December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Big increase in snow totals on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

Third run in a row. Wow

[Phil]

Yeah...just not enough cold air with this. Still a chance the Seattle area could see a little bit if convergence keeps precip going long enough.

 

Looks like we may have to wait until around New Years when the more serious cold pattern sets up.

As I've been saying, it's just tough to overcome a +EPO/+AO and strong PV aloft. Need to thread the needle and get lucky.

 

This pattern will change in early/mid January, and when it does so, things will improve.

[Bryant]

The CFS does have some use if a high percentage of runs show the same thing in a given time frame. I have seen it outdo the GFS in the 10 to 15 day range before.

 

D**n nice 500mb composite BTW!

It just flops way too often, but I guess any model can/will flop in that timeframe. That was pulled from the 00z run tonight if you didn't check out the date

[crf450ish]

Big increase in snow totals on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

Very cool but heres the deal.....you said it better than anyone..." I don't know what to make of the EURO snowfall maps anymore. It showed 2-4" for my location and I ended up getting more like 16". And I agree with you. Just a couple days ago this EURO showed a trace for my area and I got 7" over night. So.....yeah. Complex pattern. 

[Phil]

Not sure why people where expecting much to begin with

Flatiron.

[HighlandExperience]

Wasn't the EURO showing 1-3 inches this past Sunday when we got cold rain? I'm suspicious although it's nice to see three runs in a row improving each time.

[TT-SEA]

Wasn't the EURO showing 1-3 inches this past Sunday when we got cold rain? I'm suspicious although it's nice to see three runs in a row improving each time.

 

 

The ECMWF seems to be way too generous with snow with the type of system that we had on Sunday night (next Monday evening is going to be the same).   I think it will do better with the set-up on Friday into Saturday but I am not entirely sure.

[liquidsnow]

The Euro is bullshit in clown range.

 

I am moving to Oslo if that bullshit verifies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO is UGLY

[MossMan]

EURO is UGLY

Like Matt said...let's have the uglies happen so we can get that out of the way quickly!! Freezer by the second week of January!

[MossMan]

Looks like Seattle's AFD tonight is a copy/paste from the afternoons...they are not wanting to touch the weekend stuff yet.

[Phil]

EURO is UGLY

That ridge is about to retrograde in the clown range, FWIW.

[Bryant]

That ridge is about to retrograde in the clown range, FWIW.

This. People only care about what the models visually show, not what an extrapolation would look like though lol

[Jesse]

I want my goodies and I want them now!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I want my goodies and I want them now!!

Only 10 more days.

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF seems to be way too generous with snow with the type of system that we had on Sunday night (next Monday evening is going to be the same). I think it will do better with the set-up on Friday into Saturday but I am not entirely sure.

I trust the EURO more than the WRF, so I am happy seeing the models opposite of one another.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a devastating night

[HighlandExperience]

Only 10 more days.

We could be less than 48 hours away from a good snowfall in Puget Sound area. No need to worry about stuff in clown range.

[Bryant]

What a devastating night

Lol, there's always another CFS run 6 hours away to cheer you up!

[Jesse]

Only 10 more days.

Y'all are being weenies and Andrew is stoking the flames. A general dynamic that has made this place pretty unreadable the past couple days.

[Bryant]

Y'all are being weenies and Andrew is stoking the flames. A general dynamic that has made this place pretty unreadable the past couple days.

It's disgusting. Mood will cheer up in January. Might be a good time for us all to take a break

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ECMWF seems to be way too generous with snow with the type of system that we had on Sunday night (next Monday evening is going to be the same).   I think it will do better with the set-up on Friday into Saturday but I am not entirely sure.

 

This looks super marginal to me, the cold air will be chasing the moisture. You may be setting up unrealistic expectations, because better situations than this have produced far worse in the lowlands.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This looks super marginal to me, the cold air will be chasing the moisture. You may be setting up unrealistic expectations, because better situations than this have produced far worse in the lowlands.

Agreed... very unlikely scenario for accumulating snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[HighlandExperience]

This looks super marginal to me, the cold air will be chasing the moisture. You may be setting up unrealistic expectations, because better situations than this have produced far worse in the lowlands.

 

Possibly, but something could come out of it. Better than expected considering we were just cold for two weeks. #hope!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Y'all are being weenies and Andrew is stoking the flames. A general dynamic that has made this place pretty unreadable the past couple days.

Gasoline meet spark!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[liquidsnow]

Remember the feeling of dry grass?

 

I remember.

[van city]

What a devastating night

Do you need a napkin?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you need a napkin?

Just feel bad for a lot of people on here. Tough times.

[chopper 918]

Just feel bad for a lot of people on here. Tough times.

Ha! For snow or lack there of??? Truly a devastating situation...come on man!!!

[Bryant]

Just feel bad for my location. Tough times.

 

Fixed your post

[liquidsnow]

06z NAM looks plentiful with the moisture up and down the I5 corridor...

 

We just need the cold.

[Heavy Snow]

Yeah...just not enough cold air with this. Still a chance the Seattle area could see a little bit if convergence keeps precip going long enough.

 

Looks like we may have to wait until around New Years when the more serious cold pattern sets up.

Yeah you guys up there will have a better chance to see some wet snow. Tonight's updated run of the 00z EURO was not good, though it looks like it might possibly retrograde after day 10. I was thinking a possible Arctic Blast the first week of January but I might have to postpone that until the 2nd week, similar to what Brett Anderson is thinking.

[Phil]

Fixed your post

Lmao.

[Tyler Mode]

10th day in a row of sub freezing lows.  14th for the month.

 

Not bad considering the rest of the year has only seen 17 total. 

 

The ten day streak looks to come to an end after this morning though.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS making me think the snow event shown on the ECMWF is not real.   Way too warm.

[Heavy Snow]

I just looked at last night's updated run of the 00z GFS-Parallel(updated version currently in beta) and it looks very good in the long range. You can see the Block starts to take shape in the sweet spot at day 14 and progress nicely to day 16. The result is a true Arctic Blast headed towards the PNW starting the second week of January, similar to what Brett Anderson has been hinting all along.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122200/gfsp_z500a_nhem_49.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122200/gfsp_z500a_nhem_51.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122200/gfsp_z500a_nhem_53.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122200/gfsp_T2ma_nhem_53.png

[Phil]

^Now that's more like it. Much better looking.

 

Need that block amplified into AK, none of this flat Aleutian ridge crap.

[crf450ish]

So glad I don't live in a maritime climate anymore. I'd probably be attending weekly AA meetings and in and out of rehab...