January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rationalization!!!!!!!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

You talk yourself in circles.

Its not that important. Spring is coming though. That is for sure.

Stop.

[Bryant]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

 

Its not that important. Spring is coming though. That is for sure.

You started this post with BS, and you ended with BS. Consistency!

[Jesse]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

To be fair, he was referring to two different ideas with those statements.

[TT-SEA]

It's been an unbelievable week here around the area. In terms of snow and very cold temperatures, I have never seen this before. Some of the roads are as hard as a brick. It has felt like I've been driving through an Arctic Tundra the past few days.

Nothing will compare again. Just awesome that it happened.

[Deweydog]

Rationalization!!!!!!!!!!

He was talking about two different things. You're just looking for a reason to be a sh*t arter having to take an absence-forced hiatus.

[TT-SEA]

You started this post with BS, and you ended with BS. Consistency!

You should know... you are the BS king.

[Jesse]

It's been an unbelievable week here around the area. In terms of snow and very cold temperatures, I have never seen this before. Some of the roads are as hard as a brick. It has felt like I've been driving through an Arctic Tundra the past few days.

It has been an absolute dreamscape.

[TT-SEA]

He was talking about two different things. You're just looking for a reason to be a sh*t arter having to take an absence-forced hiatus.

Just general rationalizing.

[Deweydog]

Just general rationalizing.

Rationalizing what?

[TT-SEA]

It has been an absolute dreamscape.

Just incredible that something you have waited for years actually happened. Does this rank higher than 2008 for you because of the sun and cold combo to follow?

[TT-SEA]

Rationalizing what?

Everything.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, he was referring to two different ideas with those statements.

I know.

[Deweydog]

One thing I will say is WSDOT did a great job in Clark County with plowing aggressively early on Wednesday. The difference between Portland and Vancouver is huge, although a larger swath of Portland did have the higher totals. The main highways have been essentially entirely clear here since midday Wednesday.

 

In 2008 they were very passive and paid the price when the deep freeze persisted longer than expected.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Quite a few differences here.

 

1921-22 was a pretty snowy winter down this way

Jan 1935 was very snowy in the Puget Sound region

1965-66 was quite snowy here

Dec 1974 had a big rain to snow event down here

 

That having been said long low snow periods have happened here while Portland has done much better.

 

It looks like 1965 - 1966 was also quite snowy in Victoria with a little over 41" on the winter and a decent stretch with snow cover. I didn't include that year because it never really went Arctic, there weren't any days that stayed below freezing. But it still looks like an enjoyable winter. I don't see anything notable in Dec 1974 in our data (no snow or Arctic temperatures), but Jan 1975 could arguably pass my criteria as it featured snow going into a cold airmass and a snowy extended transition out of it (one day had a high right at freezing and there was about 12" of snow); there was also a decent snowfall in Feb 1974.

 

I'm less confident on the older data, but it looks like the big Arctic blast in Dec 1921 was snowless (so I didn't include it), but there were other more marginal events that brought snow. Jan 1935 looks like it featured a big overrunning event but little-to-no snow going into the Arctic blast.

[dairyd]

One thing for sure....the models are going to have fits trying to figure out the coming pattern. Highly abnormal configuration coming up. The ECMWF shows a highly blocked pattern returning in week two with a high chance of well below normal temperatures once again. An emerging MJO wave is only going to muddy the waters even more. My biggest concern is the type of pattern coming up may find little opportunity to bring us moisture and cold together. Impossible to know for sure though.

 

Did you see the 10mb high setting up with rising 500mb heights starting 22 Jan? Looks like the jet dives south of us at the same time and upper air temps dive.  Seems GFS picks this up with bona fide Pacific block hr 360.

[TT-SEA]

Did you see the 10mb high setting up with rising 500mb heights starting 22 Jan? Looks like the jet dives south of us at the same time and upper air temps dive. Seems GFS picks this up with bona fide Pacific block hr 360.

I am sort of skeptical.

 

ECMWF looks cool with low snow levels but does not look like an ideal block is returning. Hard to call... I just have a feeling the east will be colder in Feb and Mar and warmer in the west. We are also going to be in Florida in Feb so of course it will be cold there then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this has been a much better winter overall in Oregon than 08-09

[Weather101]

Hopefully we can score one more cold snap with snow this winter.

[Phil]

One thing for sure....the models are going to have fits trying to figure out the coming pattern. Highly abnormal configuration coming up. The ECMWF shows a highly blocked pattern returning in week two with a high chance of well below normal temperatures once again. An emerging MJO wave is only going to muddy the waters even more. My biggest concern is the type of pattern coming up may find little opportunity to bring us moisture and cold together. Impossible to know for sure though.

One thing to keep in mind, is that maintaining a full wave1/MJO is important if you're seeking a return to winter.

 

The MJO is developing as a result of reduced static stability in the tropics, and this reduction in static stability is a product of wave driving into the stratosphere, as depicted via poleward eliassen palm vectors. This wave driving is occurring as a result of the ongoing pattern (+WPO/EAMT, Hudson Bay/NAO ridge, and a more +PNA). This pattern opens idealized conduits for poleward wave driving, weakens the PV, cools the equatorial tropopause, reduces tropical static stability, and ignites the MJO.

 

So, ideally, we'd like to continue with this sort of "niño-ish" pattern until the PV can be dismantled, which would allow for a strong, fully coupled MJO wave to circle the globe, returning to the Niña domain(s). At which point, the chances for a significant Arctic blast will increase substantially.

 

If this progression sputters, and we return to a "dirty ridge" pattern too soon, the chances for an Arctic blast in February will decrease, and the cold will probably slide east. So, not returning to a -PNA/dirty ridge too soon would be my priority.

[Shawn]

A huge issue this time is frozen ground. Water is going to have a very difficult time soaking in. The ground is frozen pretty deep in places that don't have snow cover.

Thats what happened in 96 here.  Ground was frozen and the water just ran off the first 12 hours.  Water just poured onto highway 30.  Between Scappoose and Portland.

[Jesse]

Just incredible that something you have waited for years actually happened. Does this rank higher than 2008 for you because of the sun and cold combo to follow?

For me it has. The heavy dump of snow followed by sunshine and colder absolute temps has put this event ahead of 2008.

 

The context of this event, happening within the coldest six week period in the Portland metro in almost 40 years also gives it bonus points.

[Blizzard777]

Heading to Lake Oswego early Tuesday morning. What are the chances old man winter want to cause more issues with frozen precipitation down there? According to everything I've read sounds like no issues and just lots of warm rain with the possible flooding.

I never trust or underestimate the gorge and it's ability to create its own mess!

[luminen]

Sounds like the boys at Environment Canada are glad to see some heavy, tropical-driven rain return and decimate the snow and "cold" temperatures. As if we didn't get enough rain in October and November. 

 

 

 

==Discussion==

The cold outbreak over the South Coast will finally end as mild
Pacific air and rain move in on Monday...

Many south coastal communities have had snow on the ground since
December 5 but this is about to change. The persistent blocking
ridge over western Canada that allowed cold Arctic air to settle
along the coast will finally start to weaken on Monday. This will
allow a series of mild and very moist Pacific storms to move
onshore.

Satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture originating near the
Philippines streaming towards the BC coast. Rain associated with
this plume is expected to begin on Monday and to become heavy at
times Monday night. There is potential for an extended period of
moderate to heavy rain continuing until Tuesday night or early
Wednesday.

Areas along the immediate coast are expected to warm sufficiently so
that precipitation begins as rain. Inland areas such as port
alberni, hope and squamish could see a period of snow or freezing
rain to begin with as mild air moves over the entrenched cold air.
Further inland in Whistler and along the sea to sky Highway,
precipitation will start as snow and slowly transition to rain
Monday night.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I would recommend everyone go to the Pendleton Nws website and download their PDF wrap up of December. It was truly a special December for the gorge, Columbia basin, and Central Oregon. Some great historical perspective there.

 

December here was more or less mediocre of a month. It was colder than 2015 but still could be much colder and snowier. January is the huge month in this part of Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December here was more or less mediocre of a month. It was colder than 2015 but still could be much colder and snowier. January is the huge month in this part of Oregon.

Not true, maybe for Klamath but not other areas

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful sunshine in the south valley today, snow or not I wish our winters had more cold clear weather.

[snow_wizard]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

 

Its not that important. Spring is coming though. That is for sure.

You're a ******* *******.

 

I said the ECMWF showed a highly blocked pattern that would make it cold. The last part of the post I was talking about snow.

 

I'm so glad you got your fill of snow and you can rub in it in everyone's face that didn't get any.

[Jesse]

December here was more or less mediocre of a month. It was colder than 2015 but still could be much colder and snowier. January is the huge month in this part of Oregon.

Your area is very different than the lower Columbia Basin/Blue Mountains.

[Phil]

Do you guys recommend a website to host pictures? Went out and took a few cause its going to be gone soon. I will upload some on here.

Photobucket

[snow_wizard]

I'm not going to take these posts where Tim tries to make it sound like I'm an idiot. I flat out predicted lowland snow on New Years way before it happened. Just as an example..

[snow_wizard]

WTF is wrong with Tim anyway? What a ******* bully.

[Phil]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

 

Its not that important. Spring is coming though. That is for sure.

Karma is very real, and I suspect you're in for quite the dose.

 

Coldest, wettest, drizzliest summer since the LIA upcoming?

[Jesse]

Karma is very real, and I suspect you're in for quite the dose.

 

Coldest, wettest, drizzliest summer since the LIA upcoming?

Don't get my hopes up.

 

Following the 1993 analog into the summer would be AWESOME.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have never seen such a prickkk on any forum i have ever joined and it be allowed.

[Bryant]

You're a ******* *******.

 

I said the ECMWF showed a highly blocked pattern that would make it cold. The last part of the post I was talking about snow.

 

I'm so glad you got your fill of snow and you can rub in it in everyone's face that didn't get any.

His first post back is filled with bullsh*t, typical. Look at it this way... people missed you and wanted you back, no one misses that asshat

[snow_wizard]

I have never seen such a prickkk on any forum i have ever joined and it be allowed.

He's over the line this time.

[Bryant]

I have never seen such a prickkk on any forum i have ever joined and it be allowed.

Indeed

[Jesse]

WTF is wrong with Tim anyway? What a ******* bully.

I agree his post was completely uncalled for.

[dairyd]

I am sort of skeptical.

 

ECMWF looks cool with low snow levels but does not look like an ideal block is returning. Hard to call... I just have a feeling the east will be colder in Feb and Mar and warmer in the west. We are also going to be in Florida in Feb so of course it will be cold there then.

 

EPO is going decidedly negative from neutral just a few days ago.   Maybe the NPAC blowing off some actual steam this week is just what it needs to setup a good block for the next few weeks?

 

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/4indices.png