January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I can second the summers. The summers west of the Cascades are the best on the continent without question. To the bane of the weather enthusiast but to the joy of everyone, we go three to five months in a year with perfect afternoons that fade into beautiful evenings.

 

Our summers are a little more variable than that, with everything from persistent cold drizzle that drives some to the brink of insanity to heat that challenges even midwest and east coast locations possible, but I will agree with you that they are pretty nice on the whole.

[Front Ranger]

There is no strong agreement in the LR ensembles at this point, but I'm not seeing any promising blocking signal showing up. Much different than what we saw Dec - early January.

 

Plenty of time for that to change before the end of the month.

[Phil]

There is no strong agreement in the LR ensembles at this point, but I'm not seeing any promising blocking signal showing up. Much different than what we saw Dec - early January.

 

Plenty of time for that to change before the end of the month.

Going to take until the first week of February, I think. The GFS looks worse than the rest of the modeling, though.

[Phil]

Our summers are a little more variable than that, with everything from persistent cold drizzle that drives some to the brink of insanity to heat that challenges even midwest and east coast locations possible, but I will agree with you that they are pretty nice on the whole.

I'd argue that your summers are actually more variable compared to ours. At least in terms of temperature variations, you guys see much more activity than us.

 

We don't see much variability under that fat Bermuda High. Just sits there for months on end, pumping in heat and water.

[Front Ranger]

The natural scenic beauty of King County is simply awesome. From the Sound to the Cascades. And you have a thriving metro area as well. Its a good fit for us. The March - June period can be hard. Price you pay I guess.

 

I think this idea has been exaggerated to an extent by a few really wet/cold springs in the 2008-12 period. That was a pretty unusual stretch.

 

But then you have the 2013-2016 stretch, which was quite different. Historically, spring can certainly be wet and annoyingly cool, but overall March-June (and especially May/June) are far different than the extended winter some make it out to be. Much drier and sunnier than Nov-Feb, especially in the Seattle area. 

[jaya]

Going to take until the first week of February, I think. The GFS looks worse than the rest of the modeling, though.

I've noticed through the years that it is very rare to set a pattern up and for it to last for more that 30-45 days.  I believe that the overall pattern of west coast trough with big blocks started in early-mid December (in the mean).  Then, there has been a tendency for a block and ridge around 155-160W.  As mean zonal flow decreases with the upcoming seasonal change, I would not be surprised to see the west coast trough retrograde back to 140W or so and give a ridge to the west.  Warm November, cold Dec-Jan, Warm Feb would not be out of the question.  Go back to the big winters (49-50, 92-93 -in the west, 08-09) you'll find that the pattern does not persist forever.  Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a cold Feb would be hard -not impossible, but hard).  Just saying this from a climatological standpoint - not from looking at the tropics or models.

[Jesse]

I'd argue that your summers are actually more variable compared to ours. At least in terms of temperature variations, you guys see much more activity than us.

 

We don't see much variability under that fat Bermuda High. Just sits there for months on end, pumping in heat and water.

 

I don't know a lot about your summers and the range of their potential. Averages are the deepest I've looked into East Coast summers.

 

I do know that PDX has seen highs range from 50s to 100s in July and August, and lows range from low 40s to low 70s.

[dairyd]

Rub it in why don't ya?

 

This is the dewpoint hell I have to suffer through. This is only the average daily maximum. The absolute maximums are several degrees higher.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ED6F851D-DDA0-4BCC-BDC3-04E6D2E767D5_zpsuptz4b0a.png

 

This is what I came from in Gainesville:

 

And this was typical temps in central valley Calif.

 

[Front Ranger]

Going to take until the first week of February, I think. The GFS looks worse than the rest of the modeling, though.

 

The GFS ensembles actually look more promising to me than the GEM ensembles. I don't have access to Euro ensembles beyond 240 hours.

 

 

Either way, the strong blocking signal that has been present this winter to date has yet to reappear.

[jaya]

I don't know a lot about your summers and the range of their potential.

 

I do know that PDX has seen highs range from 50s to 100s in July and August, and lows range from low 40s to low 70s.

Summers are much nicer north of Seattle, where I am.  When Seattle is sweltering, we are enjoying a nice northwesterly breeze from the Strait here in Everett!  I really love our summers.  I see 1 90 deg high a year.  The drizzly summer days are good breaks from the sunshine and 70s to around 80 that burns out my lawn.

[TT-SEA]

I think this idea has been exaggerated to an extent by a few really wet/cold springs in the 2008-12 period. That was a pretty unusual stretch.

 

But then you have the 2013-2016 stretch, which was quite different. Historically, spring can certainly be wet and annoyingly cool, but overall March-June (and especially May/June) are far different than the extended winter some make it out to be. Much drier and sunnier than Nov-Feb, especially in the Seattle area.

 

This January might well be sunnier than May.

[Front Ranger]

I don't know a lot about your summers and the range of their potential. Averages are the deepest I've looked into East Coast summers.

 

I do know that PDX has seen highs range from 50s to 100s in July and August, and lows range from low 40s to low 70s.

 

That's actually really similar to here. Goes to show how different summer is than winter!

 

Winter is obviously WAY more variable here, and more than the east coast as well.

[snow_wizard]

I have lived in several parts of the country, and am from Florida originally.  I am so happy with our climate in the northwest! Our summers are the best. Our microclimates are very interesting. If you want snow, it is a short drive to the mountains (if the traffic doesn't bother you!), and it really isn't any more cloudy or damp here than it is in the upper midwest (Cleveland comes to mind).  It is really not cold in the winter (I can get used to 30s to 50s much easier than -25 with wind!)  It is a bit boring when it comes to severe weather, snowstorms, etc. but - whose complaining - we can watch those on the TV news!  Nothing like rebuilding your house after a hurricane, watching a neighbor lose everything in a tornado, ...  I think I'll stay here and drive around to get my weather fix!  I love snow, but that is not all there is in the weather world!

Driving to snow is just depressing to me. What good is it? The downer of coming back more than offsets the fun of going to it. The whole point people have been making on here is it should have snowed here with 6 weeks of cold weather. 30s to 50s may be a bit of an exaggeration of how mild it is here. We have had 6 weeks it has failed to reach 50.

[jaya]

The GFS ensembles actually look more promising to me than the GEM ensembles. I don't have access to Euro ensembles beyond 240 hours.

 

GEMens.gif

 

Either way, the strong blocking signal that has been present this winter to date has yet to reappear.

I see some potential a couple days after this (if it verifies)...  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017011600&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Front Ranger]

This January might well be sunnier than May.

 

I'd still bet that May/June end up drier and sunnier than this Dec/Jan. 

[Phil]

The GFS ensembles actually look more promising to me than the GEM ensembles. I don't have access to Euro ensembles beyond 240 hours.

 

GEMens.gif

 

Either way, the strong blocking signal that has been present this winter to date has yet to reappear.

For a -EPO precursor pattern, I'd prefer the GGEM/EPS ensembles over the GEFS..that +WPO is important. Verbatim, the progression on the GEFS would favor the Midwest/East during February, as opposed to the west (which I'm rooting for personally but not publicly ).

[dairyd]

Our summers are a little more variable than that, with everything from persistent cold drizzle that drives some to the brink of insanity to heat that challenges even midwest and east coast locations possible, but I will agree with you that they are pretty nice on the whole.

 

With only the day or two of dewpoint deep inland on the Fraser near 70 per year would come close to rival THI of a typical midwest or east coast summer heat day.   PNW coast heat save a day or two a year is not the same...just look at any GDD map.   90* with a 60 dewpoint is not the same as 90* with a 74 dewpoint back east.

[jaya]

Driving to snow is just depressing to me. What good is it? The downer of coming back more than offsets the fun of going to it. The whole point people have been making on here is it should have snowed here with 6t weeks of cold weather. 30s to 50s may be a bit of an exaggeration of how mild it is here. We have had 6 weeks it has failed to reach 50.

I have mixed feelings about snow.  I love it - when I'm off.  I hate it when I have to chisel my car to get into it, and drive up and down hills with others who have no clue when on my work at O-dark-30.  It is nice for a couple of days, but after a short while it gets old.  I lived somewhere in the upper midwest before I came here where it would be cold enough that my car had to be warmed up 20 min before it would run and the tires would go out-of-round.  Not cold enough for plug in block heaters everywhere.  Not fun. 

[Front Ranger]

I see some potential a couple days after this (if it verifies)...  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017011600&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Yeah, if you look really hard way towards the end it looks mildly promising.

 

Like I said, plenty of time for improvement.

[snow_wizard]

I've noticed through the years that it is very rare to set a pattern up and for it to last for more that 30-45 days.  I believe that the overall pattern of west coast trough with big blocks started in early-mid December (in the mean).  Then, there has been a tendency for a block and ridge around 155-160W.  As mean zonal flow decreases with the upcoming seasonal change, I would not be surprised to see the west coast trough retrograde back to 140W or so and give a ridge to the west.  Warm November, cold Dec-Jan, Warm Feb would not be out of the question.  Go back to the big winters (49-50, 92-93 -in the west, 08-09) you'll find that the pattern does not persist forever.  Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a cold Feb would be hard -not impossible, but hard).  Just saying this from a climatological standpoint - not from looking at the tropics or models.

92-93 actually had persistent cold the second half of February. Not that it would probably matter anyway. Snow probably isn't in the cards for Seattle this winter.

[Jesse]

With only the day or two of dewpoint deep inland on the Fraser near 70 per year would come close to rival THI of a typical midwest or east coast summer heat day.   PNW coast heat save a day or two a year is not the same...just look at any GDD map.   90* with a 60 dewpoint is not the same as 90* with a 74 dewpoint back east.

 

I was talking about absolute temperature. Heat index is a different story.

[DareDuck]

Were you a Eugene visitor, or resident back then? I can say that I absolutely hate fog. We get tons of it here. More than any other location in the valley.

I hate, hate, hate the inversions Eugene gets stuck under. I hated Jan 13 so much, a big part of the reason I moved was I hated being stuck under 33 and fog with that crappy smell while it was perfectly sunny and in the mid 50s every else. Bend rarely gets any fog inversions. I really like Bends climate, but I think I would enjoy the La Pine/Sunriver area a bit more.

[jaya]

92-93 actually had persistent cold the second half of February. Not that it would probably matter anyway. Snow probably isn't in the cards for Seattle this winter.

Yeah, but that was after a couple of weeks of very warm during the first half of the month. 

[TT-SEA]

I have mixed feelings about snow. I love it - when I'm off. I hate it when I have to chisel my car to get into it, and drive up and down hills with others who have no clue when on my work at O-dark-30. It is nice for a couple of days, but after a short while it gets old. I lived somewhere in the upper midwest before I came here where it would be cold enough that my car had to be warmed up 20 min before it would run and the tires would go out-of-round. Not cold enough for plug in block heaters everywhere. Not fun.

 

I like snow... but I am ready for it to be gone. We come back from Vegas tomorrow night and looking forward to a warm and windy and sometimes rainy week. Gets old being so cold.

[jaya]

I like snow... but I am ready for it to be gone. We come back from Vegas tomorrow night and looking forward to a warm and windy and sometimes rainy week. Gets old being so cold

Especially when your getting older!  I have a much harder time dealing with the cold now that when I was in my 30s!  Joints hurt, temperature sensitivity increases (both hot and cold), ...  But I guess it beats the alternative!

[Front Ranger]

I've noticed through the years that it is very rare to set a pattern up and for it to last for more that 30-45 days.  I believe that the overall pattern of west coast trough with big blocks started in early-mid December (in the mean).  Then, there has been a tendency for a block and ridge around 155-160W.  As mean zonal flow decreases with the upcoming seasonal change, I would not be surprised to see the west coast trough retrograde back to 140W or so and give a ridge to the west.  Warm November, cold Dec-Jan, Warm Feb would not be out of the question.  Go back to the big winters (49-50, 92-93 -in the west, 08-09) you'll find that the pattern does not persist forever.  Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a cold Feb would be hard -not impossible, but hard).  Just saying this from a climatological standpoint - not from looking at the tropics or models.

 

I agree this is true as a general rule. The persistence of cold from early December to date was highly unusual, and a relaxation of the pattern had to happen eventually.

 

However, some winters like 1948-49, 1955-56, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1978-79, 1984-85, and 1992-93 saw the same general cold patterns reset all the way through Feb or even Mar. Even 2008-09 had some cold weather and lowland snow return in Feb and Mar.

 

At this point, I would lean towards a 60% chance of significant cold and lowland snow chances reappearing at some point this winter, especially given the fact that not much is changing from a forcing perspective.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty obvious things are trending in a very good way at the end of the 0z GFS, but that's a long ways out. It kind of agrees with the thoughts of the 12z ECMWF ensemble though. All of the chunks of blocking want to migrate back to Alaska.

[Phil]

I don't know a lot about your summers and the range of their potential. Averages are the deepest I've looked into East Coast summers.

 

I do know that PDX has seen highs range from 50s to 100s in July and August, and lows range from low 40s to low 70s.

Yeah, that's unheard of here. Most of our July/August afternoons are in the 90s, some in the 80s if convection starts earlier, but those days are often more humid. Dewpoints are usually steady between 70-75, rarely below 65 or above 85.

 

I've never seen a high temperature below 74F in July, and that was a day with cloudcover and 100% humidity (70+ dews). In fact, in my lifetime I've observed more 100F+ afternoons than sub-80 afternoons in July/August.

[Jesse]

I've noticed through the years that it is very rare to set a pattern up and for it to last for more that 30-45 days.  I believe that the overall pattern of west coast trough with big blocks started in early-mid December (in the mean).  Then, there has been a tendency for a block and ridge around 155-160W.  As mean zonal flow decreases with the upcoming seasonal change, I would not be surprised to see the west coast trough retrograde back to 140W or so and give a ridge to the west.  Warm November, cold Dec-Jan, Warm Feb would not be out of the question.  Go back to the big winters (49-50, 92-93 -in the west, 08-09) you'll find that the pattern does not persist forever.  Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a cold Feb would be hard -not impossible, but hard).  Just saying this from a climatological standpoint - not from looking at the tropics or models.

 

This winter is already out on the edge of the Bell's Curve as far as pattern persistence.  It pushed past what is normal duration for sustained cold in this region awhile ago, so we are in more rarefied territory now, playing by rarefied rules.

 

That said, many winters that have seen this level of persistent cold to this point have tended to see it persist beyond this point.

[snow_wizard]

I agree this is true as a general rule. The persistence of cold from early December to date was highly unusual, and a relaxation of the pattern had to happen eventually.

 

However, some winters like 1948-49, 1955-56, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1978-79, 1984-85, and 1992-93 saw the same general cold patterns reset all the way through Feb or even Mar. Even 2008-09 had some cold weather and lowland snow return in Feb and Mar.

 

At this point, I would lean towards a 60% chance of significant cold and lowland snow chances reappearing at some point this winter, especially given the fact that not much is changing from a forcing perspective.

For some reason 60% kind of popped into my head yesterday also. Pretty good chance it will happen.

[Front Ranger]

For a -EPO precursor pattern, I'd prefer the GGEM/EPS ensembles over the GEFS..that +WPO is important. Verbatim, the progression on the GEFS would favor the Midwest/East during February, as opposed to the west (which I'm rooting for personally but not publicly ).

 

Yeah, either way we're kind of grasping for straws to find anything worth mentioning right now. If nothing has changed in a week, I'll be a little worried.

[Jesse]

I agree this is true as a general rule. The persistence of cold from early December to date was highly unusual, and a relaxation of the pattern had to happen eventually.

 

However, some winters like 1948-49, 1955-56, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1978-79, 1984-85, and 1992-93 saw the same general cold patterns reset all the way through Feb or even Mar. Even 2008-09 had some cold weather and lowland snow return in Feb and Mar.

 

At this point, I would lean towards a 60% chance of significant cold and lowland snow chances reappearing at some point this winter, especially given the fact that not much is changing from a forcing perspective.

 

Good post. This is kind of what I just said but probably more coherent.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty crazy that PDX has seen three straight highs in the 20s from this, by the way. I wonder when the last time Portland saw a low level inversion this cold and persistent?

[Phil]

I've noticed through the years that it is very rare to set a pattern up and for it to last for more that 30-45 days. I believe that the overall pattern of west coast trough with big blocks started in early-mid December (in the mean). Then, there has been a tendency for a block and ridge around 155-160W. As mean zonal flow decreases with the upcoming seasonal change, I would not be surprised to see the west coast trough retrograde back to 140W or so and give a ridge to the west. Warm November, cold Dec-Jan, Warm Feb would not be out of the question. Go back to the big winters (49-50, 92-93 -in the west, 08-09) you'll find that the pattern does not persist forever. Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a cold Feb would be hard -not impossible, but hard). Just saying this from a climatological standpoint - not from looking at the tropics or models.

I agree with you. After the first week of February, I think winter might be (mostly) done in the west, at least for several weeks.

 

Though, I think the (potential) SSW is something that could change that equation, but might take until March to affect things substantially? Complicated transition upcoming here.

[snow_wizard]

I like snow... but I am ready for it to be gone. We come back from Vegas tomorrow night and looking forward to a warm and windy and sometimes rainy week. Gets old being so cold.

You're wimping out dude!

 

Having your snow fix taken care of may change your perspective though. I'm kind of bummed we are only a few more cold days away from being able to ice fish on Lake Meridian. Would have been pretty cool.

[dairyd]

I was talking about absolute temperature. Heat index is a different story.

 

You did say 'heat'.  Dew point measures the absolute value of water vapor in the air which is an indirect measure of the amount of latent heat energy in the form of heat of vaporization stored below the dew point. The higher the dew point the more latent heat.  That is why summer lows cool down so much in the PNW but not in the midwest/east/SE, too much latent HV. 

 

I use the dewpoints to set my edstrom controller for the sprinklers.

[luminen]

Were you a Eugene visitor, or resident back then?  I can say that I absolutely hate fog.  We get tons of it here.  More than any other location in the valley.

 

I was a resident back then. I hated the fog there so much. I also lived in the northern Willamette Valley which also gets its fair share of winter fog but nothing like I saw in Eugene. It was like living in a dense murky soup that month and the sunshine hours were extremely/depressingly low. 

 

December 2013 more than made up for it though. 

[Jesse]

There is no strong agreement in the LR ensembles at this point, but I'm not seeing any promising blocking signal showing up. Much different than what we saw Dec - early January.

 

Plenty of time for that to change before the end of the month.

 

I still remember Andrew making a post stating that it looked like there was nothing interesting coming up for the lowlands for a long time judging by the models at the tail end of the early December event. That didn't work out too well.

 

I think once we get on the other side of the upcoming pattern change midweek, where we go next could start to come into focus a little better.

[Jesse]

You did say 'heat'.  Dew point measures the absolute value of water vapor in the air which is an indirect measure of the amount of latent heat energy in the form of heat of vaporization stored below the dew point. The higher the dew point the more latent heat.  That is why summer lows cool down so much in the PNW but not in the midwest/east/SE, too much latent HV. 

 

I use the dewpoints to set my edstrom controller for the sprinklers.

 

I should have clarified then. I was only talking about absolute temperatures. 

 

Portland's all time high of 107 beats many east coast and midwest cities. Although this says nothing about how the airmass feels to a human being obviously.

[jaya]

I should have clarified then. I was only talking about absolute temperatures. 

 

Portland's all time high of 107 beats many east coast and midwest cities. Although this says nothing about how the airmass feels to a human being obviously.

When I lived on the Gulf coast, I remember a 92 with a dewpoint of 83.  You could see your breath.  I almost fainted after walking a couple of blocks.  That was worse that the 103 we had here a few years back - even without air conditioning here.  Our April-October climate is incredible here!