November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Cold front]

[snow_wizard]

Concerning snow my experience is the models are usually not even close until two days out. Even then they blow it quite often.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunday night - Monday looks borderline for Victoria, but probably snowy to start the day along the east coast of the Island. It will certainly switch to snow in the Victoria region when the outflow kicks in, and there's always the chance of a late burst of sea effect snow (along the lines of Nov 2006). The overrunning event shown on this run is impressive, we haven't seen anything like that in years; they've most often been dying fronts coming in from the N/NW. For much of SW BC/NW WA there's still a good chance we get more snow in the next week than we've had in the past 4 years.

6's have been kind to us in recent decades. 1996....2006.....2016?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - Aleutian ridge bit stronger than 00z last night. Ridge over us/offshore backing away tad faster than GFS.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120100/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Cold front]

[chopper 918]

Concerning snow my experience is the models are usually not even close until two days out. Even then they blow it quite often.

 

Or 1 day many times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey andrew I hate to keep asking for snow maps, lost all the links due to a crashed computer. Help from anyone would be appreciated esp the close up maps like this one for my area!

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/extendedgfsinit.html

[Timmy]

Wrf drops another 6-8" on my location Wednesday night

[snow_wizard]

Has the infamous control model ever proven to be more accurate than any other ensemble member or the operational?

Not sure. I always like to see when it and the operational agree though. It should be more accurate than the regular members. Sometimes they use the parallel GFS if they are working on one at the time in question.

[snow_wizard]

6's have been kind to us in recent decades. 1996....2006.....2016?

Strange now that you mention it.

 

1886-87

1896-97

1906-07

1916-17

1936-37

1946-47

1956-57

1996-97

2006-07

[HighlandExperience]

The best I can do is the link. My browser is really boggy tonight.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_wa_snow24+///3

Here is WA. As usual the worse spot for snow is Puysllup.

[BLI snowman]

6's have been kind to us in recent decades. 1996....2006.....2016?

6-7 had a nice run between 1886-87 and 1956-57. Eight straight decades with decent to great winters. Similar to the run 8-9 is on now.

[chopper 918]

Here is WA

 

I have a bad feeling many are going to be letdown after seeing that map!

[snow_wizard]

6-7 had a nice run between 1886-87 and 1956-57. Eight straight decades with decent to great winters. Similar to the run 8-9 is on now.

That's right. Even 1926-27 had something to offer.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - Block quite a bit stronger than 00z last night

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120100/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

[snow_wizard]

I have a bad feeling many are going to be letdown after seeing that map!

It does seem pretty snowy.

[BLI snowman]

That's right. Even 1926-27 had something to offer.

That was a fantastic year for the Portland region.

[stuffradio]

I just made a loooong Facebook post to my friends/family (friends I've met in real life). If this event fizzles out, you can blame me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is WA. As usual the worse spot for snow is Puysllup.

This area (the swamp) gets screwed a lot but I am just used to it now. Lived here 10 years and it is just something I expect. Good thing is there is time for things to improve.

[MossMan]

I just made a loooong Facebook post to my friends/family (friends I've met in real life). If this event fizzles out, you can blame me.

Noooooo! I have still mostly kept my mouth shut though I did tell my wife tonight.

[stuffradio]

Noooooo! I have still mostly kept my mouth shut though I did tell my wife tonight.

Better tell her now. Cat's out of the bag.

[crf450ish]

Strange now that you mention it.

 

1886-87

1896-97

1906-07

1916-17

1936-37

1946-47

1956-57

1996-97

2006-07

That is rather eery. Hopefully the timeframe of which we get slammed declines from every 10 years to once every year. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Block is MUCH stronger than previous runs. This run has a chance..... a real chance

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120100/096/500h_anom.na.png

[HighlandExperience]

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, the block looks better than GFS, and Euro has lower heights, yet GFS had Arctic air quite a bit closer at day 4. Kinda weird.

[TT-SEA]

Next week Tim will posts pics of his kids playing in snow and webcam images of Covington with bare ground and sunshine in Seattle

 

I doubt it will be sunny in Seattle.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Model comparison vs 00z last night(pretty chilly run) much better digging tonight's run

[chopper 918]

Euro looks like the 00Z run from 2 nights ago.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF says that it will be snowing out here early Sunday morning.    

 

Then some light snow across most of the lowlands by Monday morning.

[Brennan]

Wrf drops another 6-8" on my location Wednesday night

To all members stating what models show for "their" location. Please specify where your location is. Not all of us know where everyone lives! I personally think it should be required information!

[chopper 918]

Snow at the Clink Sunday night??

[Gradient Keeper]

Stronger SE ridge on this run. Day 5 comparison to 00z last night which had modified arctic air into eastern WA shows much better digging back of arctic air/trough

[chopper 918]

To all members stating what models show for "their" location. Please specify where your location is. Not all of us know where everyone lives! I personally think it should be required information!

 

Amen!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.9141527,-122.6520509,1314m/data=!3m1!1e3

[HighlandExperience]

Someone post the wxbell snow map. Just for fun!

[Timmy]

New thread

[Perturbed Member]

WRF Wed-Thursday

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120100/images_d2/msnow24.180.0000.gif

 

Gives PDX a nice east wind snowstorm after the 3-5 inches it showed for Monday. The expectations for this event are starting to get out of hand maybe. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro is radically different than GFS at day 6. Troughing much deeper in the West, and the Pacific ridging is also way different.

[Timmy]

To all members stating what models show for "their" location. Please specify where your location is. Not all of us know where everyone lives! I personally think it should be required information!

To all members stating what models show for "their" location. Please specify where your location is. Not all of us know where everyone lives! I personally think it should be required information!

It shows on the desktop version as it does everyones. But I'm about a mile se of the Portland radar (ktrx) ~1500'

[Phil]

Wavebreak cycles way too far west this run.