December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

I agree. I just think it will be hard to pull off and unlikely even given the current modeled pattern. 

 

The odds aren't ever going to be in favor of it nowadays, that's for sure.

 

Nice that we'll be starting the month off with an immediate string of very chilly weather, though. Gets those monthly means down nice and fast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thoughts on February given the model trends?

 

Keep the party going?

[Deweydog]

18ziety setting in!!!

[FroYoBro]

18ziety setting in!!!

 

I'm mostly just waiting for the 12z for Wednessday. I heard that will be the most accurate model run. 

[Prairiedog]

Autism is why.

Almost 40 years of teaching/coaching baseball and I finally figured out how I did it.  I was autistic!  Someone finally explained it to me.

[Deweydog]

I'm mostly just waiting for the 12z for Wednessday. I heard that will be the most accurate model run.

That was before the update. The deck has been totally reshuffled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ahh the snow has begun here.

[MikeBC]

I haven't seen this heavy snow for a couple of years up here. Its accumulating just over 2 inches of new snow. I hope you guys down in the south will get snow soon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope it gets so fuckkking cold Jim has to walk 7 miles again home!!

[Jesse]

I am predicting an average high of 47.0 and an average low of 35.8 at PDX this January.

 

#playingitsafe

 

#accuracybias

[HighlandExperience]

Ahh the snow has begun here.

You always see snow. What are your chances for white Christmas? Must be 25% or higher at your location.

[Deweydog]

I am predicting an average high of 47.0 and an average low of 35.8 at PDX this January.

 

#playingitsafe

 

#accuracybias

Weenie stress!

[Phil]

Is anyone else having problems signing in to Wunderground?

[Jesse]

Weenie stress!

Kinky, but whatever floats your boat...

[Deweydog]

Kinky, but whatever floats your boat...

Shrinkage may be a HUGE problem in a week or so!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is anyone else having problems signing in to Wunderground?

yep

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Shrinkage may be a HUGE problem in a week or so!

For some..

[EA_TTD]

A legitimate shot at a two-week cold snap with multiple flirtations with snow?  Sign me up!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am predicting an average high of 47.0 and an average low of 35.8 at PDX this January.

 

#playingitsafe

 

#accuracybias

#climo..

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is anyone else having problems signing in to Wunderground?

Nope.. fine for me.

[Phil]

Nope.. fine for me.

I can't log in or change my password and European stations have taken over my favorites tab. Has to be a hack or something.

 

Anyone else?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can't log in or change my password and European stations have taken over my favorites tab. Has to be a hack or something.

 

Anyone else?

Bummer or just server issues. might be on a different server out here in PNW, and that is why I can log in okay

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold air is a little bit delayed at hour 126 on the 18z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No major differences so far.

 

The cutoff is about 100-200 miles further south than the 12z.

[Jesse]

A legitimate shot at a two-week cold snap with multiple flirtations with snow? Sign me up!

Still a chance it might not be one of our coldest Januaries on record though. Next...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run may be slightly milder with the first shot...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Per 18z -- Snowfall on Sunday...

 

 

 

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

2" on the ground and still snowing!

[luvssnow_spokane]

This run may be slightly milder with the first shot...

Yep warmer

 

 

Earlier Runs

 

 

 

 

 

Current Run

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep warmer

 

 

Earlier Runs

 

 

gfs_T2m_nwus_27.png

 

 

Current Run

 

gfs_T2m_nwus_25.png

 

The 06z was probably the coldest with that first shot though...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The overall pattern depiction is essentially unchanged. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Total Snowfall out to Jan 2nd... Looks good for most... The screw zone is over the swamp as always. Shadowing is always the biggest killer for snow here with this setup and flow. Models are showing that well but sure it will change. LOOKS great for about everyone else though

 

 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

You will do well the next few weeks.

 

Edit: I'm surprised you are not seeing snow right now

A light cold rain here at my work (Snohomish/Skagit border along I-5) but not sure what its doing at home. 

[MossMan]

Total Snowfall out to Jan 2nd... Looks good for most... The screw zone is over the swamp as always. Shadowing is always the biggest killer for snow here with this setup and flow. Models are showing that well but sure it will change. LOOKS great for about everyone else though

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_27.png

A thing of beauty! 

[FroYoBro]

I definitely like seeing a low sliding down the coast like that. 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z GFS-Parallel just came in and it looks good. The Arctic Front looks potent and takes a great track for snow accumulations West of the Cascades. It seems like the Arctic Front stalls and is very slow to move on through. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

[Timmy]

Was just snowing here

[Heavy Snow]

What's crazy is, not only does the d10-15 EPS have the entire North American continent below average, but there's another huge area of below average temperatures across Eurasia.

 

Blue everywhere.

 

That's crazy.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks to be much warmer overall compared to previous runs... Moderating big time! -- out to Jan 3rd

 

(images listed newest to oldest)

 

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good looking surface low with the Arctic front on this run.