January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive that even Eugene and Salem scored sub-freezing highs...Would be nice if some of these high clouds moved through before dawn.

[Deweydog]

8 for a high in Pasco.

 

#coolpool

[luminen]

-53F in Meacham. Amazing airmass. 

[Jesse]

-53F in Meacham. Amazing airmass.

That is false.

 

It looks like they hit -12 this morning.

[luminen]

That is false.

 

It looks like they hit -12 this morning.

 

I know. Just innocently poking fun. 

[Front Ranger]

This is going to be the coldest Dec 1 - Jan 15 for Portland in a long, long time.

[BLI snowman]

This is going to be the coldest Dec 1 - Jan 15 for Portland in a long, long time.

 

1978-79.

[Front Ranger]

I think an honest to goodness arctic event and perhaps one more area-wide snowfall would be enough to put this winter into the category of the great ones for the Portland region.

 

I would think PDX would need to reach at least 15" to be considered. I believe that's happened 6 times in the station's history, with several other winters coming close.

 

So maybe a 3-5" snowfall for Portland and a true Arctic outbreak. That would put 2016-17 into top 5, for sure.

[Front Ranger]

1978-79.

 

That's what I was thinking.

[Deweydog]

Cold and breezy at Troutdale.

[Jesse]

I know. Just innocently poking fun.

Well I went to go check.

[epiceast]

I would think PDX would need to reach at least 15" to be considered. I believe that's happened 6 times in the station's history, with several other winters coming close.

 

So maybe a 3-5" snowfall for Portland and a true Arctic outbreak. That would put 2016-17 into top 5, for sure.

Is that really all it takes to put PDX in top 5?

[Jesse]

29/11 at PDX today. Just your run of the mill -21 departure. Very impressive.

 

I will be interested to see how much luck we have rising above 30 the next few days with this low level cold becoming entrenched now and heavy snowcover everywhere still.

[Jesse]

Is that really all it takes to put PDX in top 5?

The last 26 years say a true arctic outbreak is no small feat. Definitely our biggest hurdle going forward if we are rooting for a top 5 winter.

[luminen]

Two pics from Burnaby today. One is the sunrise and the other is a nice snowy street. Not looking forward to the rain erasing all the snow, even if it's dirty snow.   

[Jesse]

28/8 day at VUO. Good stuff.

[bainbridgekid]

Very frozen Lake Goodwin!

Did you check the thickness?

[bainbridgekid]

Two pics from Burnaby today. One is the sunrise and the other is a nice snowy street. Not looking forward to the rain erasing all the snow, even if it's dirty snow.   

What's your elevation there?

 

I got the impression that the waterfront in Vancouver got a lot less than the hills. Has that been true in most of the events this year?

[Bham_Guy]

Frozen Lake Padden

 

[BLI snowman]

I would think PDX would need to reach at least 15" to be considered. I believe that's happened 6 times in the station's history, with several other winters coming close.

 

So maybe a 3-5" snowfall for Portland and a true Arctic outbreak. That would put 2016-17 into top 5, for sure.

 

I think snowcover matters more than just totals. The Portland Metro generally had 1-3" snowcover from December 14-18 and will have significant snowcover for a long stretch this month. That already puts this winter into pretty elite territory, another lasting event would seal it.

[The Swamp]

i hope you guys don't have flooding problems

 

from beauty to beast

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z is definitely not as wet as some previous runs for the middle of next week. Good news. 

 

The heaviest precip is focused further south too... Probably less aggressive WAA and definitely cools down faster. Snow levels dip back down to 1500-2000' by Thursday night. 

[MossMan]

Did you check the thickness?

I used the foot stomp and big rock test...not even a crackle...it was rock solid but I didn't have time to do an actual measurement test.

[GHweatherChris]

Disappointing cold streak once again.

 

Hopefully some snow can accompany the next one where it counts, if there is a next one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some temp departures today:

 

Astoria: -11

EUG   : -13

PDX   : -21   The high of 29 and low of 11 were both record lows.

SLE   : -15

Vanc  : -23

Redm: -22

MedL:  -5

KFalls: -12

PDT: -34  The low of -8 this morning at Pendleton was 37 degrees below average and broke the record low from 1909.

Pasco: -30  Low of 0 tied a record from 1993

Herm: -36 Record low of -12 broke the previous record of -10 from 1909. The low was 40 degrees below average. 

Spk  : -17

Moses Lake: -26

SEA: -11

BLI: -13

OLY: -12

BNO: -26 Record low of -16, broke record of -13 set in 2013. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it says something that places in the lower columbia basin have been breaking cold records from the historic January 1909 outbreak. 

[MossMan]

Anything worth noting on the 00z? Any hope at all for us snow starved sounders?

[ShawniganLake]

Very frozen Lake Goodwin!

Nice.

The south end of Shawnigan lake is pretty well frozen now, but it is more sheltered with several islands. The north end is much larger and deeper, it was starting to freeze up the last couple days, too bad its about to warm up.

[ShawniganLake]

Anything worth noting on the 00z? Any hope at all for us snow starved sounders?

Not much exciting on that one.

[Bryant]

Nothing against PDX/SW Wa, but this place just isn't the same when the majority of posters are 250 miles away. Jim needs to come back, and Seattle needs some redemption.

[TT-SEA]

Good news for those in the Seattle area... you will be spared the pain of watching your extended snowy postcard scene turn to piles of mush and then slowly disappear.

[luminen]

What's your elevation there?

 

I got the impression that the waterfront in Vancouver got a lot less than the hills. Has that been true in most of the events this year?

 

My elevation in North Vancouver is only 140' and we haven't fared well. But just 2 miles to my east on the same road and roughly the same elevation and it's been much snowier. I don't know why. In Burnaby the elevation is 300-500' where I usually am. Places in Burnaby with lower elevations have done just as well as the higher elevations too...e.g. 100' vs. 400'...more or less.

[Timmy Supercell]

Any big snows coming up on models?

 

 

Nothing against PDX/SW Wa, but this place just isn't the same when the majority of posters are 250 miles away. Jim needs to come back, and Seattle needs some redemption.

 

And when posters are 500+ miles to your south? Gosh, what happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewpoints as far south as Salem are now in the mid-teens. If these high clouds clear before sunrise we'll see widespread low to mid teens again. 

[luminen]

YVR's averages for January so far:

 

36/23 0.28"

 

They have recorded only one high above 39 this month, and that was 42. Warmest low is 34F so far. It's all about to go to sh*t though but that's to be expected in this climate.

[Phil]

LR 00z GEFS mean builds the -EPO in late January, very much as anticipated.

 

Even at 384hrs, the signal keeps growing stronger.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4D3BFDA8-EF7B-42DA-9924-A1B68B58940C_zpsjm9gn0pp.gif

[Phil]

Also a beefy SSW on the LR GFS/GEFS. Boooyah.

[Goducks09]

Good news for those in the Seattle area... you will be spared the pain of watching your extended snowy postcard scene turn to piles of mush and then slowly disappear.

 

 

THIS.  It will be a painful 2-3 days.  LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

THIS.  It will be a painful 2-3 days.  LOL

 

In January 2012 I saw 32" of snow disappear in 2 days...If it is a warm heavy rain that 8-12" will be gone by Wednesday morning like it never happened. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I prefer snow to melt quickly overnight with warm heavy rain (Or during the day while I am at work.). If it is going to take a few days, warm sunny skies lessen the pain.