January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I am sort of skeptical.

 

ECMWF looks cool with low snow levels but does not look like an ideal block is returning. Hard to call... I just have a feeling the east will be colder in Feb and Mar and warmer in the west. We are also going to be in Florida in Feb so of course it will be cold there then.

Are you discounting Matt's very strong feeling for the end of January? Seems like he is right more than anyone on this forum!

[Phil]

Don't get my hopes up.

 

Following the 1993 analog into the summer would be AWESOME.

Horrible summer here, but I'd gladly suffer through another blast furnace if it means Tim sees cold drizzle all summer.

[Deweydog]

Are you discounting Matt's very strong feeling for the end of January? Seems like he is right more than anyone on this forum!

Mind you I have been intoxicated by widespread snow cover for several days.

[Phil]

EPO is going decidedly negative from neutral just a few days ago. Maybe the NPAC blowing off some actual steam this week is just what it needs to setup a good block for the next few weeks?

Actually, yes, that's exactly what needs to happen. Ideally the +WPO/+PNA lasts a few weeks, leads to a SSW/MJO event, which then blows up another huge EPO block, hence an eventual Arctic blast in February.

[MossMan]

Don't get my hopes up.

 

Following the 1993 analog into the summer would be AWESOME.

I have a feeling this summer season will be right up your alley. We've had way too many warm dry summers in a row...this year will be different

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Karma is very real, and I suspect you're in for quite the dose.

 

Coldest, wettest, drizzliest summer since the LIA upcoming?

 

I actually wouldn't mind a cooler wetter spring after the drought we had last year. Of course for Victoria a cooler-wetter spring still means quite a bit of sun with showers mixed in; however, places up in the hills can be socked in with clouds and drizzle for weeks with such a pattern. Coming off a relatively dry stretch like this I wouldn't be surprised if we have one of our famed cold wet springs.

[Jesse]

I have a feeling this summer season will be right up your alley. We've had way too many warm dry summers in a row...this year will be different

Can't wait.

[Phil]

I have a feeling this summer season will be right up your alley. We've had way too many warm dry summers in a row...this year will be different

Yeah, and I have a feeling I'm going to suffer, which implies a western trough. I get up close and personal with my Zillow app every summer..one of these years I'm actually gonna do it.

[Shawn]

Here is some photos taken today 1/15/2017.  In Scappoose area.

 

I measured just a hair under 12 inches when the snow stopped Wednesday afternoon.

 

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0619_zpsilc5d5gz.jpg

 

 

 

Had to dig out.

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0616_zpstwwaygo3.jpg

 

Weather Station, theres no heater on it.  So no wind speeds at the moment.http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0620_zpsk8bptm8f.jpg

 

Looking down our bumpy road.http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0618_zpsu4mbhnfh.jpg

 

Snow still on the North side of the trees.

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0617_zpsawnemw9f.jpg

 

This big maple came down at around 2:30 AM Wednesday morning.  It was very loud

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0621_zpsnm1hr9gp.jpg and I could feel when it hit the ground.  The wet heavy snow was to much.

 

Thanks for the upload input.

[dairyd]

EPO is going decidedly negative from neutral just a few days ago.   Maybe the NPAC blowing off some actual steam this week is just what it needs to setup a good block for the next few weeks?

 

 

 

And I know it is garbage time, but GFS is developing a nice blocking pattern to start watching.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011512/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_53.png

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble likes the idea of the Hudson Bay block retrograding toward Alaska later in week two. That would probably work out for us in the long run.

[dairyd]

Actually, yes, that's exactly what needs to happen. Ideally the +WPO/+PNA lasts a few weeks, leads to a SSW/MJO event, which then blows up another huge EPO block, hence an eventual Arctic blast in February.

And wave theory makes sense...

[Phil]

18z GFS already depicting more efficient WAFz via stronger NPAC jet/+PNA, hence a stronger preconditioning for another wave1/wave2 cycle and stronger -EPO in February when forcing cycles back to Niña domain(s).

[Jesse]

Snowshoeing around Ridgefield wildlife refuge today. Like Scappoose, there is probably close to a foot of snow on the ground still here. What a postcard. Pictures to come later.

[MossMan]

18z GFS already depicting more efficient WAFz via stronger NPAC jet, hence a stronger preconditioning for another wave1/wave2 cycle and stronger -EPO in February.

I think that is good for us, if so...great news!!

[BLI snowman]

Snowshoeing around Ridgefield wildlife refuge today. Like Scappoose, there is probably close to a foot of snow on the ground still here. What a postcard. Pictures to come later.

 

It's still pretty deep in the shade around here, has stayed on most of the trees all week. 

[Bham_Guy]

Still only 27 at PDX. Pretty amazing run down there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah pretty impressive low level cold airmass. To have highs upper 20s in the PDX area and low-mid30s further south in the non snow covered areas is pretty amazing with full sunshine. 

[MossMan]

Still only 27 at PDX. Pretty amazing run down there.

Indeed. Up to 39 here. Only 11 in Moses Lake and -35 in Fairbanks!

[Phil]

Jumped a bit ahead of myself with that previous post. This anticyclone @ D5 is a problem given the developmental nature of the upcoming -EPO. Wrong conduit..destructively interferes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B8BD2382-B76A-492A-AE04-F1F1246CDB9D_zpsj8zrwnmg.jpeg

 

In the long run it's meaningless but if pattern trends towards something more borderline, it doesn't take much to mess up what would otherwise be a nice pattern progression.

[TT-SEA]

You're a ******* *******.

 

I said the ECMWF showed a highly blocked pattern that would make it cold. The last part of the post I was talking about snow.

 

I'm so glad you got your fill of snow and you can rub in it in everyone's face that didn't get any.

I know what you were saying. I was just joking about your strong language. I think you try to convince yourself of things.

 

Have not rubbed in anything... and in fact celebrated the lowland snow in WA and definitely in OR.

[Phil]

The EPO might fail altogether this run, though the progression will still eventually lead there, even verbatim.

[TT-SEA]

Here is some photos taken today 1/15/2017. In Scappoose area.

 

I measured just a hair under 12 inches when the snow stopped Wednesday afternoon.

 

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0619_zpsilc5d5gz.jpg

 

 

 

Had to dig out.

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0616_zpstwwaygo3.jpg

 

Weather Station, theres no heater on it. So no wind speeds at the moment.http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0620_zpsk8bptm8f.jpg

 

Looking down our bumpy road.http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0618_zpsu4mbhnfh.jpg

 

Snow still on the North side of the trees.

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0617_zpsawnemw9f.jpg

 

This big maple came down at around 2:30 AM Wednesday morning. It was very loud

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss28/samoffett/IMG_0621_zpsnm1hr9gp.jpg and I could feel when it hit the ground. The wet heavy snow was to much.

 

Thanks for the upload input.

Awesome!

[TT-SEA]

Karma is very real, and I suspect you're in for quite the dose.

 

Coldest, wettest, drizzliest summer since the LIA upcoming?

What karma?? How could I have been more happy for the people that saw snow? Could not have been.

 

We are going to be gone way too much this summer so its a moot point for us. Although I suspect now it will be really nice coming off a neutral winter.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful sunshine in the south valley today, snow or not I wish our winters had more cold clear weather.

Its been so nice. Nothing beats cold sunshine in the winter. Regardless of snow.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not going to take these posts where Tim tries to make it sound like I'm an idiot. I flat out predicted lowland snow on New Years way before it happened. Just as an example..

Its been snowing for 6 weeks.

 

You flat out attacked me posting realistic data on New Years Eve. I said if this winter was neutral we would end up with lots of blocking. That has happened. I called for a good January back in April. So we were both right back then reading the analogs.

[snow_wizard]

Its been snowing for 6 weeks.

 

You flat out attacked me posting realistic data on New Years Eve. I said if this winter was neutral we would end up with lots of blocking. That has happened. I called for a good January back in April. So we were both right back then reading the analogs.

 

I'm just not getting why you are mocking the people who didn't get snow.  You almost come off like they deserve it for living where they do.  It does snow in places that have been shafted this winter you know.  A load of bad luck for some.

 

This winter really frustrates me because the big picture is good, but D**n near everyone has gotten good snowfall except for some places in the Central Puget Sound.  Historically speaking we should have done better.  This really stings after the same D**n thing happened in 2013-14.  I think it's more likely than not this area won't hit the pay station this winter at all.  And then who knows what kind of winter we will have next season.  If we can stay away from a Nino it will probably be decent, but still...

[van city]

WTF is wrong with Tim anyway? What a ******* bully.

I call people like him... High school push over.

[snow_wizard]

This climate can just drive a person up the wall!

[Phil]

What karma?? How could I have been more happy for the people that saw snow? Could not have been.

 

We are going to be gone way too much this summer so its a moot point for us. Although I suspect now it will be really nice coming off a neutral winter.

I can see right through you, and so can everyone else. I'm not sure you realize just how transparent you are, but the game you're playing is quite obvious.

[Bryant]

I can see right through you, and so can everyone else. I'm not sure you realize just how transparent you are, but the game you're playing is quite obvious.

Indeed

[TT-SEA]

I'm just not getting why you are mocking the people who didn't get snow. You almost come off like they deserve it for living where they do. It does snow in places that have been shafted this winter you know. A s**t load of bad luck for some.

 

This winter really frustrates me because the big picture is good, but D**n near everyone has gotten good snowfall except for some places in the Central Puget Sound. Historically speaking we should have done better. This really stings after the same D**n thing happened in 2013-14. I think it's more likely than not this area won't hit the pay station this winter at all. And then who knows what kind of winter we will have next season. If we can stay away from a Nino it will probably be decent, but still...

Its all random and nature does not care.

[TT-SEA]

I can see right through you, and so can everyone else. I'm not sure you realize just how transparent you are, but the game you're playing is quite obvious.

There is no game. It so stupid.

 

I hope you have 105 degrees with 90 degree dewpoints. Neither of us control the weather.

[TT-SEA]

This climate can just drive a person up the wall!

Move. We have come to love it here despite an insanely wet decade. It is what it is.

[Deweydog]

This climate can just drive a person up the wall!

I like it.

[TT-SEA]

I'm just not getting why you are mocking the people who didn't get snow. You almost come off like they deserve it for living where they do. It does snow in places that have been shafted this winter you know. A s**t load of bad luck for some.

 

This winter really frustrates me because the big picture is good, but D**n near everyone has gotten good snowfall except for some places in the Central Puget Sound. Historically speaking we should have done better. This really stings after the same D**n thing happened in 2013-14. I think it's more likely than not this area won't hit the pay station this winter at all. And then who knows what kind of winter we will have next season. If we can stay away from a Nino it will probably be decent, but still...

When have I mocked people for not getting snow??

 

You made it hard to cheer for you on New Years Eve though. You were in attack mode.

 

Show me ONE post mocking people for not getting snow?

 

I posted maybe a hundred lowland snowfall maps while you were angrily absent from the forum.

 

You are making this up.

[MossMan]

I like it.

You even get free stuff blown into your yard...what's not to like about that!

[snow_wizard]

I like it.

 

Pretty easy for you to say after two great snowy winters in the past 4 years.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty easy for you to say after two great snowy winters in the past 4 years.

Its not about snow for me at all... its about summer.

[Brennan]

Its not about snow for me at all... its about summer.

He wasn't talking about you.