December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I'm going snowboarding at baker tomorrow for the first time in 8 years.... wish me luck

Boo. Skiing > boarding.

[snow_wizard]

Just coming back on after a 4 day break and the models have shown some amazing potential... NICE! Looks like the euro is a bit off which I am questioning but overall it looks great!...  Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas!

The Euro keeps getting hung up on that cut off low.

[Bryant]

Curious why you are showing snow maps at 384 hours? Just for entertainment?

Because it's pointless, and that's the kind of person he is

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Have you seen Inception???

Have you seen fantasy island?

[snow_wizard]

As all you fine gentlemen/gentlewomen has already pointed out the 12z GFS and GEM look good, so I wont talk about it. Instead here is the updated run of the 12z UKMET for New Years Day. The Arctic Front looks ready to blast through the PNW.

 

Nice scenario for snow. Nice to see most models showing a pretty strong surface low getting into the picture.

[Prairiedog]

I have noticed a higher percentage of people with an unusually high interest in weather are also baseball fans. I think because statistics are such a big part of both, at least that is what has driven the interest for me since I was six years old. 

Interesting.  I am also a biologist, retired teacher.  Between that and baseball and of course weather there is a pattern there.  Hadn't thought of it that way but yea I suppose so. 

[snow_wizard]

This is where analogs are really nice. You can look at the analogs to the pattern that is progged to get an idea of how good they collectively were for snowfall. From what I'm seeing Seattle will be fine.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to note we have a really good shot at a top 10 coldest Dec / Jan this winter assuming the models verify. The solidly cold December we have had sets us up nicely for that. I still can't believe we are probably going to have a major January cold wave!

[Prairiedog]

That's very cool stuff Prairiedog! I've never been to Eastern Oregon in the Winter so I also want to experience their winters sometime in the future. We're due for a big January it seems. Mother Nature always seems to balance itself out in the long run.

No guarantees when and if balance will come, at least to our favor.  Temps keep creeping up, snowfall keeps creeping down.  I don't like that trend.  But that doesn't mean we can't score.  Just not our climatic DNA here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would love to see the whole west side shut down due to heavy snow and cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Because it's pointless, and that's the kind of person he is

 

Because it was humorous. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty interesting to note we have a really good shot at a top 10 coldest Dec / Jan this winter assuming the models verify. The solidly cold December we have had sets us up nicely for that. I still can't believe we are probably going to have a major January cold wave!

 

I still wouldn't say it is probably. At this point I think the most likely scenario is something along the lines of January 93' or January 2007 type cold. 

[Heavy Snow]

This looks like a 2-3 week wavebreak cycle..not going to be a quick hitter. Could even last longer with ideal timing.

I like the sound of that.

[Heavy Snow]

No guarantees when and if balance will come, at least to our favor. Temps keep creeping up, snowfall keeps creeping down. I don't like that trend. But that doesn't mean we can't score. Just not our climatic DNA here.

Yeah there are definitely not going to be any guarantees. The best thing we can do is put ourselves in the best situation possible to overcome all the obstacles. I'm cautiously optimistic knowing that we are in the lead right now but we need to maintain it all the way to the end. I'm not going to start celebrating if I can help myself until 2-3 days out.

[Goducks09]

Honestly, I'm just excited that we might actually have a significant event INSIDE the dead of the actual winter season rather than the fringes of it (i.e. November or late February/March).

[Heavy Snow]

Nice scenario for snow. Nice to see most models showing a pretty strong surface low getting into the picture.

Yeah, definitely a good change of pace from Arctic Fronts of the recent memory.

[Bryant]

This is where analogs are really nice. You can look at the analogs to the pattern that is progged to get an idea of how good they collectively were for snowfall. From what I'm seeing Seattle will be fine.

Bellingham area?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be really interested to see where this December ends up ranked regionally... 

[Bryant]

Because it was humorous.

You seem to enjoy watching others get screwed in the snow department

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You seem to enjoy watching others get screwed in the snow department

 

I have probably been screwed as much or more than anyone this season in the snow department. 

[snow_wizard]

I still wouldn't say it is probably. At this point I think the most likely scenario is something along the lines of January 93' or January 2007 type cold.

I don't know about that. This setup just seems a bit more anomalous.

[Prairiedog]

Yeah there are definitely not going to be any guarantees. The best thing we can do is put ourselves in the best situation possible to overcome all the obstacles. I'm cautiously optimistic knowing that we are in the lead right now but we need to maintain it all the way to the end. I'm not going to start celebrating if I can help myself until 2-3 days out.

At least there is a lot of cold air north and northeast of the boarder.  That is the best we can hope for to give us a chance.  Its been in a position for a while now that we haven't had for a while so I will take my chances on that.  There has been persistent blocking too which we haven't had.  So the pieces are there, or at least most of the pieces.  Odds are better than many winters.  All I can ask for.

[Phil]

D10-15 GEFS is an absolute icebox. Incredible departures for a multiday ensemble mean at that range.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7DBFFB3C-E063-4C68-B7D4-08765A6C730C_zpsxfxz3qva.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2C66F827-0748-44F7-A218-8558F5B305D3_zpshia0zjf0.png

[Jesse]

PDX got down to 27!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX got down to 27!

 

It may be a small thing, but for cold lovers it is nice to see the valley really maximize the cooling potential of this airmass last night. 24 at SLE and 23 at EUG. Would have been notable cold the previous two winters. 

[Timmy]

The 12z euro already looking better than the 00z.

[BLI snowman]

PDX got down to 27!

 

They'll be lucky to get above that next month!

[Bryant]

I have probably been screwed as much or more than anyone this season in the snow department.

Thanks for confirming

[snow_wizard]

Seattle finally scores on the WRF!

[IbrChris]

I still wouldn't say it is probably. At this point I think the most likely scenario is something along the lines of January 93' or January 2007 type cold. 

Jan 2004 is a possibility as well

[seattleweatherguy]

Seattle finally scores on the WRF!

Wow but I dont

[snow_wizard]

PDX got down to 27!

It only dropped to 30 here, but I've had an impressive 14 max temps below 40 this month so far, and 18 lows of freezing or below. All with legit cold air masses and most with cloud cover. Just so different than anything we have seen recently. The interesting thing is all of this has come about with only 1 fair shot of Arctic air and two rounds of seepage. I like how this lead up period has gotten drawn out like this. Usually means the big one will be big and long lasting.

[Farmboy]

Yeah there are definitely not going to be any guarantees. The best thing we can do is put ourselves in the best situation possible to overcome all the obstacles. I'm cautiously optimistic knowing that we are in the lead right now but we need to maintain it all the way to the end. I'm not going to start celebrating if I can help myself until 2-3 days out.

And how does one go about accomplishing this?  Give me a step-by-step, then we can apply your method to every time arctic goodies show up in the models.

[Bryant]

Wow but I dont

But you're seattleweatherguy! What does your app say?

[snow_wizard]

Jan 2004 is a possibility as well

2004 was reasonably impressive from a cold max temp standpoint, but the low temps were lame here due to cloud cover and persistent east wind. This area does way better when the cold comes from the north. The monthly average on that one isn't even worth mentioning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF shows t-2" snow accumulations in the Willamette Valley from Wilsonville- south early Friday morning, about 2" or so down around Eugene. 

[Deweydog]

Euro looks nice.

[seattleweatherguy]

But you're seattleweatherguy! What does your app say?

Nothing notable

[BLI snowman]

Euro finally waking up.

[snow_wizard]

And how does one go about accomplishing this?  Give me a step-by-step, then we can apply your method to every time arctic goodies show up in the models.

It involves some serious contortion exercises, deep meditation, prayer, and secret hand gestures.