December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

18z run definitely not one to write home about.

[snow_wizard]

Looks to be much warmer overall compared to previous runs... Moderating big time! -- out to Jan 3rd

Don't worry about it. Cold is a given now.

[Bryant]

Looks to be much warmer overall compared to previous runs... Moderating big time! -- out to Jan 3rd

 

 

Looks good!

[Heavy Snow]

Looks to be much warmer overall compared to previous runs... Moderating big time! -- out to Jan 3rd

 

(images listed newest to oldest)

 

 

gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

gfs_T850_nwus_31.png

gfs_T850_nwus_32.png

 

It's fine, it's going to reload big league.

[snow_wizard]

Still an epic block and very cold.  Snow will work itself out.  We will have A 1000MB low to play with when the Arctic front moves through.

[snow_wizard]

It's fine, it's going to reload big league.

 

But WE MUST panic.

[Heavy Snow]

But WE MUST panic.

 

I'm praying that everybody can get some good solid snowcover with the Arctic Front. I think moisture chances will be plentiful once the Arctic air is in place but you never know.

[IbrChris]

Looks to be much warmer overall compared to previous runs... Moderating big time! -- out to Jan 3rd

 

(images listed newest to oldest)

 

 

gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

gfs_T850_nwus_31.png

gfs_T850_nwus_32.png

Still colder than the ensemble mean on the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good looking run to me.  Tons of chances for snow in there and lots of cold.  This is going to be a ride I have a feeling.

[Heavy Snow]

Pretty good looking run to me.  Tons of chances for snow in there and lots of cold.  This is going to be a ride I have a feeling.

 

Yup great run, it looks more and more likely that the Block in the NE Pacific aint going anywhere anytime soon.

[snow_wizard]

I actually can't remember the last time the WRF showed snow for this area going into a blast.  It's ridiculous how blind it is to the convergence that normally happens with these things.  The worst one was Nov 2010 when it literally showed nothing 12 hours before we got 6 inches.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dumping snow here and 33

[snow_wizard]

Dumping snow here and 33

 

Lucky.  Pretty much everywhere else is too warm.

[Jesse]

Lucky. Pretty much everywhere else is too warm.

Seems like the lower Fraser Valley has done well today too.

[Heavy Snow]

New 7 Day from KPTV. #prayforsnow

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lucky.  Pretty much everywhere else is too warm.

look at the kiro radar. Cool to see the blue and pink areas expand.

[Jbolin]

Lucky.  Pretty much everywhere else is too warm.

Cold air damming is a ***** huh?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It cooled down to 36 in port orchard really fast with precip. Alot of areas could switch over for a bit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pink and blue is creeping up on maple valley.

[TT-SEA]

I have been saying this January would be good since last spring. All the analogs I looked at for summer also featured a cold January to follow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Crazy how accurate the interactive radar is.

[snow_wizard]

Seems like the lower Fraser Valley has done well today too.

 

For a while at least.  Bellingham has warmed up as usual with SE winds.

[snow_wizard]

look at the kiro radar. Cool to see the blue and pink areas expand.

 

I looked at your area on Topozone and I can see the crazy array of factors that make it very difficult for your small area to scour out.  It would take the perfect pressure gradient angle to force a south wind in there.

[luvssnow_spokane]

But WE MUST panic.

Who is panicking ??  

[MikeBC]

Looks like my place will end up with 4" of new snow today. I think the snowfall is all done up here for tonight.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't worry about it. Cold is a given now.

I am far from worried... looks good... No doubt

[Gradient Keeper]

18z 500mb pattern is exceptional, and no idea why it's not as cold as 12z looks the same to me. Extended cold perhaps 2 weeks or so. Pattern sets up now in 72 hours. Once the block is setup over the GOA/AK, and the initial lead shortwave moves down the BC Coast it is pretty much a foregone conclusion of what is going to transpire downstream over us in 2-3 days. EPS is amazingly good. Onto 00z!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just had a wind gust here of 40mph... Was not expecting that 

[MossMan]

Cruising around the cams it appears only the Sumas area still has snow falling (and sticking) for the northern zones.

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/009vc09816.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some more slight ensemble improvement, fewer extreme cold members though. A major blast is highly unlikely. A January 2007 type event is probably our reasonable best case scenario right now. 

[Heavy Snow]

New AFD from NWS Portland regarding the Arctic Front.

 

"The next system Saturday night and Sunday may begin to usher in some changes. Although models don`t agree on the details, they show a similar pattern with low pressure moving south along the North American west coast, into Oregon during the day Sunday. At this point, it looks like snow levels would remain above about 1,000 ft during the wettest portion of the system. However, 850 mb temperatures are looking potentially downright frigid just beyond the end of the current 7-day forecast as models bring Arctic high pressure east of the Cascades, spilling its cold air into the local area. If the cold air arrives before showers completely dissipate behind Sunday`s system, could see some wintry precip near the valley floor, but it`s far too early to have any confidence in that happening. The other concern will be on the back end of the cold air sometime next week whenever the next precipitation arrives."

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDPQR&wfo=PQR

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I looked at your area on Topozone and I can see the crazy array of factors that make it very difficult for your small area to scour out.  It would take the perfect pressure gradient angle to force a south wind in there.

I am right near mission lake. I just went for a drive and the area of snow is expanding pretty fast. One thing i have learned out here is with these over running events is if it starts to snow good it hase never once turned to rain before the front passage. Even with aome south winds. Gold and green mountain to my north east play a huge factor as it creates some micro upslope areas. I have tried for years to buy land up there but most of it is state land. Be nice to live at 1800 ft 20 minutes from work.

[Heavy Snow]

18z 500mb pattern is exceptional, and no idea why it's not as cold as 12z looks the same to me. Extended cold perhaps 2 weeks or so. Pattern sets up now in 72 hours. Once the block is setup over the GOA/AK, and the initial lead shortwave moves down the BC Coast it is pretty much a foregone conclusion of what is going to transpire downstream over us in 2-3 days. EPS is amazingly good. Onto 00z!

 

Yeah the minor details will sort themselves out as we get closer to the main event. The bigger picture with the block and trough look good. Onto the 00z models!

[Jesse]

Some more slight ensemble improvement, fewer extreme cold members though. A major blast is highly unlikely. A January 2007 type event is probably our reasonable best case scenario right now.

You may be right. Part of me almost feels like the longer we avoid a truly major blast the longer we will stay in this same general pattern.

 

There are definitely a handful of ensembles that are colder than the 18z though....

[MossMan]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
310 PM PST Mon Dec 26 2016

.LONG TERM...As the aforementioned upper level low moves eastward
and fizzles out...moisture looks to remain in place over W WA
Thursday evening before slowly tapering off overnight. A
secondary...stronger upper level low is expected to dive down into
CA...leaving conditions here generally dry for Friday and into early
Saturday afternoon. That being said...as this system does dive
south...W WA will likely see cooler temperatures in its wake and a
follow-up system looks to bring some moisture into the area. This
could result in the potential for either mixed precip or snow in the
lowlands late Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Sure...it is a bit
out there temporally but given model agreement...which to be frank
is rather shocking to see given prior model squabbles...there may be
some minor variations but hard to discount at this time. SMR 

[ShawniganLake]

Dumping mixed rain and snow here. 33F. It's been 1F away from measuring the snow in feet here this month.

[HighlandExperience]

Dumping mixed rain and snow here. 33F. It's been 1F away from measuring the snow in feet here this month.

Depressing eh?

[Jesse]

Depressing eh?

He has done pretty well overall. Better than a torch.

[Jesse]

40/27 at PDX today.

 

Daily mean of 33.5, that monthly average keeps getting pulled a little lower...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some pretty nice wind gust here tonight... Anyone else windy?