gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020706/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 How quickly things are changing.  If the GEFS are right, Winter is coming back with a vengeance as the hemispheric pattern gets blocked.  CPC likely will bust bad from being "trigger" happy to issue a nation wide torch for February.  I like where this pattern is heading as it can certainly spin up some big storms. Anyone still doubting the high latitude blocking to lock this month???  IMO, I think the AO is cycling in a different manner and is likely heading towards the deep -AO state it did back in October. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif   Feb 20th-26th EURO Weeklies forecast indicating a very wet pattern as the PAC jet dives south into CA..    GEFS with more widespread cold Week 2 from the Rockies into the East....with the storm coming out of the Gulf around Valentines Day, current guidance is suggest it to track  up the Apps/EC. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020706/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 I have snow in my forecast for Friday. It looks interesting. Anyone aware of this system. I have no clue where it is coming from? Â From the "Grinch with an inch" Â SWMI screw-job. Hope you coat your grass buddy Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas??I doubt its right in the Dakotas, but in the SW its spot on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 No NAO help usually means no interest from me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 From the "Grinch with an inch"  SWMI screw-job. Hope you coat your grass buddyI'll accept an inch. Need to add more snowcover on my grass. Todays rain will wash away nearly everything, except for any big snowpacks that are still around. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.pngInteresting!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 No NAO help usually means no interest from me.If the AO tanks as much as the GEFS are suggesting, you may still be in the game. Â A slightly -NAO still can alter the storm track deep into the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas?? Or the EC no doubt Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Or the EC no doubtI can promise you this, if the amount blocking that is now almost certain to develop, suppression will take over for the Dakotas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 I can promise you this, if the amount blocking that is now almost certain to develop, suppression will take over for the Dakotas.So the GEFS has the most blocking setting up right??? Isnt it also the model that is now the driest during that time period?? Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z GEFS not backing down in the medium/long range.  In fact, Siberian HP to take over the pole starting around the 18th and will have eyes for N.A. to finish off Feb and open March. So the GEFS has the most blocking setting up right??? Isnt it also the model that is now the driest during that time period??  Blend the CFSv2/Weeklies/Euro Weeklies and you can get a better idea.  Drier the farther north you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z GEFS not backing down in the medium/long range.  In fact, Siberian HP to take over the pole starting around the 18th and will have eyes for N.A. to finish off Feb and open March. Blend the CFSv2/Weeklies/Euro Weeklies and you can get a better idea.  Drier the farther north you go.Its hard to blend them when they are all showing completely different patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hard to say these are dry???  I'm sure you can find the doughnut holes....some rainers mixed in earlier on before the cold pool locks in.  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 CFSv2= BlowtorchGEPS= BlowtorchGEFS= COld and dry.... zzzzzzzzWeeklies= From what I have seen wet and mild Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Its hard to blend them when they are all showing completely different patterns.I guess its up to you to try and figure it out if your a forecaster. Â #Winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hard to say these are dry???  I'm sure you can find the doughnut holes....some rainers mixed in earlier on before the cold pool locks in.  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.pngWhat i am saying is during the period in which blocking sets up it is dry...... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 I guess its up to you to try and figure it out if your a forecaster.  #WinningWe had the same battle the end of last winter..... #WON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 We had the same battle the end of last winter..... #WON #El Nino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 #El NinoNo doubt was an easy win.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 How quickly things are changing.  If the GEFS are right, Winter is coming back with a vengeance as the hemispheric pattern gets blocked.  CPC likely will bust bad from being "trigger" happy to issue a nation wide torch for February.  I like where this pattern is heading as it can certainly spin up some big storms. Anyone still doubting the high latitude blocking to lock this month???  IMO, I think the AO is cycling in a different manner and is likely heading towards the deep -AO state it did back in October.   I am. But then again, I have turned biased as I no longer have any desire for winter weather (around these parts). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 No doubt was an easy win....For March...the whole winter overall everyone agreed was predicted above normal. Â Were there some cold spells??? Â Yes, but didn't hold and I don't think many expected it to during a Super Nino. Â I did think Spring would trend colder as it did at times but not like a usual NINO pattern where early and late cold sticks around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 I am. But then again, I have turned biased as I no longer have any desire for winter weather (around these parts).Same here, but would you rather have cold/wet or cold/snow???  Pattern doesn't look favorable in my eyes for a blow torch in Feb around here.  I'd rather have a blow torch show up end of March when normal high temps are much higher than they are in Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 For March...the whole winter overall everyone agreed was predicted above normal.  Were there some cold spells???  Yes, but didn't hold and I don't think many expected it to during a Super Nino.  I did think Spring would trend colder as it did at times but not like a usual NINO pattern where early and late cold sticks around.I think it is probably understood by all the in terms of weather bias yours would be towards cold/long range blocks coming thru whereas mine is the opposite.  Nothing wrong with that. Plus there is plenty of guidance that is against the GFS/GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 with all the rain I think I'm gonna get a head start and fetilize my lawn...this is crazy!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nothing on the table for the next 15 days which will lead us towards the end of the month. Any blocking and cold will just come too late(if it does transpire) so I hope it does not happen.Don't want to end up getting a cold and wet Spring. Time to move on from this crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2017 Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 The EPS and the GEFS are on completely different pages by day 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 East coast gonna have a good run... 3 systems for them on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like the GEFS is back in line with the rest of the models in the extended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like the GEFS is back in line with the rest of the models in the extended.Warm n dry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Warm n dry?Not a torch in the long range but above average throughout. .5 qpf for you thru 384 hours. East coast raked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is it normal to have EC storm track with the midwest above normal?Ridging in the central and trough out east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is it normal to have EC storm track with the midwest above normal?Ridging in the central and trough out east?Ragin PNA is the culprit for that. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Blocking will hold, I'm expecting more volatility in the models as we are still in the midst of a SSW event which will wane by Friday. EPO is also trending negative between the 18th-20th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Some sort of blocking is obviously inevitable but it locking in is not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Blocking will hold, I'm expecting more volatility in the models as we are still in the midst of a SSW event which will wane by Friday. EPO is also trending negative between the 18th-20th... Do you think we go below normal for any extended period of time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Friday thru next week im 10-20 above avg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_62A8xKQAm0U/SnKNHjwk6NI/AAAAAAAAAaA/VpaFlv3CZCM/s320/homer_boring.gif I see lots of cloudy 30ish degree days in my future. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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