January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Hawks score a touchdown. More snow is coming guys. Good for 7" at one location or spread out across several locations in Puget sound.

Hope so. Models don't show squat for 2 weeks, that puts us in early Feb. As you know the window closes pretty quick once Feb hits.

[Deweydog]

I really miss those high latitude blocks they used to make at Quizno's.

Generally 10mb is more of a Jimmy John's kind of neighborhood. All cold.

[Front Ranger]

Hope so. Models don't show squat for 2 weeks, that puts us in early Feb. As you know the window closes pretty quick once Feb hits.

 

Still plenty of time for a Feb/Mar 1989 redux.

[Deweydog]

Still plenty of time for a Feb/Mar 1989 redux.

I really think the potential for late this month/early next month is sky high.

[Phil]

18z GFS much deeper with the mass displacement cycle, but much slower as a result. So..transition to -EPO will be delayed this run, with more -NAO initially.

 

So, fits with the idea that the first week of February is the one to watch for a potential -EPO.

[Front Ranger]

I really think the potential for late this month/early next month is sky high.

 

Potential has been high all winter - delivered for some, but not for others so far. I agree that potential remains for more widespread fun.

[Deweydog]

Potential has been high all winter - delivered for some, but not for others so far. I agree that potential remains for more widespread fun.

Past potential is much different from future potential. Ask King County residents about that.

[Jesse]

I think a pretty good indicator of the anemic nature of this airmass is the lack of cold weather on the coast. AST hasn't been colder than 37/27 on any day this week, compared to cold waves like December 2013 (29/13) and December 1998 (26/18), or much bigger cold waves like December 1990 (21/6), February 1989 (19/9), or December 1972 (26/6).

 

Once again shows how fortunate we were to score a snowstorm here in the Portland area. Without the snowcover, my guess is we would have seen similar temps at PDX to what we saw in mid-December, maybe a minimum spread of 33/22 or something like that. It would have been just another modified event in a winter full of them.

I think PDX could have still scored upper teens even without heavy snow cover, given the favorable timing of gradients dying off with a dry airmass in place and such, but I get the gist of what you are saying.

 

I imagine a lot of our "great" winters in the past also featured some localized perfect storm type setups such as this. But I agree that a regional event with upper level support would truly validate this winter's status. Hope we get one! But even if not I am pretty satisfied having lived through the coldest December 1st-January 15th period in the metro area of my lifetime, even if some of it was localized luck. And then of course the Tuesday night storm even by itself was just out of this world.

[Jesse]

I really think the potential for late this month/early next month is sky high.

Agreed here. It just has that feeling. Hope it means something.

[Front Ranger]

Past potential is much different from future potential. Ask King County residents about that.

 

Pretty much echoing what I just said.

[Front Ranger]

I think PDX could have still scored upper teens even without heavy snow cover, given the favorable timing of gradients dying off with a dry airmass in place and such, but I get the gist of what you are saying.

 

I imagine a lot of our "great" winters in the past also featured some localized perfect storm type setups such as this. But I agree that a regional event with upper level support would truly validate this winter's status. Hope we get one! But even if not I am pretty satisfied having lived through the coldest December 1st-January 15th period in the metro area of my lifetime, even if some of it was localized luck. And then of course the Tuesday night storm even by itself was just out of this world.

 

Yeah, it's not like all the cold in past winters was due to great upper level dynamics. Many of the best, more widespread events certainly were, of course.

[Jesse]

Definitely a perfect storm setup, with what was an almost perfect blend of various aspects Tuesday afternoon/evening to what has been perhaps one of the most impressive "home grown" low level air masses in more than a decade, maybe more than that.

 

I'm just now switching back to an analytical mind about this whole thing. The storm on Tuesday is one that will be and should be dissected heavily. So many meteorological phenomenons occurring at multiple layers of the atmosphere creating frontogenesis over a narrow, snaking corridor to an extent which would be hard to top in any scenario.

 

Still leaves me believing the localized nature of this event suggests it isn't this winter's full crescendo.

 

I have been in the same mode. Enjoy and take in rather than overthink. Once the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of the setup Tuesday night though. The perfect timing, the persistent deformation zone, the quasi-stationary "cold and dry meets cool and wet" battle ground, the convective nature of the event, the explosive frontogenesis, the thundersnow, so many aspects to wrap one's head around. It was pure winter weather porn.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, it's not like all the cold in past winters was due to great upper level dynamics. Many of the best, more widespread events certainly were, of course.

This six week or so stretch has had nothing colder than about -10c at 850mb and/or thicknesses lower than about 515dm here. Given the outcome from an anomaly perspective, I'd have to wonder if the upper level disparity has ever been as pronounced.

[Phil]

The 18z GFS is the strongest yet with our SSW. Without a PV, the tropically forced wavebreaking will be virtually unobstructed.

[The Swamp]

In conjunction with Jim not posting and checking out, I too will be checking out for a while.

 

I live in the swamp and am sick and damned tired of this site having been taken over by the circle jerk of Oregon posters gloating over their epic event.

 

I'm not happy for them.  I'm very selfish to be honest and I only care about what is in my back yard.

 

No snowperson has been built here in the swamp.

 

Our chances have now come and gone. It's over. 

 

Swampland Jon out!

[wx_statman]

Definitely a perfect storm setup, with what was an almost perfect blend of various aspects Tuesday afternoon/evening to what has been perhaps one of the most impressive "home grown" low level air masses in more than a decade, maybe more than that.

 

I'm just now switching back to an analytical mind about this whole thing. The storm on Tuesday is one that will be and should be dissected heavily. So many meteorological phenomenons occurring at multiple layers of the atmosphere creating frontogenesis over a narrow, snaking corridor to an extent which would be hard to top in any scenario.

 

Still leaves me believing the localized nature of this event suggests it isn't this winter's full crescendo.

 

Great post. Its amazing to me that in 2017 forecasts can still miss a 12" snowstorm at zero hours. 

[snow_wizard]

Lake Meridian is totally frozen over now and walkable in some places.  The first time I've seen more than just a tiny fraction of the lake ice covered since I've lived here.  Only one freezing max temp so far this season and only 2 lows below 20.  On the other hand 25 sub 40 max temps and many lows below 25.  This just goes to illustrate why I have always championed January cold waves.  Even a low tier one like this can really do a number.   No doubt this cold wave is in the minority for being major enough to freeze a major lake, but leave us with almost no snow.  I really hope this is the low solar coming home to roost.  If so these events could be a lot more common in coming winters.  No question the snow situation has to even out over time.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is the strongest yet with our SSW. Without a PV, the tropically forced wavebreaking will be virtually unobstructed.

 

Nice to see this run put the blocking back over Alaska.  Looking at the past history of this type of winter another cold period is reasonably likely.

[wx_statman]

I think PDX could have still scored upper teens even without heavy snow cover, given the favorable timing of gradients dying off with a dry airmass in place and such, but I get the gist of what you are saying.

 

I imagine a lot of our "great" winters in the past also featured some localized perfect storm type setups such as this. But I agree that a regional event with upper level support would truly validate this winter's status. Hope we get one! But even if not I am pretty satisfied having lived through the coldest December 1st-January 15th period in the metro area of my lifetime, even if some of it was localized luck. And then of course the Tuesday night storm even by itself was just out of this world.

 

You're probably right about yesterday morning. PDX might have managed upper 10's like they did the previous week. Would have been close. 

[Front Ranger]

Great post. Its amazing to me that in 2017 forecasts can still miss a 12" snowstorm at zero hours. 

 

Never underestimate Portland NWS ineptitude. 

 

That big storm was the ONLY possible snow event they didn't jump on all winter, until it was already too late.

[wx_statman]

This six week or so stretch has had nothing colder than about -10c at 850mb and/or thicknesses lower than about 515dm here. Given the outcome from an anomaly perspective, I'd have to wonder if the upper level disparity has ever been as pronounced.

 

I don't think in the PDX era anyway. We're trailing only 1978-79 for Dec 1 - Jan 15 anomalies, and that stretch had the big New Years cold wave. 

[Front Ranger]

In conjunction with Jim not posting and checking out, I too will be checking out for a while.

 

I live in the swamp and am sick and damned tired of this site having been taken over by the circle jerk of Oregon posters gloating over their epic event.

 

I'm not happy for them.  I'm very selfish to be honest and I only care about what is in my back yard.

 

No snowperson has been built here in the swamp.

 

Our chances have now come and gone. It's over. 

 

Swampland Jon out!

 

Sorry you feel that way.

 

See you after the next great model run.

[Phil]

Great post. Its amazing to me that in 2017 forecasts can still miss a 12" snowstorm at zero hours.

Yeah, and it happens quite frequently too. I remember back in February 2014, models had 3-6" forecasted here as the snow was falling. We ended up getting 18" over the next 8hrs. Then 12hrs later, the follow-up wave, modeled to dump another foot, ended up dropping 2". Boom, then bust.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never underestimate Portland NWS ineptitude.

 

That big storm was the ONLY possible snow event they didn't jump on all winter, until it was already too late.

I think it was the 18z NAM that showed less than 1" of snow in SE Portland, this was literally 6 hours before the event.

[Deweydog]

I think it was the 18z NAM that showed less than 1" of snow in SE Portland, this was literally 6 hours before the event.

Yeah, can't blame the NWS entirely. They've been pathetic this winter, but there was quite a bit of support for a bearish forecast even a few hours out. The models were clearly overwhelmed by that setup.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think in the PDX era anyway. We're trailing only 1978-79 for Dec 1 - Jan 15 anomalies, and that stretch had the big New Years cold wave. 

 

Yeah, definitely been a unique winter.

 

1948-49 was probably the closest in that it didn't have anything on the level of the late Dec 1978/Jan 1979 cold wave, and a lot of moderate cold to this point. 

[James Jones]

Hope so. Models don't show squat for 2 weeks, that puts us in early Feb. As you know the window closes pretty quick once Feb hits.

 

This has been true in recent history, but if you go back before the airport era February was perfectly capable of producing extended stretches of very cold and/or snowy weather. In the late 19th century alone Februaries 1882, 1883, 1884, 1887, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, and 1899 all produced some significant cold or snow.

 

Normally I would agree with you, but this winter has been firmly oldschool so I think there's an elevated chance of some major winter weather this February.

[Phil]

Nice to see this run put the blocking back over Alaska. Looking at the past history of this type of winter another cold period is reasonably likely.

There will almost certainly be another -EPO stretch, probably centered during the first week of February. That's the window I'm watching for you guys..could be very impressive.

 

Then I think the -AO and/or -NAO takes over during the middle of February for other reasons, and the cold shifts eastward.

[wx_statman]

Never underestimate Portland NWS ineptitude. 

 

That big storm was the ONLY possible snow event they didn't jump on all winter, until it was already too late.

 

They've been pretty bad this winter. Lots of curveballs thrown their way.

[snow_wizard]

In conjunction with Jim not posting and checking out, I too will be checking out for a while.

 

I live in the swamp and am sick and damned tired of this site having been taken over by the circle jerk of Oregon posters gloating over their epic event.

 

I'm not happy for them.  I'm very selfish to be honest and I only care about what is in my back yard.

 

No snowperson has been built here in the swamp.

 

Our chances have now come and gone. It's over. 

 

Swampland Jon out!

 

Love your honesty.  Thankfully I'm just about angered out over this.  I have had days where I have literally not gone five minutes without thinking about how bad our luck has been.  I think the thing that has really screwed us is the Arctic fronts have all been slow to force the cold air over us.  In almost EVERY CASE WHERE WE HAD A GOOD SHOT THE COLD JUST DIDN'T ARRIVE IN TIME for the precip to be snow.  The day I was putting up my Christmas lights in pouring down 38 degree rain comes to mind.  We do well when the Arctic air screams in like it did in November 2010.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, can't blame the NWS entirely. They've been pathetic this winter, but there was quite a bit of support for a bearish forecast even a few hours out. The models were clearly overwhelmed by that setup.

 

True, but people on here had a sense for greater potential, and that it was much greater than pretty much any previous setup this winter.

 

The fact that the NWS had overhyped many events leading up to it almost certainly played a role in underhyping what turned out to be a huge event.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, and it happens quite frequently too. I remember back in February 2014, models had 3-6" forecasted here as the snow was falling. We ended up getting 18" over the next 8hrs. Then 12hrs later, the follow-up wave, modeled to dump another foot, ended up dropping 2". Boom, then bust.

 

It happens all the time with rain too.  People just notice way more when it's snow.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, definitely been a unique winter. 1948-49 was probably the closest in that it didn't have anything on the level of the late Dec 1978/Jan 1979 cold wave, and a lot of moderate cold to this point. 

 

That's not a bad analog. That winter did finally deliver legitimate top tier cold around 1/25 or so. 

[snow_wizard]

True, but people on here had a sense for greater potential, and that it was much greater than pretty much any previous setup this winter.

 

The fact that the NWS had overhyped many events leading up to it almost certainly played a role in underhyping what turned out to be a huge event.

 

Then the Seattle NWS was high on almost every event.  Just impossible to nail it down here.

[wx_statman]

It happens all the time with rain too.  People just notice way more when it's snow.

 

Good point. We wouldn't have had nearly the same excitement over an extra .50" of rain at night. 

[Jesse]

There will almost certainly be another -EPO stretch, probably centered during the first week of February. That's the window I'm watching for you guys..could be very impressive.

 

Then I think the -AO and/or -NAO takes over during the middle of February for other reasons, and the cold shifts eastward.

 

Hopefully your slow bias is still in play. I would prefer things getting started in late January just to put the cherry on top of this cold month.

[Deweydog]

True, but people on here had a sense for greater potential, and that it was much greater than pretty much any previous setup this winter.

 

The fact that the NWS had overhyped many events leading up to it almost certainly played a role in underhyping what turned out to be a huge event.

They were most certainly punch drunk from another bust last Saturday, setting the drama going into Tuesday night. The models just helped them along with their own ineptitude.

[Phil]

Hopefully your slow bias is still in play. I would prefer things getting started in late January just to put the cherry on top of this cold month.

Haha, that's a definite possibility. I've been horrible with intraseasonal/medium term timing all winter.

[crf450ish]

I'll try. I have been perpetually angry for pretty much the entire month, but it's hard to ignore how profoundly different this is than anything we have had in decades. The thought of not getting a decent snow before this winter is over D**n near makes me ill though.

Welcome back

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX may score another high in the upper 20s today. 

 

This fake cold has been great at preserving our fake snow. Or maybe the other way around.