January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the valley I would say Salem has about 11-12" on the season. Silverton has about 12".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem was able to hit the teens this morning. That was without a snow cover assist, still some snow in the ground near the airport, but mainly in the shade and just not enough to make s difference.

[Jesse]

Salem was able to hit the teens this morning. That was without a snow cover assist, still some snow in the ground near the airport, but mainly in the shade and just not enough to make s difference.

Perhaps even more impressively, PDX was able to hit teens despite staying well-mixed all night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perhaps even more impressively, PDX was able to hit teens despite staying well-mixed all night.

It was 7 in The Dalles and they have 8" of

Snow so I wasn't surprised to an extent. Well mixed with clouds half the night to boot is impressive. Hio and battle ground hitting single digits was hott. Once again the warm up is slower than forecast.

[Jesse]

I'll try. I have been perpetually angry for pretty much the entire month, but it's hard to ignore how profoundly different this is than anything we have had in decades. The thought of not getting a decent snow before this winter is over D**n near makes me ill though.

 

Great to see you back! I really do believe you guys will score before the winter is over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing again this morning at the dalles 9 degrees

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll try. I have been perpetually angry for pretty much the entire month, but it's hard to ignore how profoundly different this is than anything we have had in decades. The thought of not getting a decent snow before this winter is over D**n near makes me ill though.

 

You would have been missed on the forums had you left. You should get something good before the season is over. Many places so far in the PNW have gotten events they hadn't seen in a while. I already consider this a season to remember, and it's still unfolding.

 

Come Spring time maybe consider taking a brief trip to another area of the US, it'll be a refreshment and change of environment. Heck I haven't even done that once myself and I plan to one day. Being in the same place every day, every week can get tiring. Just a sobering thought

 

I've never even left the border of Oregon once, and I know many people around me who have been 20-30 different places even as kids.... There are others on your same boat. 

[TT-SEA]

You would have been missed on the forums had you left. You should get something good before the season is over. Many places so far in the PNW have gotten events they hadn't seen in a while. I already consider this a season to remember, and it's still unfolding.

 

Come Spring time maybe consider taking a brief trip to another area of the US, it'll be a refreshment and change of environment. Heck I haven't even done that once myself and I plan to one day. Being in the same place every day, every week can get tiring. Just a sobering thought

 

I've never even left the border of Oregon once, and I know many people around me who have been 20-30 different places even as kids.... There are others on your same boat. 

 

 

You have never left Oregon in your life??     Is that true?   

 

You live an hour from California.    

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It did hit -54 in the lower 48 already this year. Bonus points if you can figure out the location.

International Falls?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

International Falls?

 

Pete's Sink

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am really impressed with this low level airmass. 11 at The Dalles. 24 PDX, 24 EUG, 25 SLE at 10am...

[Brennan]

Brennan, Bryant, and Bainbridgekid are about to go ice hunting aka svaging for frozen lakes in whatcom county.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HIO hit 4 this morning

 

PDX 19

SLE  19

EUG  21

McM 14

Vanc 8

AST 27

[MossMan]

I take it the models are not showing squat for anything good for the next two weeks?

[Timmy Supercell]

HIO hit 4 this morning

 

PDX 19

SLE  19

EUG  21

McM 14

Vanc 8

AST 27

 

I was only 13 for a low here.

 

 

You have never left Oregon in your life??     Is that true?   

 

You live an hour from California.    

 

We've driven past the border before but regarding actual areas of residence, nope. I've only lived within this state.

 

But my parents were raised in CA and lived down there until 1990. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brennan, Bryant, and Bainbridgekid are about to go ice hunting aka svaging for frozen lakes in whatcom county.

 

Stay safe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I take it the models are not showing squat for anything good for the next two weeks?

 

Nothing overly exciting. The ensembles aren't terrible. Definitely not an extended period of torching...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually a very short period of above normal 850s...Given the first two days of this we'll still be cold at the surface...Things don't look to bad.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Actually a very short period of above normal 850s...Given the first two days of this we'll still be cold at the surface...Things don't look to bad.

 

 

I like seeing more colder members show up in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewpoints in the teens down to Eugene now, 12 at SLE. If it's not to cloudy tonight it could get pretty darn cold.

[Heavy Snow]

You know what they say about a broken clock.

 

Brett has actually been pretty good with his long range forecast considering he goes all the way out to a month. He did great these recent 2-3 weeks. I do hope he's wrong though this time around and the ridge builds up in Alaska and not over us.

[ShawniganLake]

I like seeing more colder members show up in the long range.

[Heavy Snow]

Not too optimistic for an arctic blast unless we get a return of the AK block....Euro Weeklies don't show this occurring but the CFS does. Probably not going to materialize, but cool onshore flow and low snow levels (1000-2000') seem pretty likely.

 

East of the Rockies becomes increasingly favored however as we get into Feb and Mar.

 

Yeah, eventually the Midwest and East Coast will get a long period of Arctic air starting sometime in February lasting into March. We should get at least a piece of that Arctic air as it heads over there. As we have seen these past 3 weeks it only takes a small part of that Arctic air to bring lots of winter weather to the PNW. We have the Gorge at our disposal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 at PDX 28 at SLE and EUG. Looking at 30 to 34 most places today.

[MossMan]

Up to 31 here after a low of 19. I want a pattern reset but at the same time next week is going to be a muddy nightmare at my house with the thawing of the ground with lots of warm rain on top of it. Been just lovely having frozen ground and clean dogs!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I take it the models are not showing squat for anything good for the next two weeks?

 

I wouldn't call it squat, but there's nothing super interesting to track this weekend. The first half of next week looks interesting from a rainfall perspective, and there's solid potential for storminess with perhaps some wet snow mixed in toward the end of next week. I'll enjoy the change in pace, especially if we can get a good storm.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017011412/images_d3/wa_pcp48.84.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

I think snowcover matters more than just totals. The Portland Metro generally had 1-3" snowcover from December 14-18 and will have significant snowcover for a long stretch this month. That already puts this winter into pretty elite territory, another lasting event would seal it.

 

It's amazing how one big storm changes everything. 

 

Of course, for 2016-17 to be discussed up there with the true elite top tier for Portland (1915-16, 1919-20, 1936-37, 1948-49, 1949-50, 1955-56, 1968-69), we'll need to see more.

 

At this point, it's pretty close to the second tier winters like 2008-09, 1992-93, 1979-80, 1970-71, 1959-60, etc.

[umadbro]

Anyone have any balloon soundings?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone have any balloon soundings?

I think the freezing level over Salem is 7100'

[epiceast]

Hawks score a touchdown. More snow is coming guys. Good for 7" at one location or spread out across several locations in Puget sound.

[Phil]

SSW? What could it mean for us?

High latitude blocking, and Arctic blast potential. In -ENSO winters, SSW events often deliver Arctic blasts into the western states, but in almost all cases, they also represented the "grand finale" in that regard, as well.

 

Because SSW events decrease tropical static stability and ignite the MJO, the weak systematic Niña background state will probably be destroyed by this event, but perhaps not before going out with a large bang.

[Phil]

Yeah, eventually the Midwest and East Coast will get a long period of Arctic air starting sometime in February lasting into March. We should get at least a piece of that Arctic air as it heads over there. As we have seen these past 3 weeks it only takes a small part of that Arctic air to bring lots of winter weather to the PNW. We have the Gorge at our disposal.

It's funny. In terms of snowfall, MAR/APR have easily outperformed NOV/DEC here over the last decade, and by substantial margins.

 

Unfortunately, waiting until FEB/MAR is typical for us east coasters, especially in this century. We've simply lost November and December as winter months.

[MossMan]

High latitude blocking, and Arctic blast potential. In -ENSO winters, SSW events often deliver Arctic blasts into the western states, but in almost all cases, they also represented the "grand finale" in that regard, as well.

 

Because SSW events decrease tropical static stability and ignite the MJO, the weak systematic Niña background state will probably be destroyed by this event, but perhaps not before going out with a large bang.

I'm ok with a large grand finale!

[wx_statman]

I think a pretty good indicator of the anemic nature of this airmass is the lack of cold weather on the coast. AST hasn't been colder than 37/27 on any day this week, compared to cold waves like December 2013 (29/13) and December 1998 (26/18), or much bigger cold waves like December 1990 (21/6), February 1989 (19/9), or December 1972 (26/6). 

 

Once again shows how fortunate we were to score a snowstorm here in the Portland area. Without the snowcover, my guess is we would have seen similar temps at PDX to what we saw in mid-December, maybe a minimum spread of 33/22 or something like that. It would have been just another modified event in a winter full of them.

[Phil]

Wowzers..holy 12z EPS. At 360hrs, the ensemble mean for polar 1-10mbemperatures depicts an anomaly of more than +40C, with a few members at +50C.

 

Verbatim, this would be a major SSW, on par with the 2008/09, 1988/89, and 1984/85 events, the three strongest on record..

[Front Ranger]

I think a pretty good indicator of the anemic nature of this airmass is the lack of cold weather on the coast. AST hasn't been colder than 37/27 on any day this week, compared to cold waves like December 2013 (29/13) and December 1998 (26/18), or much bigger cold waves like December 1990 (21/6), February 1989 (19/9), or December 1972 (26/6). 

 

Once again shows how fortunate we were to score a snowstorm here in the Portland area. Without the snowcover, my guess is we would have seen similar temps at PDX to what we saw in mid-December, maybe a minimum spread of 33/22 or something like that. It would have been just another modified event in a winter full of them.

 

Yup. Like I said...one big storm changes everything.

[Deweydog]

I think a pretty good indicator of the anemic nature of this airmass is the lack of cold weather on the coast. AST hasn't been colder than 37/27 on any day this week, compared to cold waves like December 2013 (29/13) and December 1998 (26/18), or much bigger cold waves like December 1990 (21/6), February 1989 (19/9), or December 1972 (26/6).

 

Once again shows how fortunate we were to score a snowstorm here in the Portland area. Without the snowcover, my guess is we would have seen similar temps at PDX to what we saw in mid-December, maybe a minimum spread of 33/22 or something like that. It would have been just another modified event in a winter full of them.

Definitely a perfect storm setup, with what was an almost perfect blend of various aspects Tuesday afternoon/evening to what has been perhaps one of the most impressive "home grown" low level air masses in more than a decade, maybe more than that.

 

I'm just now switching back to an analytical mind about this whole thing. The storm on Tuesday is one that will be and should be dissected heavily. So many meteorological phenomenons occurring at multiple layers of the atmosphere creating frontogenesis over a narrow, snaking corridor to an extent which would be hard to top in any scenario.

 

Still leaves me believing the localized nature of this event suggests it isn't this winter's full crescendo.

[Deweydog]

We took a ride out to Vista House, Multnomah Falls and the likes today.

 

Other worldly.

[Deweydog]

This is @ 10mb..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BCE3DF12-815F-4306-A783-9E6D802110BF_zps93yttvpg.jpeg

Mmmmmmmmmmmm... Toasty.

[Jesse]

Mmmmmmmmmmmm... Toasty.

I really miss those high latitude blocks they used to make at Quizno's.