January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.

 

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Just think 155 years ago on 1/17/1862 a 7am temperature of -10 was recorded here. That January featured 45.3" of snow and a mean temperature of 21.3 F (or nearly a -20 F departure from normal). The snow depth reached 24" and didn't fully melt until the end of February (nearly 2 months of continuous snowcover).

[wx_statman]

Yes, some folks who live up there said with confidence they saw -30 on 12/08/2013. We get many people from nearby towns commuting in K-Falls and we were definitely not the coldest here. Unsure if all of them have personal stations though.

 

I believe it. The Poplars Ranch up at Silver Lake hit an official -37. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just think 155 years ago on 1/17/1862 a 7am temperature of -10 was recorded here. That January featured 45.3" of snow and a mean temperature of 21.3 F (or nearly a -20 F departure from normal). The snow depth reached 24" and didn't fully melt until the end of February (nearly 2 months of continuous snowcover).

 

Holy crap. My mean in Dec 2013 was 22.8 and was my 4th coldest December in Klamath Falls. That's impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I saw The Dalles reporting light snow and 15 on the hour. I asked my brother what that was all about, he said they ve picked up about half an inch of snow today.

[BLI snowman]

I saw The Dalles reporting light snow and 15 on the hour. I asked my brother what that was all about, he said they ve picked up about half an inch of snow today.

 

Fog snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fog snow.

 

There was some in Silverton this morning. It is pretty common there because of the produce packing plant, wouldn't be surprised if there is some kind of industry in The Dalles that causes the same localized phenomenon. 

[Heavy Snow]

I think we have a shot at seeing some colder air the last week of December but it might not be cold enough to see snow down to sea level. I think we will have a better chance the first week of January and beyond. It's going to take a while again to get that Blocking in the sweet spot and amplified like what we have witnessed so far in December. Here are the latest thoughts from Meteorologist Brett Anderson for the long range. It looks like he's eyeing the second week of January for us here in the PNW.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_12161742_dec16a.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_12161742_dec16b.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_12161743_dec16cc.png

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-and-long-range-update/70000302

 

Brett Anderson did pretty well during this time period. Here is what his new crayons have to say through about mid February. It doesn't look all that great but this dry crayons could mean cold too.

 

"However, we are seeing increasing signs (high latitude blocking, building western ridge) that the weather pattern across North America will undergo another major change toward the end of this month or early February. This change could bring the cold back into the central and eastern part of the country with increasing chances for snowfall. In the West, this change could lead to more tranquil conditions."

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/winter-far-from-done-despite-major-thaw-for-the-east-later-next-week/70000555

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Brett Anderson did pretty well during this time period. Here is what his new crayons have to say through about mid February. It doesn't look all that great but this dry crayons could mean cold too.

 

"However, we are seeing increasing signs (high latitude blocking, building western ridge) that the weather pattern across North America will undergo another major change toward the end of this month or early February. This change could bring the cold back into the central and eastern part of the country with increasing chances for snowfall. In the West, this change could lead to more tranquil conditions."

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/winter-far-from-done-despite-major-thaw-for-the-east-later-next-week/70000555

 

You know what they say about a broken clock.

[Jesse]

PDX is 29 at 1pm. A degree behind yesterday at this time but today there is more cloud cover around. Right now barring anything ridiculous I would go with a high of 31 there. A nice -20 daily departure.

[Deweydog]

Warning shot!

[Deweydog]

Pretty sexy inversion kicking in. 16 at The Dalles with a serious status deck.

[Jesse]

Pretty sexy inversion kicking in. 16 at The Dalles with a serious status deck.

I wonder if the next few days could actually be progressively colder here at the surface. Likely with milder lows though.

[Blizzard777]

1996 was such a perfect storm. 6 consecutive highs below freezing, followed by 4 consecutive days with 1"+ of rain (at PDX).

 

I'm working with a grad student @PSU who's studying succession ecology on the Muddy River Lahar up on St. Helens. Apparently the most destructive mudflows up there after the 1980 eruption were in Feb 1996. Kinda cool learning that.

 

I was living out at Troutdale during that fun couple weeks of weather. Water pipes froze in garage and gave way the first day of the big rains. What a mess! If I recall, the Sandy River was frozen over then too. We don't want to repeat that flood!!!

[IbrChris]

 

Brett Anderson did pretty well during this time period. Here is what his new crayons have to say through about mid February. It doesn't look all that great but this dry crayons could mean cold too.

 

"However, we are seeing increasing signs (high latitude blocking, building western ridge) that the weather pattern across North America will undergo another major change toward the end of this month or early February. This change could bring the cold back into the central and eastern part of the country with increasing chances for snowfall. In the West, this change could lead to more tranquil conditions."

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/winter-far-from-done-despite-major-thaw-for-the-east-later-next-week/70000555

Not too optimistic for an arctic blast unless we get a return of the AK block....Euro Weeklies don't show this occurring but the CFS does. Probably not going to materialize, but cool onshore flow and low snow levels (1000-2000') seem pretty likely.

 

East of the Rockies becomes increasingly favored however as we get into Feb and Mar.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if the next few days could actually be progressively colder here at the surface. Likely with milder lows though.

Diurnal swings will definitely get smaller, but yeah I wouldn't be surprised if highs tomorrow and Sunday stay pretty close to freezing. Definitely not above at Troutdale.

[Kayla]

PDX is 29 at 1pm. A degree behind yesterday at this time but today there is more cloud cover around. Right now barring anything ridiculous I would go with a high of 31 there. A nice -20 daily departure.

 

Looks like PDX has dropped to ~27º and HIO is holding steady at 23º. Really impressive.

[IbrChris]

Looks like PDX has dropped to ~27º and HIO is holding steady at 23º. Really impressive.

We're essentially developing our own low-level arctic airmass currently as upper levels slowly warm. The same thing happens over the far north of Canada and Alaska...there's almost always a temperature inversion aloft over Barrow, AK for example.

[Jesse]

We're essentially developing our own low-level arctic airmass currently as upper levels slowly warm. The same thing happens over the far north of Canada and Alaska...there's almost always a temperature inversion aloft over Barrow, AK for example.

That is why I have always been irked by the term "fake cold". Low level cold is a hallmark of many high latitude climates.

[IbrChris]

That is why I have always been irked by the term "fake cold". Low level cold is a hallmark of many high latitude climates.

Yes, it's simple: If incoming energy < outgoing energy the temperature cools in a closed system (no advection). Today we have a lot of snowcover which not only radiates energy very efficiently but also serves to reflect a lot of incoming energy back into space. Of course it absorbs some...the temperature still rises during the day until around 2:30-3:30 pm when radiative equilibrium is briefly achieved then outgoing surpasses incoming.

[IbrChris]

If the top of the inversion is below about 10,000'/700 mb people seem to call it "fake cold" I guess because some higher elevation locations are warmer than the valleys. Most arctic airmasses however aren't deeper than 10,000' and and I'd say many aren't even deep enough to get over the Continental Divide in Montana which is generally 6,000-8,000'

So by definition almost any cold airmass west of the Rockies, save the occasional synoptically-driven arctic boundary, is "fake cold" or a low-level arctic airmass with an inversion below the height of some mountain summits. The definition of "fake cold" seems arbitrary and non-descriptive.

[Jesse]

Diurnal swings will definitely get smaller, but yeah I wouldn't be surprised if highs tomorrow and Sunday stay pretty close to freezing. Definitely not above at Troutdale.

I'm beginning to feel more strongly about precip starting out as sleet or ZR next week. Right now it is still looking like a relatively quick transistion though.

[Jesse]

PDX down to 27.

[Phil]

For some reason I can't shake the feeling that we will get something in that period too. Could just be subconcious wishcasting I guess. But there is that kind of vibe to this winter that we will get hit again. As I said the other day, the 500mb pattern has teased us a lot so far, but it has yet to fully unload...

First week of February should feature another big -EPO, so that's the timeframe I'm watching. Thereafter I suspect it'll morph into more of a classic -AO regime as the stratospheric influence begins to take over the polar circulation(s).

[Jesse]

First week of February should feature another big -EPO, so that's the timeframe I'm watching. Thereafter I suspect it'll morph into more of a classic -AO regime as the stratospheric influence begins to take over the polar circulation(s).

I don't know enough to feel too confident about what a classic -AO regime means, but I would imagine lots of cold air to go around the mid latitudes, but maybe more progressive?

[Jesse]

Now, I'm only a volunteer lab assistant for 4 hours a week.    Its something I decided to do just for the sake of having relevant experience in Physical Geography. 

 

The grad student I'm helping is studying tree rings up there. Comparing tree rings from post-1980 growth with nearby undisturbed forest. I know the goal of his masters thesis is to figure out how and in what order different tree species colonize an area (primary succession). The Muddy River Lahar has something like 7-8 different tree species that have crept back in over the last 30+ years. Mt. St Helens provides what's probably the best location in the lower 48 to study this sort of thing. 

 

Personally, I'm just taking core samples and scanning them into a computer program which marks the individual tree rings. Then I go through and QC everything, because the digital ID'ing is far from perfect. Exciting stuff. 

 

Sounds pretty amazing. Definitely stuff I am really interested in.

[Phil]

I don't know enough to feel too confident about what a classic -AO regime means, but I would imagine lots of cold air to go around the mid latitudes, but maybe more progressive?

Yeah, basically a big block over the Arctic, cold temperatures over most of the lower 48 and mid-latitudes in general.

 

As far as the US is concerned, exactly where the cold is centered under a -AO will usually depend on the nature of the NPAC/tropical influence. That's still unknown after the first week in February, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Just did an ODOT cam tour... awesome to see snow still hanging on the trees around Portland.     What a spectacular set up down there.

[FroYoBro]

PDX is at 26 at 3 pm. Pretty badass. 

[Jesse]

PDX is at 26 at 3 pm. Pretty badass.

Yeah, I was thinking that is probably their coldest 3pm temp in a long time without any overrunning going on.

[MossMan]

Looks like I'm topping out at 31 again today. Back to 30 under cloudy skies.

[Jesse]

Just did an ODOT cam tour... awesome to see snow still hanging on the trees around Portland. What a spectacular set up down there.

The staying power of this snow has been incredible. Shows what even a moderately cold and dry airmass can do after a snowfall.

[wx_statman]

I was living out at Troutdale during that fun couple weeks of weather. Water pipes froze in garage and gave way the first day of the big rains. What a mess! If I recall, the Sandy River was frozen over then too. We don't want to repeat that flood!!!

 

That flood was a big deal. I remember the official forecasts called for the Willamette to top the seawall by 2-3 inches and flood the lower part of downtown. It just fell short though. 

[wx_statman]

We're essentially developing our own low-level arctic airmass currently as upper levels slowly warm. The same thing happens over the far north of Canada and Alaska...there's almost always a temperature inversion aloft over Barrow, AK for example.

 

I wonder if California people are dreaming of a "Portland" outbreak coming southward?

[wx_statman]

Sounds pretty amazing. Definitely stuff I am really interested in.

 

I would just keep your eyes open for stuff like this when you're taking classes. I was sitting in class last fall when the professor casually dropped that one of his grad students is looking for assistants. 

[Tyler Mode]

Only made it to 27.5 today with a lot of high clouds.  Also, an inversion is developing as areas at 1,500' did make it to freezing. 

 

Low this morning was 10.1, could have been much colder but I had fog a lot of the night, then high clouds.

 

Here are several pictures from this afternoon showing the extent of the snow remaining.  About 4" or so of the 8" that fell.

[Tyler Mode]

Here are pictures from the hoar frost this morning.

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Just did an ODOT cam tour... awesome to see snow still hanging on the trees around Portland.     What a spectacular set up down there.

 

It's been lovely.

 

Had a 29/7 day here today, still have 9-10" in untouched areas.

[Goducks09]

Took another walk around parts of Downtown, the Waterfront and South Waterfront area today.  The overcast skies add a whole other layer/dynamic to this.  With a brisk breeze from the east, overcast skies, 8 inches of snow everywhere, and bitter temperatures - it doesn't feel like Portland at all.  It feels positively arctic.   It really reminds me of being a kid in the 90's and the cold blasts we had back then, just in awe of mother nature's beauty.  It's been a real treat having this stuff hang around so long, and I feel pretty lucky to have lived through this.  If you can't tell: I'M ENJOYING THIS!!!

[MossMan]

Very frozen Lake Goodwin!

[Timmy Supercell]

Hillsboro was 24 today, 2 degrees cooler than Klamath Falls!