December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looks like someone had an even better idea a few seconds later!

 

Great model runs make quick, coherent thought VERY difficult.

Too slow, Joe.

[Prairiedog]

Oh nice. I have heard it is a nice school. 

It was great for me.  Didn't want to go to a major college although had scholarship offers to many.  Wanted a small college feel and close to home.  Still got to play against many major colleges and we held our own.  Wished I had paid more attention to the Forest Grove weather patterns those 4 years.  Vernonia was close by and they usually scored pretty good for snow. 

[Deweydog]

Too slow, Joe.

You should have started a countdown clock.

[snow_wizard]

Looks to me like the reload a bit further out has insane snow potential. This is one of those situations (if it verifies) where everybody would get good snowfall.

[Jesse]

You should have started a countdown clock.

Considering we won't see any arctic air for at least another month I have plenty of time!!

[Phil]

Have to bring up the -ENSO/+QBO aggregate again, for January. Could be a fantastic match.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/274C07F1-8AB3-44A1-88AE-6F2298F00212_zpshuehezpb.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Models actually coming into some agreement with the first push of arctic air. Also seem to agree on a secondary lobe a few days later.

[Deweydog]

Considering we won't see any arctic air for at least another month I have plenty of time!!

Too fast, Joe.

[Phil]

Models actually coming into some agreement with the first push of arctic air. Also seem to agree on a secondary lobe a few days later.

This looks like a 2-3 week wavebreak cycle..not going to be a quick hitter. Could even last longer with ideal timing.

[snow_wizard]

Models actually coming into some agreement with the first push of arctic air. Also seem to agree on a secondary lobe a few days later.

This looks rock solid. I'm almost expecting to wake up and find out it's all a dream.

[Deweydog]

This looks like a 2-3 week wavebreak cycle..not going to be a quick hitter.

But January is 31 days long!? Go back and make it longer.

[snow_wizard]

This looks like a 2-3 week wavebreak cycle..not going to be a quick hitter. Could even last longer if we time a few things just right.

This is why I have so sorely missed January cold waves. They are normally longer and much snowier than December ones for this area.

[Deweydog]

This looks rock solid. I'm almost expecting to wake up and find out it's all a dream.

Have you seen Inception???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I want to frame this

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122612/gfs_z500a_namer_46.png

[snow_wizard]

Have to bring up the -ENSO/+QBO aggregate again, for January. Could be a fantastic match.

 

Maybe by some miracle we can keep the +QBO going for next winter also. It has already defied the odds this time. I wonder if the weird QBO cycle burp has something to do with how nicely this is unfolding.

[Heavy Snow]

Highs in the mid 20s wow and lows in the teens

Yeah, January is going to come in cold right off the bat.

[Jesse]

I want to frame this

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122612/gfs_z500a_namer_46.png

That's a pretty hefty block.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was great for me.  Didn't want to go to a major college although had scholarship offers to many.  Wanted a small college feel and close to home.  Still got to play against many major colleges and we held our own.  Wished I had paid more attention to the Forest Grove weather patterns those 4 years.  Vernonia was close by and they usually scored pretty good for snow. 

 

I have noticed a higher percentage of people with an unusually high interest in weather are also baseball fans. I think because statistics are such a big part of both, at least that is what has driven the interest for me since I was six years old. 

[Phil]

Insane run. Probably approaching all time great status.

You guys were bound to score something this winter, and you're nowhere close to being done IMO.

 

By far, -ENSO/+QBO winters deliver your highest return rate..it's not even close when you look at the numbers. The last three -ENSO winters featuring +QBO were 2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14. I can only find three "duds" of this nature since the 1950s (out of 15+ years).

[snow_wizard]

I want to frame this

 

That's a winner for everyone. Simply no way to miss snow with that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The swamp is depicted nicely. Also "dome" areas of the SE Portland metro show up well...Lending credence to this maps validity. 

 

[Deweydog]

The swamp is depicted nicely. Also "dome" areas of the SE Portland metro show up well...Lending credence to this maps validity.

 

COULD see a last minute bump in those numbers over the next 50-60 runs.

[Heavy Snow]

I was a freshman in college getting myself ready for the baseball season. I loved weather and esp cold and snow but at that time in my life, it wasn't a force like it is now or over the last maybe 30 years. No internet back then, no cable tv so my connection to information ws a mere fraction what it is today. What I remember about Dec. '68 and Jan. '69 was there was a brief cold snap a week before Chrismas and if I remember right, a little snow but it warmed up for Christmas. Still home for break it got cold late in the month and there was some good snow. It was pretty nice but don't remember depth, could have been 4-6" and temps in the high 20's for a few days. I remember playing football out in the field with some of my buddies. Every finger and toe was numb! I remember heading back for college and somewhere early in Jan. it got cold again for a week with good arctic air and more snow. We were in the field house training and I remember walking in another good dump of snow. Other than that I don't remember much about that winter. I remember '72 more as it was cold! I played some pro ball in the minors then went to Eastern Ore college in La Grande to get my teaching certificate and I coached the JV team at the college. Got my first taste of below zero temps there at -12f. Student taught in Elgin where it was -18f and that was amazing! My excitement for weather just took off after that year in La Grande. Now I live vicariously through my video feeds of Winthrop Wa where we visit as often as we can.

That's very cool stuff Prairiedog! I've never been to Eastern Oregon in the Winter so I also want to experience their winters sometime in the future. We're due for a big January it seems. Mother Nature always seems to balance itself out in the long run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS just decided to include me in tonights WWA...Not really buying it...

 

RPM and WRF are show a brief 1-2" this evening...

[Jesse]

NWS just decided to include me in tonights WWA...Not really buying it...

Looking get a pretty big dump of snow above 2,000 tonight into tomorrow. This would be big news in lesser winters.

[Phil]

Maybe by some miracle we can keep the +QBO going for next winter also. It has already defied the odds this time. I wonder if the weird QBO cycle burp has something to do with how nicely this is unfolding.

So far, this QBO wave has been a very slow propagator, so you might be in luck if next winter remains -ENSO. If next winter goes +ENSO, however, then you guys would want a -QBO. The +ENSO/+QBO is your worst background state.

 

If next winter remains -ENSO but flips -QBO, than your chances at a 2005/06 or 2007/08 type winter increase, since NPAC blocking is reduced in -ENSO/-QBO, especially outside solar/geomagnetic minimum.

[snow_wizard]

The swamp is depicted nicely. Also "dome" areas of the SE Portland metro show up well...Lending credence to this maps validity. 

 

Pretty much impossible that will verify. The "coarser" operational run shows plenty of snow for everyone.

[Phil]

That's a pretty hefty block.

I'm sure that -AO is completely irrelevant, though..

[Heavy Snow]

Happy St. Stephen's Day/2nd day of Christmastide/Christmas to the people of Canada, UK, Australia and the other countries around the World that celebrate it!

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NSuoA75JHW0/Vm0P-hZaijI/AAAAAAABIPs/18WuKJvcKtA/s1600/12%2Bdays%2Bof%2Bchristmas%2B2nd%2Bday%2Bbanner.png

[Phil]

Happy Boxing Day to the people of Canada, UK, Australia and the other countries that celebrate it!

Ugh, please don't say those words. Brings back the 2010 nightmares.

[Heavy Snow]

As all you fine gentlemen/gentlewomen has already pointed out the 12z GFS and GEM look good, so I wont talk about it. Instead here is the updated run of the 12z UKMET for New Years Day. The Arctic Front looks ready to blast through the PNW.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Bryant]

Lightly snowing currently before the inevitable warm up

[MossMan]

Just looked at how much snow is expected in the mountains the next couple of days...guess I wont be travelling east for work tomorrow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just coming back on after a 4 day break and the models have shown some amazing potential... NICE! Looks like the euro is a bit off which I am questioning but overall it looks great!...  Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas!

[Heavy Snow]

Ugh, please don't say those words. Brings back the 2010 nightmares.

I apologize. I fixed it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The swamp is depicted nicely. Also "dome" areas of the SE Portland metro show up well...Lending credence to this maps validity. 

 

Curious why you are showing snow maps at 384 hours? Just for entertainment?

[Phil]

[Bryant]

Just looked at how much snow is expected in the mountains the next couple of days...guess I wont be travelling east for work tomorrow.

I'm going snowboarding at baker tomorrow for the first time in 8 years.... wish me luck

[snow_wizard]

Lightly snowing currently before the inevitable warm up

Yeah....the dreaded SE wind on the way up there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say slight ensemble improvement.