January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

My elevation in North Vancouver is only 140' and we haven't fared well. But just 2 miles to my east on the same road and roughly the same elevation and it's been much snowier. I don't know why. In Burnaby the elevation is 300-500' where I usually am. Places in Burnaby with lower elevations have done just as well as the higher elevations too...e.g. 100' vs. 400'...more or less.

 

Yeah, I noticed that when I was over there around Christmas. In Deep Cove the snow had melted off the trees and was fairly patchy on the ground even at higher elevations (the many tall trees certainly didn't help with snow retention), while the north end of Burnaby immediately to the south seemed to have more snow cover right down to sea level.

[Deweydog]

Looks like some clearing should be occurring over the next few hours, possibly followed by some filtered sunshine tomorrow amidst a sharpening inversion and gorge gradients of 10+mb. Talk about a perfect storm...

[Jesse]

Looks like some clearing should be occurring over the next few hours, possibly followed by some filtered sunshine tomorrow amidst a sharpening inversion and gorge gradients of 10+mb. Talk about a perfect storm...

Highs in the mid-20s tomorrow?

[Blizzard777]

That flood was a big deal. I remember the official forecasts called for the Willamette to top the seawall by 2-3 inches and flood the lower part of downtown. It just fell short though.

 

 

It came very close indeed. That was really something to see. We also found out how frail our road system was. I had traveled to Seattle after getting the frozen water pipe fixed at the house and got trapped up there when i-5 got shut down for days because of that landslide. I needed to get back to work in Portland so I drove down to the coast and took 101 down into Oregon then 26 back into town. This journey took forever because roads we're missing and lanes had been eaten away here and there. Could not believe how quickly a storm could chew us up and cause such a headache! I was glad to be home though. Scary memories

[Deweydog]

Highs in the mid-20s tomorrow?

Wouldn't entirely shock me. PDX won't decouple fully but they're also probably gonna have the wind all day tomorrow. Outflow is very impressively cold and dew points keep edging down.

[Jesse]

Wouldn't entirely shock me. PDX won't decouple fully but they're also probably gonna have the wind all day tomorrow. Outflow is very impressively cold and dew points keep edging down.

We are definitely in one of those self-perpetuating setups for cold at the surface now, it seems. December 2005 on steroids.

[snow_wizard]

I have to comment on the PDX temps today. The coldest Jan low since 1963, record broken from 1950, -21 departure. Wow!

 

As jealous as I am I have to tip my hat to that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Blocking over the Hudson Bay in January, you don't see that very often.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011400/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wouldn't entirely shock me. PDX won't decouple fully but they're also probably gonna have the wind all day tomorrow. Outflow is very impressively cold and dew points keep edging down.

 

22 at TTD right now with winds E30G43. That is impressive!

 

15 at HIO

 

23 dp 13 at PDX

 

24 dp 16 at SLE

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to comment on the PDX temps today. The coldest Jan low since 1963, record broken from 1950, -21 departure. Wow!

 

As jealous as I am I have to tip my hat to that.

 

Agreed. Hermiston and Pendleton, OR broke record lows from 1909 today. That shocked me!

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see they are recording snow at PDX again.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. Hermiston and Pendleton, OR broke record lows from 1909 today. That shocked me!

1909 and 1950 were supposedly the 2 most spectacular minus PNA cold waves of the 20th century. Remarkable that records were broken from both of those with a totally different type of pattern.

[snow_wizard]

Blocking over the Hudson Bay in January, you don't see that very often.

 

A cold outcome for week two is certainly on the table right now. The CPC has been going with pretty cold colors for the NW.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice to see they are recording snow at PDX again.

You should stick around for some casual posting. People miss your input.

[BLI snowman]

Wouldn't entirely shock me. PDX won't decouple fully but they're also probably gonna have the wind all day tomorrow. Outflow is very impressively cold and dew points keep edging down.

 

Definitely makes me think some freezing rain is likely on Monday night.

[BLI snowman]

We are definitely in one of those self-perpetuating setups for cold at the surface now, it seems. December 2005 on steroids.

 

We are the new Kennewick.

[BLI snowman]

Nice to see they are recording snow at PDX again.

 

Nice to see you back!

[snow_wizard]

You should stick around for some casual posting. People miss your input.

I'll try. I have been perpetually angry for pretty much the entire month, but it's hard to ignore how profoundly different this is than anything we have had in decades. The thought of not getting a decent snow before this winter is over D**n near makes me ill though.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see you back!

Thanks!

[HighlandExperience]

Thanks!

I'm glad you are back. I feel your pain. It's been an incredibly frustrating couple of weeks for us Wa folks. Let's hope and pray w get hit soon.

[snow_wizard]

I'm glad you are back. I feel your pain. It's been an incredibly frustrating couple of weeks for us Wa folks. Let's hope and pray w get hit soon.

I think the chances are 60% or higher we will have another round of cold. We need some MJO forcing or something to change the details a bit. The ECMWF is looking good for a decent / progressive MJO wave so you never know.

 

Kind of funny that an hour ago I was sure I wouldn't post again until spring. I really have conflicting feelings going on right now.

[snow_wizard]

The low level cold is very impressive right now. Cloudy skies and yet solidly below freezing here thanks to seepage of cold air from Central WA. Pretty unusual to have such a cold reserve to tap into.

[Goducks09]

In January 2012 I saw 32" of snow disappear in 2 days...If it is a warm heavy rain that 8-12" will be gone by Wednesday morning like it never happened. 

 

 

I imagine we will have plenty of parking-lot piles and road-shoulder burms that will stick around for a few days...depending on the longevity of the warm rain.  Not that it will be all that comforting to see them stick around...rather, it will just be a reminder of what once was.     

 

I remember the Lake Oswego Alberton's parking lot still had respectably large piles of snow hanging around in January 2009.

[snow_wizard]

I imagine we will have plenty of parking-lot piles and road-shoulder burms that will stick around for a few days...depending on the longevity of the warm rain.  Not that it will be all that comforting to see them stick around...rather, it will just be a reminder of what once was.     

At least I don't have to worry about that problem.

[Bryant]

I think the chances are 60% or higher we will have another round of cold. We need some MJO forcing or something to change the details a bit. The ECMWF is looking good for a decent / progressive MJO wave so you never know.

 

Kind of funny that an hour ago I was sure I wouldn't post again until spring. I really have conflicting feelings going on right now.

Was going to mention the MJO, glad you said something. Anytime the strat warms, an MJO event is likely to ignite given the tropical strat will cool, creating a more convective regime for the MJO to thrive in. As of now, the MJO looks to begin over the East Pacific and shift into the EHem end of Jan/beginning of Feb. This lines up with Phils call for -EPO block to return. Welcome back

 

http://i.imgur.com/TCDgErUh.jpg

[Phil]

Was going to mention the MJO, glad you said something. Anytime the strat warms, an MJO event is likely to ignite given the tropical strat will cool, creating a more convective regime for the MJO to thrive in. As of now, the MJO looks to begin over the East Pacific and shift into the EHem end of Jan/beginning of Feb. This lines up with Phils call for -EPO block to return. Welcome back

 

http://i.imgur.com/TCDgErUh.jpg

Yup, no coincidence the MJO is readying to ignite following the potential SSW event:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Phil]

Woah

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011406&fh=-18&xpos=0&ypos=142

[IbrChris]

-53F in Meacham. Amazing airmass. 

It did hit -54 in the lower 48 already this year. Bonus points if you can figure out the location.

[catnip]

Woah

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011406&fh=-18&xpos=0&ypos=142

SSW? What could it mean for us?

[IbrChris]

An interesting comparison: Portland's mean temp is 29.4 for the first 13 days of January 2017. This is how it compares to past Januaries in the Portland-Vancouver area:

21.3.....1862
22.4.....1868

27.0.....1950

27.7.....1949

28.1.....1930

29.2.....1888

29.4.....2017

29.7.....1916

29.8.....1937

29.9.....1853

30.3.....1875

 

30 yr normal: 40.4

[Brennan]

An interesting comparison: Portland's mean temp is 29.4 for the first 13 days of January 2017. This is how it compares to past Januaries in the Portland-Vancouver area:

 

21.3.....1862

22.4.....1868

27.0.....1950

27.7.....1949

28.1.....1930

29.2.....1888

29.4.....2017

29.7.....1916

29.8.....1937

29.9.....1853

30.3.....1875

 

30 yr normal: 40.4

I think the most impressive part of this is that Bellingham's average for the month right now is 29 degrees. Dead even with Portland. Not too often PDX is in line with BLI for cold departures over a 2 week period.

[EA_TTD]

19 degrees with a WC of -1.  Remarkable by itself but the longevity of this pattern makes it truly something.  And as an aside, Jim needs to post here...he gets trolled way too much but his enthusiasm has been missing from this forum.

[westcoastexpat]

What's everyone's season snow total right now? I wonder if the PDX people have surpassed the metro Vancouver folks... what an epic storm.

 

I'm at ~23" for the season so far

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hillsboro is at single digits again. Wow.

[BLI snowman]

What's everyone's season snow total right now? I wonder if the PDX people have surpassed the metro Vancouver folks... what an epic storm.

 

I'm at ~23" for the season so far

 

I don't think anyone down here has had that much. I'm at a little over 17" here.

[FroYoBro]

There is still snow on the ground.

[snow maniac]

What's everyone's season snow total right now? I wonder if the PDX people have surpassed the metro Vancouver folks... what an epic storm.

 

I'm at ~23" for the season so far[/quote

1 inch here, pretty shitty

[IbrChris]

I think the most impressive part of this is that Bellingham's average for the month right now is 29 degrees. Dead even with Portland. Not too often PDX is in line with BLI for cold departures over a 2 week period.

Especially considering the general lack of snow at BLI.

[IbrChris]

What's everyone's season snow total right now? I wonder if the PDX people have surpassed the metro Vancouver folks... what an epic storm.

 

I'm at ~23" for the season so far

A couple inches in Dec that I wasn't here for (vacationing) and 7.5" in January so far so around 10-11" total for the season.

[Bryant]