November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

[bainbridgekid]

Snow wizard is not an idiot. I don't think it's a coincidence that so many years that torched this time of year had a major pattern flip a little bit down the road.

I meant that the extremity of the torch wouldn't have any bearing.

 

It's no secret I have a lot of skepticism about long range forecasting, but I definitely was not rooting against an early November torch.

[TT-SEA]

The temperature hit and incredible 75 at the junction of I-90 and SR 18 today. Very impressive!

 

74 here.

 

75 in North Bend as well.  

[snow_wizard]

A fricken miracle beyond measure. Kinda like Trump becoming president .. oh wait!!

tis the year for miracles!

[snow_wizard]

bellingham broke their daily record by 10 degrees today. Imagine what it would take to break a record low in winter by 10*...

There are a few weak records that it wouldn't take much to break by a large margin, but some of them would take some doing. No doubt this torch we are in is epic.

[Phil]

00z ECMWF - Day 10

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110900/ecmwf_z500a_npac_11.png

Flat ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Flat ridge.

Well, somewhat, but the ridge does pop up at times, it's just that the flow is too progressive to allow for persistent blocking or sharper amplification.

[westcoastexpat]

Exactly what we want. A nice gradual decent into the temperature abyss.

I disagree. I want a quick reversal and a full out major flood of arctic air for next month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS shows 500-1000mb thickness remaining above 540 for the next 90 days.

 

Blow torch for the ages. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS shows SEA above 60 the next 3 days... if it works out then is a really impressive run. Not sure about today considering its raining.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This kind of setup (in about 8 days) could always be interesting if we had more cold air to work with. Overall, not a bad run on the 12z GFS this morning.  At least we will be talking about cooler with mountain snow coming up. 

 

 

[IbrChris]

This kind of setup (in about 8 days) could always be interesting if we had more cold air to work with. Overall, not a bad run on the 12z GFS this morning.  At least we will be talking about cooler with mountain snow coming up. 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-09 at 9.19.28 AM.jpg

Good low position for snow if the cold air were in place. Not quite ideal for PDX but decent for Seattle and very good for SW WA.

[ShawniganLake]

New Monthly high temperature records were set as far north as Prince George yesterday. 

 

Williams Lake broke their daily record by 13F.  (1976)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is absolutely epic torching.

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows the pattern more or less staying the same over the next 7-10 days.

 

We get a brief cool interlude (that is being continually pushed back) next week, but most frames on this run have warm SWrly flow over us. At hour 240 we are basically in the same position we are in right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro shows the pattern more or less staying the same over the next 7-10 days.

 

We get a brief cool interlude (that is being continually pushed back) next week, but most frames on this run have warm SWrly flow over us. At hour 240 we are basically in the same position we are in right now.

 

Starting to remind me of the constant fall torch of 2012.

[James Jones]

Starting to remind me of the constant fall torch of 2012.

Clearly a good sign. We had the coldest January in 20 years that winter!

[Deweydog]

F**k you, Black Friday!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS was "okay." The system moving in from the west-southwest would probably be a snow producer in 2-3 weeks as it would draw in colder air thanks to easterlies. Importantly the low remains south of PDX/Gorge as it traverses eastward across Oregon.

 

Ensembles 500mb anomaly shows the positive anomaly hangs around 160-170 W for a long time. Granted there was no real amplification, but it keeps cooler NW flow and colder systems for tons of mountain snow going. If the flow amplifies at all the ridge could become a solid block up through Western Alaska and then we'd start to look at the real possibility for much colder(perhaps arctic) air to infiltrate southward. 500mb pattern overall is fairly close to delivering an early Winter chill.

[TT-SEA]

62 with a dewpoint of 55 at SEA.

[Jesse]

62 with a dewpoint of 55 at SEA.

Almost humid enough to have Obama over for those sangrias!

[Gradient Keeper]

Right now we're too close to the Chupacabra and its Death Ridge, and too far away from the Siberian Polar Monkey and it's pal Old Man Winter. Just literally made that up.

[Tundra]

Winter is over everybody and you have Silver Falls Andrew to thank for that!

 

[Deweydog]

Winter is over everybody and you have Silver Falls Andrew to thank for that!

 

Thanks Trump!

 

Doesn't have the same ring as thanks Obama.

[Bryant]

Winter is over everybody and you have Silver Falls Andrew to thank for that!

 

You can only say you're joking so many times. Pretty sure you actually believe we are screwed this year

[Jesse]

This warmth is getting absurd.

[TT-SEA]

This warmth is getting absurd.

 

 

Next week will be much cooler... maybe even some mountain snow.

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls04/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls04-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-O5_sE6.png

[Deweydog]

This warmth is getting absurd.

 

Do you want a 33/21 day on January 11, 2017 or not?

 

Gotta earn it...

[Tundra]

Thanks Trump!

 

Doesn't have the same ring as thanks Obama.

You can only say you're joking so many times. Pretty sure you actually believe we are screwed this year

 

This Winter doesn't look good. If we get snow or no snow isn't the bigger issue. It's the long term issue regarding our warming climate. I voted for Clinton mostly in part that we have a better chance to address global warming and the need for an Oregon Coastal Radar. Now with Trump as President those issues along with other weather and environmental issues, will not get resolved or even get worse.

[Deweydog]

This Winter doesn't look good. If we get snow or no snow isn't the bigger issue. It's the long term issue regarding our warming climate. I voted for Clinton mostly in part that we have a better chance to address global warming and the need for an Oregon Coastal Radar. Now with Trump as President those issues along with other weather and environmental issues, will not get resolved or even get worse.

 

You think the coastal radar will curb global warming?

 

If you do, I agree.  

[Bryant]

You think the coastal radar will curb global warming?

 

If you do, I agree.  

 

I was more surprised he was old enough to vote...  

[Jesse]

65 without even really trying today.

[Kayla]

65 without even really trying today.

 

Inter-hour 66! Another day, another new record high.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feels like we have clinch a monthly record already, but a long shot. Kind of like how the networks did not call it for Trump until after midnight, but by about 7pm everyone knew. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Day 8 to 14 500mb composite analog looks decent to me. Nice positive anomaly with some amplification and cool to chilly troughing over us.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i.imgur.com/TJo1U3q.png

[Trainwreck]

Looks like they really tank in the next two weeks Rob. Let's hope it stays true.

[wx_statman]

PDX is running an average maximum of 64.1F so far this month. The average of the record highs during this stretch was 67.9F - in other words, we've been within 3.8 degrees of the record high, on average, through the first 9 days of November. Yikes. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Understanding PNA
Recently you've probably seen me post the Teleconnection Indices forecast for the PNA, EPO, AO, etc. What is the PNA and why is it important to us? The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is one of the most recognized, influential climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes beyond the tropics. It consists of anomalies in the geopotential height fields (typically at 700 or 500mb) observed over the western and eastern United States.

 

Negative -PNA
The negative phase of the PNA pattern features below average geopotential heights over the western U.S., and above average geopotential heights across the eastern U.S. This results in deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions.
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

 

http://i.imgur.com/aE9J7Xl.jpg

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/vqudezC.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]
Next up....
*00z GFS in 1 hour 7 minutes
00z CMC/GEM in 2 hours 7 minutes
00z ECMWF in 3 hours 24 minutes
Let's get some colder runs!