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January 2017 Observations and Discussion


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Saying good bye is hard to do, but after a very warm 2016, I think a lot of us are excited to begin a New Year!  As we flip the calendar to 2017, is Mother Nature finally going to deliver the goods???

 

Increasing odds that we will see some blocking to develop as both the AO/NAO are forecast to dip negative in tandem.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

SE Ridge isn't going away any time soon...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

I'm becoming more optimistic we will see a wintry pattern to open the month and if the blocking locks, no doubt things will rock as the LRC has some big time storms cycling through mid/late month.

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Castle Peak, CA...what it looks like after 12 feet of snow has fallen...  

Snow has started here. Not expecting more than an inch or so tonight but it's the beginning of what should be a good week of snowfall. Wind is really howling too. Thought it might never snow again aft

A look back at history made in Chicago...the year was...1967  

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If I can't ever get the blocks centered right, my winter is jacked. Was glad to see Lezak put a sort of a retraction out but I still doubt any above normal averages west of central Arkansas or north of the southern border of Tennessee, and that's being pretty gracious. The CFS has been kicking all kinds of butt in the overall atmospheric patterns since autumn. See no reason for that not to continue. Euro weeklies pretty much lock the same pattern in for their entirety. If you've seen one weekly from the last 3 weeks, you could copy it for yesterday's.

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If I can't ever get the blocks centered right, my winter is jacked. Was glad to see Lezak put a sort of a retraction out but I still doubt any above normal averages west of central Arkansas or north of the southern border of Tennessee, and that's being pretty gracious. The CFS has been kicking all kinds of butt in the overall atmospheric patterns since autumn. See no reason for that not to continue. Euro weeklies pretty much lock the same pattern in for their entirety. If you've seen one weekly from the last 3 weeks, you could copy it for yesterday's.

So the glacier rebuilds again for the central CONUS???

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So the glacier rebuilds again for the central CONUS???

Oh yeah. Pretty much all snow over the place. Pretty much locked in cold from d7-d28. I'm sure Bastardi will end up revising his forecast over the center of the country again for January like he did 2 days before December started. I'm surprised he hasn't already actually. If I could ever get an ensemble mean above 5 inches in the Euro Weeklies for the 46 day mean, I'd get a lot more confident about my snow chances. I've seen it bust every weekly since December started on my end (snow) but has done great for you guys and the overall pattern since 2-3 weeks ago.

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Oh yeah. Pretty much all snow over the place. Pretty much locked in cold from d7-d28. I'm sure Bastardi will end up revising his forecast over the center of the country again for January like he did 2 days before December started. I'm surprised he hasn't already actually. If I could ever get an ensemble mean above 5 inches in the Euro Weeklies for the 46 day mean, I'd get a lot more confident about my snow chances. I've seen it bust every weekly since December started on my end (snow) but has done great for you guys and the overall pattern since 2-3 weeks ago.

I agree.  It's time for him to revise it and go with where the pattern has been most consistent.  He can be a hard headed (biased) snow enthusiast!

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k, pardon the OT here, but this is what we haven't seen in SMI in like forever!!  When I was a kid, the trees had not re-grown as much as today across SMI, thus my native farming town and my parent's 'hood there looked just like this photo when the '67 bliz came through. 50 yrs next month is a long time to wait for what ND's gotten several times already. This was just the Dec 6th storm. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

The 70's ofc, featured scenes like this across SMI many times, if not where I was, then in other areas.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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From NWS Gray Maine on the current bomb storm there. Sure would love to be reading this in my local AFD

 

 

Models all agree that total
storm QPF amounts in the 1.5 to 2.25 inch range can be expected
and are plausible. With plenty of cold air in place combined with
these qpf amounts a swath of 10-20 inches of snow can be expected.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looking forward to 2017, at least we have the teleconnections trending the right way when we need it most.  Both AO/NAO are forecast to head deeply negative while a strong -PNA isn't going away.

 

I just hope this can lock in and stick around when the big storms of the LRC hit around mid month!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

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Looking forward to 2017, at least we have the teleconnections trending the right way when we need it most.  Both AO/NAO are forecast to head deeply negative while a strong -PNA isn't going away.

 

I just hope this can lock in and stick around when the big storms of the LRC hit around mid month!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

A -NAO would be better for EC storms then probably for the Midwest I would think.

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A -NAO would be better for EC storms then probably for the Midwest I would think.

Sure, but its hard to do that with a strong -PNA...now, if it were a +PNA, then you would have to worry.  The pattern with those teleconnections would be conducive for an active storm track in our region.  Just hope they don't turn out to be warm cutters.  North America is positioned to fill up with astounding cold this month so it will be interesting to see where the battle zone sets up.

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Once the cold air settles in next week after my soaker on Monday, it stays dry and quite cold. What a waste of all of that air mass. Cold and dry. Thats real special. Tbh, I cannot wait to see how January will turn out. :wacko:

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Sure, but its hard to do that with a strong -PNA...now, if it were a +PNA, then you would have to worry.  The pattern with those teleconnections would be conducive for an active storm track in our region.  Just hope they don't turn out to be warm cutters.  North America is positioned to fill up with astounding cold this month so it will be interesting to see where the battle zone sets up.

 

Rumor is, the system a week from now heads through dixie due to the SE ridge going flat. So, if true, why's that happening when we need it to be there, and what would keep it from doing the same thing next time?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Skilling did a lengthy facebook post today. For those with more knowledge what is he implying when talking about jet stream assisted lift? Thanks

 

 "We're currently "engaged" in the all too typical La Nina "bobble" from chilly arctic air and milder oceanic air. Jet stream shifts drive many of these changes. The 10-degree drop from Wed's 45 to today's 35, while hardly a mammoth decline, is still far chillier than many other readings here this fall and early winter season. And our models continue to bring a huge, colder than normal air mass into the nation's mid-section after the weekend and early week warm-up with temps 24 from the northern Rockies into the Plains winds is to race into the Midwest from the southwest.
Still of interest and not well resolved is ultimate impact this pocket of strong jet stream winds--the "jet streak", which I mentioned in this space last night--and how it might Midwest. I've included several graphics which better illustrate this jet stream speed max and how it's to move in come days. Models still have our region of the midwest beneath the nose of this pocket of strong winds late Monday night and Tuesday. That would be when a vigorous, jet stream-assisted "lift' is generated encouraging air to rise and cool to saturation. With more than 0.80" of evaporated water at that time, it will be interesting to see what impact this has and it's something likely to become cleared in future models runs."

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Welcome to 2017!  The future is here... B) ...hope this year is prosperous for everyone and also a healthy one!  You can't enjoy wealth without good health!

 

Back to the wx dept.  CFSv2 trends are seeing a an extreme cold pool near the northern Rockies/northern Plains and a sharp boundary cutting across our sub forum.  I'm expecting a lot of volatility this month temp wise and a busy month tracking larger storm systems mid/late month.  Hope the blocking in the Arctic locks in as we are going to need it if we want to see a good SW Flow and not these northern stream dominant storms.  

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201701.gif

 

 

 

Precip trends are trending favorably so we shall see how this all plays out... 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201701.gif

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CanSIPS (Canadian) model is indicating almost a similar outlook compared to the CFSv2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017010100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017010100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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Happy New Year!!!!!

Looking out the kitchen window and seeing the sun out if it were not for the patches of snow on the ground and the snow piles by the road it almost looks like spring out there today. That is how green the grass looks where there is no snow cover. Of course the temperature is only 34° and look further over into the woods there is still a lot of snow cover there.  For the start of the new year we look to see a very cold rain.  And believe it or not there is the mention of thunder for late Monday.  That is thunder with rain. One of the events I have not seen much  (I know others have and will say otherwise) since moving to west Michigan in April of 1984 is a true thunder snow storm. The only true one was way back in October of 1997. And before the last one I seen was on April 8th 1984 when I was still in Bay City. As I said there are others who have pointed out that there may have been a clap or two of thunder here and there but I am talking about a big time thunder storm with snow. (it is much better at night time and yes both the 1984 and 1997 events were at night, others that I can recall happened in 1965, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1978 to mention a few.)

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CanSIPS (Canadian) model is indicating almost a similar outlook compared to the CFSv2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017010100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017010100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

Looks like rain outside Dakota's. Lagging Nina influences? I noted that Ninas keep the true cold NW of us, and can just as well mean rain for the lakes. Need neutral ENSO to ensure we get the needed cold air.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Happy New Year!!!!!

Looking out the kitchen window and seeing the sun out if it were not for the patches of snow on the ground and the snow piles by the road it almost looks like spring out there today. That is how green the grass looks where there is no snow cover. Of course the temperature is only 34° and look further over into the woods there is still a lot of snow cover there. For the start of the new year we look to see a very cold rain. And believe it or not there is the mention of thunder for late Monday. That is thunder with rain. One of the events I have not seen much (I know others have and will say otherwise) since moving to west Michigan in April of 1984 is a true thunder snow storm. The only true one was way back in October of 1997. And before the last one I seen was on April 8th 1984 when I was still in Bay City. As I said there are others who have pointed out that there may have been a clap or two of thunder here and there but I am talking about a big time thunder storm with snow. (it is much better at night time and yes both the 1984 and 1997 events were at night, others that I can recall happened in 1965, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1978 to mention a few.)

Marshall had 3-4" of TSSN Feb 2014. The call was for rain, then surprise!! I was @ work in St. Joe and missed it all, ofc.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"Welcome to 2017! The future is here... B) ...hope this year is prosperous for everyone and also a healthy one! You can't enjoy wealth without good health!"

 

Thanks Tom, same back atcha, and Happy New Year to everyone else on this sub-forum too - posters and lurkers!

 

It's been a rather cloudy past 30 days, and as noted, us in SWMI are being treated to a very sunny and pleasant NYD 2017. It did look like spring this morning and had me thinking biking and skating already - LOL. Now we are sure to get tortured with cold! Good snows are looking more sporadic, but cant control that, can we??

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I know the calenda saids January, but, it sure doesn't feel like it. I swear it feels like Spring out there. Not a cloud in the sky and almost has this haze to it, as if it were a humid day in July. Unreal! I've been in Michigan now almost 7 years and I have not seen a real winter since, (only exception is 13-14). The other winters were a joke :rolleyes:.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I know the calenda saids January, but, it sure doesn't feel like it. I swear it feels like Spring out there. Not a cloud in the sky and almost has this haze to it, as if it were a humid day in July. Unreal! I've been in Michigan now almost 7 years and I have not seen a real winter since, (only exception is 13-14). The other winters were a joke :rolleyes:.

Sadly, your experiences over those 7 yrs is typical SMI climo. Wall-to-wall 4 months of winter where 80% of the days are freezing or below is a major rarity, thus you actually caught SEMI's worst winter in 134 yrs - LOL. More common is this "here a month, there a month" winter, with more days of staring at plow piles in parking lots vs actaully have a decent snow covered ground with frigid temps. 2010-11 was actually a strong winter for SEMI as well, were you here that winter? Been some other good to solid seasons as well, thus see 2002-03, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, and even 09-10 wasn't too bad. Though I can't quote specific totals or temps, those seasons were more than just the usual one decent month scenarios.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Took advantage of this nice day today and took down my Christmas lights.  This is the earliest I've ever taken them down as I don't see the point to have them up when there is no snow OTG and none forecast within the next week (maybe next Sun/Mon).  Actually, several neighbors of mine followed suit and took theirs down also.  Hoping for the pattern to giddy up after this cold/boring week of winter weather we will endure.

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Looks like CPC updated their January Outlook and expanded the cold out west....while the east remains Above Normal temp wise...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

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Sadly, your experiences over those 7 yrs is typical SMI climo. Wall-to-wall 4 months of winter where 80% of the days are freezing or below is a major rarity, thus you actually caught SEMI's worst winter in 134 yrs - LOL. More common is this "here a month, there a month" winter, with more days of staring at plow piles in parking lots vs actaully have a decent snow covered ground with frigid temps. 2010-11 was actually a strong winter for SEMI as well, were you here that winter? Been some other good to solid seasons as well, thus see 2002-03, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, and even 09-10 wasn't too bad. Though I can't quote specific totals or temps, those seasons were more than just the usual one decent month scenarios.

No, they were not typical SEMI winters. Last winter and the winters b4 that were above normal and 11-12 was much above. I was told that (SEMI) gets rough winters, but, from what I've seen, not really.

 

Nope, and thank god because NYC had a awesome winter that year 10-11. That December 2010, a massive snowstorm struck the NY Metro area right b4 Christmas and we really got dumped on. You see, there, we get big snows due to Atlantic moisture and gulf moisture combined and if everything falls in place, then look-out, whereas here in SEMI, they get bits and bits and maybe, a big storm from time ta time. Although, winter climate is colder in SEMI and also snowfall averages more in a typical winter season.

Those other highlighted winters were not bad winters either back in NY.  Now, I am not talking about the snowbelt areas, just SEMI. West of the state, I know you guys get clobbered there, no comparison at all.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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No, they were not typical SEMI winters. Last winter and the winters b4 that were above normal and 11-12 was much above. I was told that (SEMI) gets rough winters, but, from what I've seen, not really.

 

Nope, and thank god because NYC had a awesome winter that year 10-11. That December 2010, a massive snowstorm struck the NY Metro area right b4 Christmas and we really got dumped on. You see, there, we get big snows due to Atlantic moisture and gulf moisture combined and if everything falls in place, then look-out, whereas here in SEMI, they get bits and bits and maybe, a big storm from time ta time. Although, winter climate is colder in SEMI and also snowfall averages more in a typical winter season.

Those other highlighted winters were not bad winters either back in NY.  Now, I am not talking about the snowbelt areas, just SEMI. West of the state, I know you guys get clobbered there, no comparison at all.

 

"were above normal and 11-12 was much above. I was told that (SEMI) gets rough winters, but, from what I've seen, not really."

 

Unclear on your response tbh. The seasons that you bolded. Are you agreeing that they were not normal as in above, or below? And are you strictly speaking of temperatures? Because I was speaking almost strictly from the standpoint of snowfall. You can have quite a mild season and still have way above normal snowfall such as we saw in 07-08 but not have great depth, longevity of cover, nor brutal cold waves.

 

Comparing NYC winters to SEMI, long-term avgs would say Detroit will experience many more cold stretches just for the fact that NYC sits right on the ocean, if all else were equal. Detroit gets a stretched out winter of ho-hum 2-4", 5-9" type storms, while in NYC, it basically gets cold when a snowstorm hits, otherwise I think it'd be like an endless late autumn feel around the midwest.

 

If you're looking just for big snows, and not number of days with snow in the air, those east coast locales are hard to beat. It's mild, or you're getting feet of snow at a time. I think there are pluses and minuses to both personally. Oh, and I lived 26 yrs in SEMI, you really don't need to splain to me what the wx is like there. just sayin

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"were above normal and 11-12 was much above. I was told that (SEMI) gets rough winters, but, from what I've seen, not really."

 

Unclear on your response tbh. The seasons that you bolded. Are you agreeing that they were not normal as in above, or below? And are you strictly speaking of temperatures? Because I was speaking almost strictly from the standpoint of snowfall. You can have quite a mild season and still have way above normal snowfall such as we saw in 07-08 but not have great depth, longevity of cover, nor brutal cold waves.

 

Comparing NYC winters to SEMI, long-term avgs would say Detroit will experience many more cold stretches just for the fact that NYC sits right on the ocean, if all else were equal. Detroit gets a stretched out winter of ho-hum 2-4", 5-9" type storms, while in NYC, it basically gets cold when a snowstorm hits, otherwise I think it'd be like an endless late autumn feel around the midwest.

 

If you're looking just for big snows, and not number of days with snow in the air, those east coast locales are hard to beat. It's mild, or you're getting feet of snow at a time. I think there are pluses and minuses to both personally. Oh, and I lived 26 yrs in SEMI, you really don't need to splain to me what the wx is like there. just sayin

Above normal tempwise and below normal snowfall in SEMI 2011-12, 2014-15, 2015-16.

 

I am not explaining to you how the weather is like in SEMI. I am simply stating what I have experienced in the last couple of years here in SEMI and you don't need to explain to me what NYC winters are like, cuz I have lived there for ova 30years and I know how weather goes there.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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As we head into January 2017 its time to take a short look at what happened in December 2016.

Here in GRR December had a average high of 32.1° (34.8° is average) and the average low was 23.0° (23.5° Is ave) the mean was 27.5° (-1.7°) the warmest day was 53° on the 26th and the coldest was +4° on the 12th snow fall the month came in at 37.0” (21.9” is average) the most in one day fell on the 8.9” on the 12th the most on the ground (at the airport) was 9” on the 12th and again on the 17th  there was over 2” on the ground for 18 days straight from the 9th to the 26th and there has been at least a trace on the ground since December 4th

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I know the calenda saids January, but, it sure doesn't feel like it. I swear it feels like Spring out there. Not a cloud in the sky and almost has this haze to it, as if it were a humid day in July. Unreal! I've been in Michigan now almost 7 years and I have not seen a real winter since, (only exception is 13-14). The other winters were a joke :rolleyes:.

Not sure where you live in Macomb county you live. Here is some information on the two locations I have information on in Macomb county, Down by Lake St Clare at Grosse Point the average Hi/lo in January is 32/18 and for the winter the average snow fall is just 28.7" at Mt, Clemens the January H/L is 30/17 and the average seasonal snow fall is only 34.3" to the north at Lapeer  the H/L is 29/13 with a seasonal snow fall of 47.5". It should be pointed out that in the state of Michigan Macomb, Wayne and Monroe counties are the warmest (both summer and winter) have have the least average snow fall amounts in the state (on average) so yes for the most part SE Michigan has milder winters than the rest of Michigan. 

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Not sure where you live in Macomb county you live. Here is some information on the two locations I have information on in Macomb county, Down by Lake St Clare at Grosse Point the average Hi/lo in January is 32/18 and for the winter the average snow fall is just 28.7" at Mt, Clemens the January H/L is 30/17 and the average seasonal snow fall is only 34.3" to the north at Lapeer  the H/L is 29/13 with a seasonal snow fall of 47.5". It should be pointed out that in the state of Michigan Macomb, Wayne and Monroe counties are the warmest (both summer and winter) have have the least average snow fall amounts in the state (on average) so yes for the most part SE Michigan has milder winters than the rest of Michigan. 

Thanks for the info westMJim. Greatly appreciate it.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Above normal tempwise and below normal snowfall in SEMI 2011-12, 2014-15, 2015-16.

 

I am not explaining to you how the weather is like in SEMI. I am simply stating what I have experienced in the last couple of years here in SEMI and you don't need to explain to me what NYC winters are like, cuz I have lived there for ova 30years and I know how weather goes there.

 

Yeah, those were bad seasons overall, though the top 5 historic storm in Feb 2015 redeemed that winter from being a complete train wreck. How would you characterize NYC winters?, and I'm interested in your comparison with SEMI now that you've been here in MI for a good number of seasons. There's always this debate on another forum about Detroit vs the EC cities like NYC or Boston but nobody's actually lived in both like you have. You can look at raw numbers like Jim does, but they only tell half the story imho. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yeah, those were bad seasons overall, though the top 5 historic storm in Feb 2015 redeemed that winter from being a complete train wreck. How would you characterize NYC winters?, and I'm interested in your comparison with SEMI now that you've been here in MI for a good number of seasons. There's always this debate on another forum about Detroit vs the EC cities like NYC or Boston but nobody's actually lived in both like you have. You can look at raw numbers like Jim does, but they only tell half the story imho. 

From experience, the climate in the "Big Apple" is considered to be a mild one (winter season that is) compared to other cities i.e., Detroit, Chicago, Minneapolis and even Boston for that matter. Average high during winter (coldest part of winter) is in the upper 30s and average low is somewhere in the mid 20's. Keep in mind, Central Park is slightly colder due to trees surrounding the area. So, as you can see, even at the coldest part of winter, it is still too warm to snow based on average winter temps. Now, there can be some woof woof moments, let me tell ya. I remember in December 1993, I went to a Christmas party and boy was it cold. High temps neva got outta the single digits and lows dipped below zero that night (-4F to be exact). I had to walk 2 blocks to get to my car (wcf in the -10s) and I ended up with a slight frostbite on my lower part of my left eye. That winter 93-94 was brutal. Dint see grass until late April. The year 95-96 was a record snowfall year smashing the old time record. We ended up with 75.5" total. Now, for NYC, that's plenty, whereas for other cities, its peanuts. In 1997 through 1999, it was awful. From 2000 and up towards 2006, we had decents winters. In 07, and 08 were crappy ones again. It got better again afterwards, especially, 2010-11.

 

Now in comparison with SEMI, no question in my mind, that here, in Michigan (SEMI), the winters are colder, indeed. Yes, we do get more snows here and more frequently, but, what I have notice is that we get them in pieces, another words (2-4", 3-5", 1-3", 4-7") and maybe outta nowhere, we get a woof woof storm (12"+). In conclusion, I have to say that climatewise, SEMI is a colder and snowier one, but, it can have its mild sides as well. Case in point, 2011-12, 14-15, and 15-16.

 

BTW: Cherries here in SEMI in the summertime are phenomenal.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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This is an island called "Chios". It is located NE from Athens, Greece. I go there in the summer to visit family and friends. Anyways, wanted to show the snow that fell there recently and more snow expected by weeks end. If you look close enough to the far left of the pic, you will see some really high mountains covered in snow. It snows there, but not, too often. Maybe winter went there?! :lol:

Snow in Chios.png

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Really not looking forward to the cold this week.

 

Agree 100% - l really don't care for any bitter cold, but it's better if it just stays below freezing. Much easier to take the drop from 32 to 12, than these swings from the 40's and green grass.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This would seem to show some snow spreading into NE tomorrow evening?

 

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Might be enough to whiten up the ground according to the 00z Euro...

 

Should be with less-fluffy system snow. Not sure how surface temps have been or will be during the snow fall, or soil temps for keeping it around after it falls, but compared to the Snow Nazi regime they've had lately, it should be a nice welcomed set-up.

 

Edit: I see the cold has hit NE already - brr  so the ground should be "flash frozen" on top if not very deep. Chill yet to reach MO though

 

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Might be enough to whiten up the ground according to the 00z Euro...

 

S Iowa - ouch! The Snow Nazi must really hate that area - sheesh :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like GRR's updated AFD is calling for one more good soaking today before the arctic front moves through and things get a lot more like winter through the week and into the weekend. They said that the on and off LES may last til Saturday night before it shuts off. Currently in the 30's and from yrs of experience, these set-ups deliver better than when the temps are way above freezing. While LES happens when you start at 50F and drop to 25F, best events are when you start at

 

 

 

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We had some dense fog this morning and could barely see down the block.  Could have sworn it looked like a dreary Spring-like day out there.  Still some mist in the air while it's 39F.  #WhereHasWinterGone  #AZTime

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I picked up 0.25" of rain last evening.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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