hlcater Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Another system winding up in TX thru the end of the run. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 On the 12z Euro.. For the entire 12z EURO run? Over a foot for most of MI Last winter's 1st snow in mby: 12.5" What are the odds I could pull that off 2 yrs in a row?? ..thems not good odds Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Prettiest day 10 euro I have seen in 5 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Prettiest day 10 euro I have seen in 5 years.ecmwf_slp_precip_conus2_41.png[/quote Massive 1056mb Arctic HP building in western Canada! #WinterIsComingThisYear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Prettiest day 10 euro I have seen in 5 years.ecmwf_slp_precip_conus2_41.png[/quote Massive 1056mb Arctic HP building in western Canada! #WinterIsComingThisYear Alaska going in the icebox this weekend, coldest spot forecasted to drop to -68. We are making progress, the cold is finally on this side of the globe. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Let's talk perception for a moment, think about how warm it's been for them these past 3 Winters and to get it down that far Sub Zero, it's going to be biting frigid even for Alaskan standards. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Let's talk perception for a moment, think about how warm it's been for them these past 3 Winters and to get it down that far Sub Zero, it's going to be biting frigid even for Alaskan standards.Yes it will. My friend who lives in Fairbanks sent me pictures of her thermometer in 2014 that was 10 degrees warmer than I was here during our cold stretch that season. It will be a bit shocking to them and it's not even midwinter yet. Of course if what I think is going to happen works out, we all could be a bit shocked here too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Let's talk perception for a moment, think about how warm it's been for them these past 3 Winters and to get it down that far Sub Zero, it's going to be biting frigid even for Alaskan standards.Yes it will. My friend who lives in Fairbanks sent me pictures of her thermometer in 2014 that was 10 degrees warmer than I was here during our cold stretch that season. It will be a bit shocking to them and it's not even midwinter yet. Of course if what I think is going to happen works out, we all could be a bit shocked here too. Don't think we even got close to zero last winter around these parts, did we? I don't know about y'all but cold + wind is the worst for me, thus remembering the PV visit in Jan '14 when the wind chill was -41º that evening is what sticks in my mind, even more than the colder (but calm) Feb 2015 dates. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Tweet Tweet or Woof Woof? (kinda surprised that the BSR guru isn't more bullish. This from another..) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Hmmm Euro vs the world Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Don't think we even got close to zero last winter around these parts, did we? I don't know about y'all but cold + wind is the worst for me, thus remembering the PV visit in Jan '14 when the wind chill was -41º that evening is what sticks in my mind, even more than the colder (but calm) Feb 2015 dates.I agree, those biting WC's are nasty. During that memorable Winter, I remember my furnace broke down and the cold winds blowing against by bedroom window made it very uncomfortable. The chill was felt in many different ways. I can feel the drafts all over my place, even where there was some insulation. At times that season, it felt like the movie "Day After Tomorrow". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z JMA still has the storm, but shunt off east quickly as a northern piece popped up on this run suppressing the storm. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112812/jma_mslpa_us_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112812/jma_mslpa_us_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z Navy has the storm late weekend but similar to the JMA... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112812/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112812/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z EPS still holding strong with a storm riding up towards the lower lakes late weekend... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm going with the world Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Amazing agreement 10 days out between the GFS/EURO...only "bump" in the road, GFS has no late weekend storm! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112812/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Amazing agreement 10 days out between the GFS/EURO...only "bump" in the road, GFS has no late weekend storm! I'm going with the world Not sure if this guy was being sarcastic or not? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 18z GFS still a no go for the weekend storm Ukie has a nice storm developing at the end of its run 999 in S. AR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 18z GFS still a no go for the weekend storm Ukie has a nice storm developing at the end of its run 999 in S. AREither this will be a complete bust or coupe by the GFS. If it doesn't have the right idea, might need to wait till the occluding low moves on out by Wednesday. Cut-off storms are a devil to handle by the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Agreed but ukie looks a ton like the euro at 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 18z GFS lost the 2nd storm also, bad run overall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 According to a poster on American the UKIE has a strong low in western MI at hr 168 similar to euro but a tad farther west Ukie/Euro vs GFS/GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What a buzz kill on the 18z GFS run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What a buzz kill on the 18z GFS run.Wouldn't worry, 06z/18z don't take in upper air data... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Gfs always pulls some weird crap within the d5-d10 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm more excited that the ukie is on board with the euro tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm more excited that the ukie is on board with the euro tbhAgree, hope the JMA comes back on tomorrow's run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Rain and snow chances already popping up in my NWS forecast next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 @ Niko - we've won the lotto if that run should verify You better believe it buddy.....I wonder if the "B" word will be mentioned. Ouch, I am starting to get the chills already!!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 My forecast is calling for chance for snow already for the upcoming weekend. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 R/S in the point and click here. I think mentioning pure SN is a bit ballsy for any WFO at this point unless you are far north. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 NAM at HR 84 doesn't look that good... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016112900/084/500hv.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016112900/084/850hv.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 GFS/GGEM still a no-go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 GFS not budging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 GFS is awful with the 2nd system also. Keeps it northern stream dominant and it's bunch of 35-40 degrees with rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Total snowfall through HR 186: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112900/186/snku_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Onto the Ukie/Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 UKIE has lost the storm 96: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 U.K. Shows nada as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 GEM with a nice storm around the 8th/9th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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