I've got it about 3 feet above the roof of my shed, and the temp ramps up quicker than other stations near by, but they eventually more or less line up.

 

 

If you want a weather station but can't afford the $3-400+ for a Davis or equivalent station, the Acurite will definitely cure the itch, but I think to a certain extent, you get what you pay for....

I completely agree. I actually bypassed the Acurite web service at first because it was so buggy and painful and did it right through the wunderground.com service. I do think the web service is getting a bit better but not great. I did finally getting it working with Acurite too but much prefer the wunderground service and interface!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm looking more at the evolution of the global pattern. Looks considerably more promising for cold on this side of the globe.

DITTO! it is really the much larger scale that I have quite a bit of hope in. I think we will see more come to fruition in the models in the coming days/weeks. I will be very surprised if we do not see more promise (in the models) by end of November. I think December will be our month but Snowwiz has us pegged for Jan. We shall see but I do think we have a much greater chance this year than the last two. If I am wrong then you can beat my a**.  I am sure Jesse would love that. *hugs Jesse*

[Weather101]

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

I am looking to a Seahawks VS Patriots rematch for the big event this year... With 20 inches of snow on the ground at my house. PErrfect!