January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still shows a lot from now through tomorrow for you still as well.

 

Wow, we shall see!

[Deweydog]

********SLIGHT******** differences between the Euro and GFS at 96 hours.

[Dave]

WWA about to be dropped.  Looks like it's all over.  Maybe I can score some flakes next winter.

Currently, it's 34 degrees with light snow.  lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

********SLIGHT******** differences between the Euro and GFS at 96 hours.

 

OMG are they even initializing the same. lol

[Kayla]

12z euro continues to be very chilly in the lower levels this upcoming week. Next 4 days at PDX -

 

29/26

27/21

27/18

29/16

[FroYoBro]

Currently, it's 34 degrees with light snow.  lol

2017!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deweydog]

12z euro continues to be very chilly in the lower levels this upcoming week. Next 4 days at PDX -

 

29/26

27/21

27/18

29/16

At the very least the 29 for tomorrow is laughable.

[Kayla]

Missoula NWS thinks that the arctic front is delayed by at least 6 hours. Maybe this comes with the push ahead of the front when it clears all the gunk out and gives it a little lift for some extra showers?

 

Definitely a good theory. Really surprised to see it showing the moisture stick around into tomorrow and it's the first and only model showing it right now. I guess we'll see!

 

How much snow do you have in Missoula currently?

[Perturbed Member]

True but it's still very generous from now into tomorrow for you guys north of the Columbia especially. Moisture just keeps sticking around and is VERY slow to sink south.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-01 at 10.12.15 AM.png

 

A widespread 1-2 inches in the metro area between about now and tomorrow huh? Would be nice if it happened, the pesky south wind is gone at least. 

[Kayla]

At the very least the 29 for tomorrow is laughable.

 

After you said that I just realized that they actually have a late morning high of 32 tomorrow then temps drop down to 29 by 4pm.

 

Maybe a bit more believable?

[epiceast]

Definitely a good theory. Really surprised to see it showing the moisture stick around into tomorrow and it's the first and only model showing it right now. I guess we'll see!

 

How much snow do you have in Missoula currently?

8", no new snow for about a week except for a dusting a few days ago. Getting a little worried because the deformation band seems to be just 10 miles to the north atm and not moving in any direction.

[BLI snowman]

Euro is probably overly generous, we'll see. With the snow and cold.

[Goducks09]

12z euro continues to be very chilly in the lower levels this upcoming week. Next 4 days at PDX -

 

29/26

27/21

27/18

29/16

 

I can certainly live with this.  Not historic - but anomalous.  At this point, that's all we can really ask for!

[Perturbed Member]

NAVGEM pretty much nailed the track of this low and the fact that there would be substantially more precip. Really outperformed most of the models on this one, especially the GFS. 

 

Maybe it always overdoes precip and this time it just worked out? 

[FroYoBro]

After you said that I just realized that they actually have a late morning high of 32 tomorrow then temps drop down to 29 by 4pm.

 

Maybe a bit more believable?

Yeah, that sounds more believable. Probably make it above freezing as the offshore flow doesn't look impressive yet. 

[Kayla]

A widespread 1-2 inches in the metro area between about now and tomorrow huh? Would be nice if it happened, the pesky south wind is gone at least. 

 

That's what it says at least... Hard to believe honestly.

[Deweydog]

After you said that I just realized that they actually have a late morning high of 32 tomorrow then temps drop down to 29 by 4pm.

 

Maybe a bit more believable?

Not really. Hard to see a scenario where they don't rise to 34-35 tomorrow. Maybe the Euro is assuming solid snow cover.

[MossMan]

According to NWS Seattle the Arctic front is stalled at the border but should pick up the pace in a few hours! 32 here and foggy...and no melting yet!

[Kayla]

Not really. Hard to see a scenario where they don't rise to 34-35 tomorrow. Maybe the Euro is assuming solid snow cover.

 

Yeah must be it would seem. Would be a huge surprise to everyone if they ended up picking up 1-2" later today into tonight.

[Jesse]

Euro is probably overly generous, we'll see. With the snow and cold.

I don't think the GFS even had a single ensemble member that looked as good as the Euro. Then again the colder solution has support from the GEM.

[Perturbed Member]

That's what it says at least... Hard to believe honestly.

 

Yeah not sure any other model shows that so not counting on anything happening, but it would be a pleasant surprise. 

[BLI snowman]

Most model data supports 31-32 for a high tomorrow at PDX. 514 thickness and offshore flow makes it believable.

[TT-SEA]

My son did the polar bear plunge this morning with some friends at the lake near our house... they had to break the ice to make a spot to get into the water.  

 

 

[MossMan]

The dogs have also been enjoying the snow of the last several weeks! My Border Collies in spring mode waiting for me to fling that ball!

[BLI snowman]

I don't think the GFS even had a single ensemble member that looked as good as the Euro. Then again the colder solution has support from the GEM.

 

GEM is a nice blend of the two. Aggressive enough with the cut-off energy to give us a little snowstorm, but keeps the block more or less in place afterwards and gives us a couple more cold days at the end of the week.

 

Of course if the Euro is right then we'll get the snow first and then have a solid low level arctic event all week.

 

Both would be okay by me. All is potentially right with the world in 2017.

[MossMan]

My son did the polar bear plunge this morning with some friends at the lake near our house... they had to break the ice to make a spot to get into the water.

 

 

Should have put the boat in the water and did some wakeboarding/wake surfing!

[Deweydog]

I don't think the GFS even had a single ensemble member that looked as good as the Euro. Then again the colder solution has support from the GEM.

Ensembles have been just as useless as the operationals.

[Deweydog]

Light snow here!!!!!!!

 

Kinda...

[MossMan]

GEM is a nice blend of the two. Aggressive enough with the cut-off energy to give us a little snowstorm, but keeps the block more or less in place afterwards and gives us a couple more cold days at the end of the week.

 

Of course if the Euro is right then we'll get the snow first and then have a solid low level arctic event all week.

 

Both would be okay by me. All is potentially right with the world in 2017.

I know this is annoying to many people but how does the GEM and or Euro look for the Puget sound? Nice, or would even those scenarios be only a gorge induced events later in the week?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is a shot of my dusting.

I got just a little more than you around 3/4 an inch or so. I am glad you got something though!  

[Kayla]

GEM is a nice blend of the two. Aggressive enough with the cut-off energy to give us a little snowstorm, but keeps the block more or less in place afterwards and gives us a couple more cold days at the end of the week.

 

Of course if the Euro is right then we'll get the snow first and then have a solid low level arctic event all week.

 

Both would be okay by me. All is potentially right with the world in 2017.

 

Agreed. It's really nice to have the GEM closer to the euro camp than the GFS at this time. The 00z euro ensembles continued to look really great which helps to inspire confidence of at least a blend of the GEM/ECMWF.

[Jesse]

Ensembles have been just as useless as the operationals.

Indeed.

[Kayla]

Light snow here!!!!!!!

 

Kinda...

 

Kinda? Is the liquid falling from the sky half frozen?

[Perturbed Member]

Agreed. It's really nice to have the GEM closer to the euro camp than the GFS at this time. The 00z euro ensembles continued to look really great which helps to inspire confidence of at least blend of the GEM/ECMWF.

 

What does the euro do with the low on Wednesday? Does it just stay well to the south near CA?

[BLI snowman]

I know this is annoying to many people but how does the GEM and or Euro look for the Puget sound? Nice, or would even those scenarios be only a gorge induced events later in the week?

 

The Euro is far sturdier with the block so it keeps the whole region colder through the end of the week. 

 

GEM is somewhat similar but a bit milder overall.

 

Both setup the Puget Sound region for a little overrunning action next weekend, but it would be a quick event.

[Deweydog]

Kinda? Is the liquid falling from the sky half frozen?

Correct. More like 65/35.

[Bryant]

Snapped this pic down the road on the way to work. Ended with 3.5"

 

http://i.imgur.com/mc7n2HKh.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Agreed. It's really nice to have the GEM closer to the euro camp than the GFS at this time. The 00z euro ensembles continued to look really great which helps to inspire confidence of at least a blend of the GEM/ECMWF.

 

Even the GFS shows 1-3" of snow for the Portland region on Wednesday at this point, and looks likely to keep us in a low level cold pattern trough Friday. Could be worse I guess, but it certainly goes haywire with that cutoff low.

[Kayla]

What does the euro do with the low on Wednesday? Does it just stay well to the south near CA?

 

Yeah, goes through NorCal about 150 miles north of SF.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro looks pretty generous for wrap around moisture over the PDX area this afternoon FWIW.

 

Edit - Wow, actually keeps the precip going well into tomorrow now... The plot thickens!

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-01 at 10.03.00 AM.png

Yah for Oregon... AGAIN!      <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">