January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I actually think the 0z GFS looked like an improvement over previous runs. More of a dirty ridge (over the NE Pacific) look to it.

 

It's going to be almost strange finally going into mild temperatures. It hasn't been 50 here since November.

That "dirty ridge" destructively interferes with the attempt at the EPO block. After the first week of February we'll lose the -PNA so want the EPO attempt unobstructed.

[snow_wizard]

One final note about solar activity. If you look at the deepest part of the last solar minimum (2007-2010) on the last cycle it's pretty easy to see why we should be excited about where we are.

[Timmy Supercell]

I haven't hit 50 since November 28th. Pretty amazing how cold it's been since December 4th

 

Last 50+ here was 11/15. I did have 49 on 12/09 but a bunch of upper 30's and low 40's otherwise.

[Phil]

The 00z GEFS did improve over the 18z. No residual anticyclone south of the Aleutians to screw things up.

[Brennan]

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

Best post ever made on the best day ever

[Deweydog]

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

 

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

 

http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

Seems completely wrong that you guys didn't bring sticks and a puck.

[Brennan]

Seems completely wrong that you guys didn't bring sticks and a puck.

We talked about it when we were out on the ice. I need to be more prepared for these once in 25 year events damnit.

[snow_wizard]

We talked about it when we were out on the ice. I need to be more prepared for these once in 25 year events damnit.

Let's hope we won't have to wait so long for the next one.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF already has the Pacific shut down again by day 10 if not sooner.

[luminen]

7" of rain forecast for here between Monday and Wednesday. 

 

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that. It's been an unusual winter to say the least.

[TT-SEA]

7" of rain forecast for here between Monday and Wednesday. 

 

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that. It's been an unusual winter to say the least.

 

 

Going to be some flooding... in the northern areas at least.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Going to be some flooding... in the northern areas at least.

 

About a half inch here.

 

Live by the rainshadow, die by the rainshadow.

[stuffradio]

Seems completely wrong that you guys didn't bring sticks and a puck.

They're not real Canadians I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Four straight single digit lows at HIO. WOW. 

 

Four straight lows in the teens at PDX. Double Wow. 

 

Think about this. PDX had what 2-3 lows in the teens this Century in January, this month they've had 6. 

 

I think we squeeze out another well below average day tomorrow too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2017

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 14TH...

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

*LONG CREEK, OR 2 / 2013 -3 1908
*PENDLETON(CITY), OR -8 / 1950 -9 1889
*WHITMAN MISSION, WA 0 / 1993 -17 1962

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PST FRI JAN 13 2017

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 13TH...

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

*LA GRANDE(CITY), OR 1 / 2007 -2 1887
*LONG CREEK, OR 0 / 1963 -4 1908
PENDLETON(ARPT), OR -2 / 1960 -8 1934
*PENDLETON(CITY), OR -7 / 1909 -9 1889
*PENDLETON(ES), OR -9 / 1993 -13 1932
*GOLDENDALE, WA -5 / 1949 -10 1905
WALLA WALLA, WA -3 / 1993 -5 1930
*WHITMAN MISSION, WA -9 / 1993 -15 1962

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size. http://i.imgur.com/dtMh8zYh.jpg

That's awesome, I've been meaning to drive down and check it out. Might have to do that this morning!

[Jesse]

Four straight single digit lows at HIO. WOW.

 

Four straight lows in the teens at PDX. Double Wow.

 

Think about this. PDX had what 2-3 lows in the teens this Century in January, this month they've had 6.

 

I think we squeeze out another well below average day tomorrow too.

I ran the numbers just for fun, and even if PDX has a 40 degree average temp from the 17th-31st they would still end up about 34.3 for the month.

 

So basically it will go down as a top ten cold January even if we essentially see average weather the rest of the month. Which may be conservative.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today was the 4th record low this month at Burns, OR

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I ran the numbers just for fun, and even if PDX has a 40 degree average temp from the 17th-31st they would still end up about 34.3 for the month.

 

So basically it will go down as a top ten cold January even if we essentially see average weather the rest of the month. Which may be conservative.

 

Nice to finally have some good cold in January. A lot of times these cold January's go back to back. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would recommend everyone go to the Pendleton Nws website and download their PDF wrap up of December. It was truly a special December for the gorge, Columbia basin, and Central Oregon. Some great historical perspective there.

[Phil]

Amazing how the GEFS looks completely different than both the EPS and CMC ensembles during week two.

 

I think it's mishandling the WPAC convection..looks completely different than all other modeling and it's always struggled to adequately grasp the MC/DL barrier effect.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Amazing how the GEFS looks completely different than both the EPS and CMC ensembles during week two.

 

I think it's mishandling the WPAC convection..looks completely different than all other modeling and it's always struggled to adequately grasp the MC/DL barrier effect.

 

Yeah, that MC/DL barrier effect can be a *****...  Wish they would update their software.

[Bryant]

That's awesome, I've been meaning to drive down and check it out. Might have to do that this morning!

It was quite amazing. We took a left at the bottom of Cable St in the Geneva neighborhood, if you're looking to head to the same spot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

700mb temp over Salem this morning was warmer than the surface!

[dairyd]

Going to be some flooding... in the northern areas at least.

 

 

From the hydrologic AFD:

"A big uncertainty at this point, as mentioned above, is the factthat the operational GFS run has consistently had the highest QPFof all the ensemble members; therefore, the GFS and UW WRF-GFSprecipitation amounts could be too high. It means that the NWRFCguidance for the rivers could also be too high. Anotherconsideration with regard to the potential for flooding is thatrivers are running low, many of them at their lowest levels sincethe end of the summer."

It's hard to get flooding in January with a well established snowpack like this.  November/December, sure.  The soil is also extremely dry, at least at the surface the heaviest soil could absorb at least an inch if not more once it thaws before flow develops.  It has had 2-3 weeks to drain subsurface which creates quite a buffer for rain events such as these.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

One final note about solar activity. If you look at the deepest part of the last solar minimum (2007-2010) on the last cycle it's pretty easy to see why we should be excited about where we are.

 

I took a look at the historic data for Victoria to see how our current absence of snowy Arctic blasts compares historically. I only included Arctic blasts that featured snow during or before the event and excluded ones that only featured an overrunning event or a very small amount going in. It looks like such stretches rarely exceed 5 years, and we always get a few snowy non-Arctic or overrunning events in between. I imagine the data must be pretty similar for the Seattle - Bellingham region.

 

feb 1917 - dec 1922 (~6 years)

jan 1932 - jan 1937 (~5 years)

jan 1943 - jan 1947 (~4 years)

dec 1964 - dec 1968 (~4 years)

jan 1973 - jan 1980 (~7 years)

feb 1986 - feb 1989 (~3 years)

dec 1992 - jan 1996 (~3 years)

dec 1998 - jan 2004 (~5 years)

jan 2012 - present (~5 years)

[snow_wizard]

Nice to finally have some good cold in January. A lot of times these cold January's go back to back.

Very true. I think at least one of the next three winters will have lake freezing cold again. We are now getting into what will probably be the deepest solar minimum at least since the Dalton minimum. Besides all of the other cycles we have talked about there also seem to be certain decades that end up much colder and blockier than others (1930s, 1950s, 1980s). No reason to think this winter is a fluke.

[snow_wizard]

From the hydrologic AFD:

 

"A big uncertainty at this point, as mentioned above, is the fact

that the operational GFS run has consistently had the highest QPF

of all the ensemble members; therefore, the GFS and UW WRF-GFS

precipitation amounts could be too high. It means that the NWRFC

guidance for the rivers could also be too high. Another

consideration with regard to the potential for flooding is that

rivers are running low, many of them at their lowest levels since

the end of the summer."

It's hard to get flooding in January with a well established snowpack like this.  November/December, sure.  The soil is also extremely dry, at least at the surface the heaviest soil could absorb at least an inch if not more once it thaws before flow develops.  It has had 2-3 weeks to drain subsurface which creates quite a buffer for rain events such as these.

A huge issue this time is frozen ground. Water is going to have a very difficult time soaking in. The ground is frozen pretty deep in places that don't have snow cover.

[snow_wizard]

I took a look at the historic data for Victoria to see how our current absence of snowy Arctic blasts compares historically. I only included Arctic blasts that featured snow during or before the event and excluded ones that only featured an overrunning event or a very small amount going in. It looks like such stretches rarely exceed 5 years, and we always get a few snowy non-Arctic or overrunning events in between. I imagine the data must be pretty similar for the Seattle - Bellingham region.

 

feb 1917 - dec 1922 (~6 years)

jan 1932 - jan 1937 (~5 years)

jan 1943 - jan 1947 (~4 years)

dec 1964 - dec 1968 (~4 years)

jan 1973 - jan 1980 (~7 years)

feb 1986 - feb 1989 (~3 years)

dec 1992 - jan 1996 (~3 years)

dec 1998 - jan 2004 (~5 years)

jan 2012 - present (~5 years)

Quite a few differences here.

 

1921-22 was a pretty snowy winter down this way

Jan 1935 was very snowy in the Puget Sound region

1965-66 was quite snowy here

Dec 1974 had a big rain to snow event down here

 

That having been said long low snow periods have happened here while Portland has done much better.

[MossMan]

It's odd not having any possibilities for snow coming up to track on the models...first time since the end of November.

[snow_wizard]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR

1040 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2017

 

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 14TH...

 

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE

PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE

OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY

OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

 

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS

RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

 

*LONG CREEK, OR 2 / 2013 -3 1908

*PENDLETON(CITY), OR -8 / 1950 -9 1889

*WHITMAN MISSION, WA 0 / 1993 -17 1962

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR

1030 AM PST FRI JAN 13 2017

 

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 13TH...

 

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE

PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE

OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY

OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

 

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS

RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

 

*LA GRANDE(CITY), OR 1 / 2007 -2 1887

*LONG CREEK, OR 0 / 1963 -4 1908

PENDLETON(ARPT), OR -2 / 1960 -8 1934

*PENDLETON(CITY), OR -7 / 1909 -9 1889

*PENDLETON(ES), OR -9 / 1993 -13 1932

*GOLDENDALE, WA -5 / 1949 -10 1905

WALLA WALLA, WA -3 / 1993 -5 1930

*WHITMAN MISSION, WA -9 / 1993 -15 1962

Incredible to see records from 1909, 1949, and 1950 going down. It has been 50 years since some locations have seen record lows in January.

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure....the models are going to have fits trying to figure out the coming pattern. Highly abnormal configuration coming up. The ECMWF shows a highly blocked pattern returning in week two with a high chance of well below normal temperatures once again. An emerging MJO wave is only going to muddy the waters even more. My biggest concern is the type of pattern coming up may find little opportunity to bring us moisture and cold together. Impossible to know for sure though.

[dairyd]

A huge issue this time is frozen ground. Water is going to have a very difficult time soaking in. The ground is frozen pretty deep in places that don't have snow cover.

 

I thought that on the last transition event but literally the ground absorbed the entire 0.75" of rain with no runoff.  And the ground was more saturated going into that event than this one, more snow and ice cover (so it absorbed about 2"), here it is bare ground.  If it is really a warm up as they say, it will be 40* rain which gets rid of a lot of frost as it penetrates the ground.  Now that these soils are drained and the water table is low, we get about 2-3 foot of storage over the water table which is well over a foot of AWHC in the better soils. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim i have had snow on the ground for 40 days! Ridiculous.

[snow_wizard]

It's odd not having any possibilities for snow coming up to track on the models...first time since the end of November.

There could be a shot at some 500 to 1000 foot snow levels in there later in the week.

[snow_wizard]

Jim i have had snow on the ground for 40 days! Ridiculous.

You are totally in minority there. Not shocking given how persistently cold it has been. We could just never find a way to get moisture in here when it was cold enough for snow. Pretty amazing to be cold enough to freeze the lakes around here and have almost no snow in the process.

[MossMan]

There could be a shot at some 500 to 1000 foot snow levels in there later in the week.

Perhaps that will be a surprise snow for us...if it can happen to Portland it can happen to us...right?

[TT-SEA]

One thing for sure....the models are going to have fits trying to figure out the coming pattern. Highly abnormal configuration coming up. The ECMWF shows a highly blocked pattern returning in week two with a high chance of well below normal temperatures once again. An emerging MJO wave is only going to muddy the waters even more. My biggest concern is the type of pattern coming up may find little opportunity to bring us moisture and cold together. Impossible to know for sure though.

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

 

Its not that important. Spring is coming though. That is for sure.

[Heavy Snow]

It's been an unbelievable week here around the area. In terms of snow and very cold temperatures, I have never seen this before. Some of the roads are as hard as a brick. It has felt like I've been driving through an Arctic Tundra the past few days.

[Deweydog]

You started this post stating something was for sure and then ended it saying its impossible to know for sure.

 

You talk yourself in circles.

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!