January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

Not very often you see a high of 45 at SEA and 30 at PDX on the same day.

[snow_wizard]

Welcome back

I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

[MossMan]

Not very often you see a high of 45 at SEA and 30 at PDX on the same day.

Quite sad really.

[Jesse]

Not very often you see a high of 45 at SEA and 30 at PDX on the same day.

 

January 6th and 7th, 1979 are good analogs.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1979/1/14/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Portland%20International&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98661&reqdb.magic=5&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1979/1/14/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Portland%20International&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98661&reqdb.magic=5&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

[snow_wizard]

Not very often you see a high of 45 at SEA and 30 at PDX on the same day.

The cold is getting very shallow to say the least. Portland and the Willamette Valley can be amazing with snow on the ground and weak offshore flow.

[Phil]

I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

Dude, stay. This place is boring without you.

[Jesse]

I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

 

Just keep away from the valium. I didn't like hearing that.

[snow_wizard]

Quite sad really.

Well...it's not like it hasn't been cold here to. I have no gripe about that.

[Jesse]

Well...it's not like it hasn't been cold here to. I have no gripe about that.

 

It's been an old school pattern. I know you have more perspective to appreciate that than many. Happ posted a great chart of the water year to date in California on their sub-thread and it really underscores the classic suppressed jet we have seen this winter.

 

It is pure bad luck that your area hasn't scored yet, and I really feel for you. Luckily, with the repeating theme we have been seeing since early December, I would say your chances for something significant over the next four weeks are about as elevated as they can be looking that far out.

[snow_wizard]

Just keep away from the valium. I didn't like hearing that.

It's actually Klonopin. Just need it once in a while.

 

It has gotten to the point I won't be able to enjoy a snow event until it's actually going and the radar shows it continuing. I just get so worked up knowing it will find some way to screw us.

[Deweydog]

I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

Gotta stay within the bounds of your climate.

 

Storms like Tuesday's are gifts, not an inevitability in our little part of the world. That is unless you pick your spot very carefully.

 

It's sad to hear you going through such anguish over it, no one deserves that. But there are some things you can do analytically to keep expectations in check. Harder the fall...

[snow_wizard]

It's been an old school pattern. I know you have more perspective to appreciate that than many. Happ posted a great chart of the water year to date in California on their sub-thread and it really underscores the classic suppressed jet we have seen this winter.

 

It is pure bad luck that your area hasn't scored yet, and I really feel for you. Luckily, with the repeating theme we have been seeing since early December, I would say your chances for something significant over the next four weeks are about as elevated as they can be looking that far out.

I just hope all of the cold and blocking this winter is for real and we see it somewhat regularly like we used to. Maybe even have 2 or 3 good winters in a row sometimes. Just unreal to look at Januaries from 1969 and before compared to recent years. Cold waves as deep or deeper than this used to happen twice and sometimes three times a decade in the month of January.

 

If dropping solar activity is the cause we should be golden.

[snow_wizard]

Gotta stay within the bounds of your climate.

 

Storms like Tuesday's are gifts, not an inevitability in our little part of the world. That is unless you pick your spot very carefully.

 

It's sad to hear you going through such anguish over it, no one deserves that. But there are some things you can do analytically to keep expectations in check. Harder the fall...

On the other hand it's not really common to have this much cold and not score at least one decent snowfall.

[BLI snowman]

I have been in the same mode. Enjoy and take in rather than overthink. Once the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of the setup Tuesday night though. The perfect timing, the persistent deformation zone, the quasi-stationary "cold and dry meets cool and wet" battle ground, the convective nature of the event, the explosive frontogenesis, the thundersnow, so many aspects to wrap one's head around. It was pure winter weather porn.

 

Definitely a top 5 snow event in my lifetime. 

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah, and it happens quite frequently too. I remember back in February 2014, models had 3-6" forecasted here as the snow was falling. We ended up getting 18" over the next 8hrs. Then 12hrs later, the follow-up wave, modeled to dump another foot, ended up dropping 2". Boom, then bust.

that was a strange snow storm for us as many of us had a foot+ from a south west wind flow direction verses our normal northeast then northwest wind flow.thanks to the air preceeding the storm was so cold.may have been one of my favorites events just from the rarity of it.

[BLI snowman]

Great post. Its amazing to me that in 2017 forecasts can still miss a 12" snowstorm at zero hours. 

 

RPM FTW

[Deweydog]

On the other hand it's not really common to have this much cold and not score at least one decent snowfall.

True, but it's situational. Going back to New Year's it was pretty clear your expectations were out of sync with reality with what was fairly underwhelming event. Without unrealistic expectations, I highly doubt your depression episodes would be was pronounced.

[HighlandExperience]

I just hope all of the cold and blocking this winter is for real and we see it somewhat regularly like we used to. Maybe even have 2 or 3 good winters in a row sometimes. Just unreal to look at Januaries from 1969 and before compared to recent years. Cold waves as deep or deeper than this used to happen twice and sometimes three times a decade in the month of January.

 

If dropping solar activity is the cause we should be golden.

 

Let's hope this lack of sunspots is really having a good impact on our climate. That could be our saving grace right now. 

[Deweydog]

Definitely a top 5 snow event in my lifetime.

It'll be hard to rank. We ended up with eight inches here, which is less than during the 2008 and 2014 events, but the sunny weather following it up takes it to another level.

[MossMan]

Is it really too much to ask for a Seahawks win and a large western Wa snowstorm?

Guess so.

[TT-SEA]

True, but it's situational. Going back to New Year's it was pretty clear your expectations were out of sync with reality with what was fairly underwhelming event. Without unrealistic expectations, I highly doubt your depression episodes would be was pronounced.

Indeed.

[wx_statman]

RPM FTW

 

I'm guessing it did well?

 

Its funny going back and reading what was on people's minds before the snow started. This was Mark Nelsen in his 11:30am update Tuesday:

 

• During the late evening (after 8pm), those light rain showers turn to light snow showers
• Some of our models are wetter, which would be a real snowstorm late tonight and Wednesday AM.  2-5″ more widespread, I think that’s less likely

[BLI snowman]

It'll be hard to rank. We ended up with eight inches here, which is less than during the 2008 and 2014 events, but the sunny weather following it up takes it to another level.

 

2008 and this are probably #1 and 2 for me right now. 

 

The thought of getting a major snowstorm going into a cold, clear airmass never even struck me as a realistic possibility after so many years of struggling to get an inch in that situation.

[BLI snowman]

 

I'm guessing it did well?

 

Its funny going back and reading what was on people's minds before the snow started. This was Mark Nelsen in his 11:30am update Tuesday:

 

• During the late evening (after 8pm), those light rain showers turn to light snow showers
• Some of our models are wetter, which would be a real snowstorm late tonight and Wednesday AM.  2-5″ more widespread, I think that’s less likely

 

 

LOL, I'll try to dig up what its 18z run showed from Tuesday afternoon.

[wx_statman]

LOL, I'll try to dig up what its 18z run showed from Tuesday afternoon.

 

Oh wait, you meant the other way. Haha. 

[snow_wizard]

2008 and this are probably #1 and 2 for me right now. 

 

The thought of getting a major snowstorm going into a cold, clear airmass never even struck me as a realistic possibility after so many years of struggling to get an inch in that situation.

That is indeed the magic combo. One thing I do like about this winter is how old school it has been. Even the CPC analogs have mostly been old on this. Nice to see.

 

As you and I both know the snowfall battle between Portland and Seattle has and will continue to be a major factor around here except in the really big winters where everyone scores.

[Deweydog]

2008 and this are probably #1 and 2 for me right now.

 

The thought of getting a major snowstorm going into a cold, clear airmass never even struck me as a realistic possibility after so many years of struggling to get an inch in that situation.

Yeah, this one probably would leap 2008 if it had been slightly more prolonged and a bit colder during the event.

[MossMan]

Yeah, this one probably would leap 2008 if it had been slightly more prolonged and a bit colder during the event.

So funny what a few miles makes...2008 I had 34" of snow and a low of zero and that event lasted a good 3 weeks. No snow at all for this event and a low of 14. This doesn't even register anywhere close to 2008 up here.

[BLI snowman]

That is indeed the magic combo. One thing I do like about this winter is how old school it has been. Even the CPC analogs have mostly been old on this. Nice to see.

 

As you and I both know the snowfall battle between Portland and Seattle has and will continue to be a major factor around here except in the really big winters where everyone scores.

 

It'd be nice to see one event this winter where both cities score, or at least a pattern like February 1990 where Portland gets nailed with one storm and Seattle gets nailed with another. The two are on pretty equal terms historically with regards to snowfall in the urban cores, so I expect things will even out again at some point in the not too distant future.

[snow_wizard]

True, but it's situational. Going back to New Year's it was pretty clear your expectations were out of sync with reality with what was fairly underwhelming event. Without unrealistic expectations, I highly doubt your depression episodes would be was pronounced.

I was probably a bit desperate on that one, although SEA did manage to pick up 3 inches with it. That zone could have just as easily been down here. All in all less extensive than I had hoped though.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, this one probably would leap 2008 if it had been slightly more prolonged and a bit colder during the event.

 

At the same time though I kinda dug the heavier, wetter snowfall rates that we had during this storm and I really enjoyed the fact that we avoided any of the ZR funny business that plagued the 2008 event. It's a close call.

[Deweydog]

So funny what a few miles makes...2008 I had 34" of snow and a low of zero and that event lasted a good 3 weeks. No snow at all for this event and a low of 14. This doesn't even register anywhere close to 2008 up here.

Definitely. We rolled a bunch of sevens in a row with this one. 2008 was obviously much more of a shotgun blast.

[wx_statman]

 

At the same time though I kinda dug the heavier, wetter snowfall rates that we had during this storm and I really enjoyed the fact that we avoided any of the ZR funny business that plagued the 2008 event. It's a close call.

 

Its very close. I'm tempted to go with December 2008, just because the south Metro where I lived at the time got 20" in 10 days. That's special in a completely different way from getting a well-placed snowband for one night. We also squeezed in two sunny days with snowcover (15th and 16th) to compete a little better with this week. 

[Deweydog]

I was probably a bit desperate on that one, although SEA did manage to pick up 3 inches with it. That zone could have just as easily been down here. All in all less extensive than I had hoped though.

You definitely had a chance, but it was becoming clear the setup didn't have much teeth to it.

[snow_wizard]

At the same time though I kinda dug the heavier, wetter snowfall rates that we had during this storm and I really enjoyed the fact that we avoided any of the ZR funny business that plagued the 2008 event. It's a close call.

Looking from the outside I would clearly take this over Dec 2008. Breaking a record Jan 1950 is worth a few points right off the bat. So many clear and cold days after the snow and the fact you had two separate snow events during this event. And of course bonus points for being January.

[BLI snowman]

Its very close. I'm tempted to go with December 2008, just because the south Metro where I lived at the time got 20" in 10 days. That's special in a completely different way from getting a well-placed snowband for one night. We also squeezed in two sunny days with snowcover (15th and 16th) to compete a little better with this week. 

 

No such luck up here of course. The timing of it was perfect though, watching it dump snow on Christmas morning on top of the foot that's already on the ground is always going to be difficult to top.

[Deweydog]

Looking from the outside I would clearly take this over Dec 2008. Breaking a record Jan 1950 is worth a few points right off the bat. So many clear and cold days after the snow and the fact you had two separate snow events during this event. And of course bonus points for being January.

I'd take snow at Christmas over January snow hands down.

[Timmy]

Oh wait, you meant the other way. Haha.

The colored contour map showed nothing for pdx and about 1-2" above 1000'. Txt output on that 18z day of showed maybe .5" at pdx. It was more bullish 3 days out though. The nam para did well for my location, but it has been bullish all winter so a broken clock...

[wx_statman]

The colored contour map showed nothing for pdx and about 1-2" above 1000'. Txt output on that 18z day of showed maybe .5" at pdx. It was more bullish 3 days out though. The nam para did well for my location, but it has been bullish all winter so a broken clock...

 

Yeah, that's bad!

[Phil]

that was a strange snow storm for us as many of us had a foot+ from a south west wind flow direction verses our normal northeast then northwest wind flow.thanks to the air preceeding the storm was so cold.may have been one of my favorites events just from the rarity of it.

Same, some of the most insane rates I've ever seen during the peak hours that night, though that SE flow was a double edged sword as we lost the mid-levels right after sunrise. Radar registered one of those bands at like 70dbz, which I think is the one that dumped that 6"/hr stuff. The flip to sleet/zr thereafter was depressing, though.