January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Even places like Lytton are bordering on semi arid. Probably a lot of places in the interior are in that category.

 

A place like Kamloops only averages 11" precip per year. 

 

There's a little town called Spences Bridge that's even more arid. Averages around 10" precip, and holds the Canadian record for mean maximum for a month. They averaged something like 35.5C/96F in July 1906. This is an old stat though, so I don't know if its been exceeded in some of the recent hot summers. 

[snow_wizard]

Less backdoor setups.

 

The last truly good Fraser river outflow event was in January 2012, IMO. And what do you know, Washington state was buried.

I suppose. On the other hand we had about 5 good Fraser blasts this winter. Probably still a bit of a back door element though. Portland does seem to kick our a$$es with backdoor crap.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Less backdoor setups.

 

The last truly good Fraser river outflow event was in January 2012, IMO. And what do you know, Washington state was buried.

 

Those are actually better for snow at my location. 

 

The arctic air may not make it all the way down here, but the cold onshore flow buries me. Nov 06, Nov 10, Feb 11', and Jan 12 were great for snow up here. This January has just been good. 

[Front Ranger]

No doubt that Portland and the Willamette Valley with snow on the ground with weak offshore flow is a force to be reckoned with. Insane anomalies ensue. That is what makes January 1950 such an extreme anomaly for Seattle. Not only was it colder than Portland, but it was colder than any month Portland has ever recorded. That was just a different animal altogether.

 

Number of months since 1945 with a mean temp below 36.

 

SEA: 10

PDX: 15

 

PDX has always been better than SEA at hanging on to low level cold, creating an easier path to colder months like we're seeing this January.

 

Overall, their temp averages/extremes are very similar, and SEA tends to better with the more impressive upper level air masses.

[Jesse]

Less backdoor setups.

 

The last truly good Fraser river outflow event was in January 2012, IMO. And what do you know, Washington state was buried.

Wasn't there pretty cold Fraser outflow for a long time in December?

 

I think you have probably had snow on the ground longer than just about anyone here sans Tim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS ensemble looks to be going somewhere good on the 500mb level. Classic retrogression. A ridge over Alaska seems to be default this winter.

 

I think my favorite retrograde ever was February 1995. 

[dairyd]

Looks like our sunny, snow-covered days are coming to an end.

 

Was able to get out this morning and snag some sunrise shots which I have been missing because of work.  6 days now with this snow on the ground!

 

For anyone that doesn't like water-marked photos, move to the next post!

Who's dairy in the background?

[Front Ranger]

The 12z ECMWF is actually progressing nicely towards a legitimate -EPO. Gets rid of that stubborn sub-Aleutian ridge that counteracts the process on the GFS.

 

Yeah, I mean it trends the EPO down slowly and barely gets negative at the end, but the overall pattern is pretty different than what this winter featured the first 6 weeks, and it would be a stretch to call it promising (for the West, at least).

[snow_wizard]

PDX highs per ECMWF

 

16th - 30

17th - 35

18th - 43

19th - 47

20th - 42

21st - 43

 

Might escape hitting 50.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My first freeze was December 4th. Since then I have had sub freezing lows 39 out of 44 days. 13 sub-freezing highs. I have also had 4 days with highs of 33.

[Tyler Mode]

Who's dairy in the background?

No clue honestly.  Been around a long time!

[snow_wizard]

Number of months since 1945 with a mean temp below 36.

 

SEA: 10

PDX: 15

 

PDX has always been better than SEA at hanging on to low level cold, creating an easier path to colder months like we're seeing this January.

 

Overall, their temp averages/extremes are very similar, and SEA tends to better with the more impressive upper level air masses.

And yet SEA has the coldest month by quite a margin. Interesting.

 

I'm really shocked they've only had 10 average that low. Obviously outlying areas have many more.

[ShawniganLake]

Those are actually better for snow at my location.

 

The arctic air may not make it all the way down here, but the cold onshore flow buries me. Nov 06, Nov 10, Feb 11', and Jan 12 were great for snow up here. This January has just been good.

Sort of illustrates my point. All of those events you listed produced big snow potential in western Washington. As well as produced much colder outflow than anything we have seen since.

[stuffradio]

A place like Kamloops only averages 11" precip per year. 

 

There's a little town called Spences Bridge that's even more arid. Averages around 10" precip, and holds the Canadian record for mean maximum for a month. They averaged something like 35.5C/96F in July 1906. This is an old stat though, so I don't know if its been exceeded in some of the recent hot summers. 

That's crazy when you consider I get ~82" per year

[wx_statman]

This is what my street looked like yesterday afternoon. Livin' the northern life!

 

 

[snow_wizard]

My first freeze was December 4th. Since then I have had sub freezing lows 39 out of 44 days. 13 sub-freezing highs. I have also had 4 days with highs of 33.

Impressive stats. I did beat you on first freeze. Only one high of 32 or below , but 25 below 40.

[snow_wizard]

Sort of illustrates my point. All of those events you listed produced big snow potential in western Washington. As well as produced much colder outflow than anything we have seen since.

I think the key is the interior of BC gets much colder with non back door events. Places like Fort Nelson just haven't been putting in the -40 to -60 readings going into these cold waves. That is probably the key. We need it to get bitter in the Yukon and northern BC and then drop down.

[jakeinthevalley]

Took my daughter and friends to Oaks Park for a birthday roller skate outing yesterday and finally got to see, firsthand, what Portland has been dealing with. All main roads are mostly fine but any less travelled side streets are locked in. Cars are still buried etc.

 

It may be a joke when the city shuts down during minor events, but with this one, it was justified.

[ShawniganLake]

Wasn't there pretty cold Fraser outflow for a long time in December?

 

I think you have probably had snow on the ground longer than just about anyone here sans Tim.

Snowcover here since December 5th, second longest duration I can remember. 2008-2009 was in the 70ish day range.

 

The outflow hasn't been overly impressive but it has been consistent. The Fraser canyon is north south orientated and just seems to deliver the cold more directly and effectively when the Arctic air is delivered from the north rather than the ENE. The cold snaps the last several years have generally introduced the cold in a slower and somewhat moderated fashion. January 2012 for instance, produced afternoon highs at Abbotsford as cold as any nighttime lows have been this season, even with all the clear skies we have seen.

[Bryant]

But did you see snakes?

I did not. Would be cool to see a rattle snake in person, unless I saw it too late

[Phil]

For me sunny / dry summers with dry air is where it's at. Maybe six decent thunderstorms per summer and cold winters is what I'm looking for. Most places east of the Cascades pull that off just fine. Even the storms that aren't severe can be spectacular lightning producers.

Well, they're called thunderstorms for a reason. They produce lightning and thunder. A cell that lasts 10 minutes, produces a few lightning strikes, then dies barely even qualifies IMO. Where's the fun in that?

 

That adrenaline rush during a legitimate, severe caliber thunderstorm is almost an addiction to me, and if you ever experience one, I'm sure you'll agree. Lightning bolts raining down from the sky, sheets of rain blown sideways by high winds, and the occasional "blender" when hail enters the picture..it's something that (usually) makes summer tolerable for me.

[Phil]

The 12z GFS ensemble looks to be going somewhere good on the 500mb level. Classic retrogression. A ridge over Alaska seems to be default this winter.

I don't like the 12z GEFS as much. That ridge south of the Aleutians will counteract the retrogressive process that would otherwise produce a -EPO. The EPO will arise from a discontinuous retrogression of the North American wavetrain, not anything out of the NPAC since the tropical/subtropical forcing isn't there.

[Phil]

Yeah, I mean it trends the EPO down slowly and barely gets negative at the end, but the overall pattern is pretty different than what this winter featured the first 6 weeks, and it would be a stretch to call it promising (for the West, at least).

Well the tropical forcing is different, so we'll have to get there a different way. That doesn't mean it won't happen, it'll just require a different conduit.

 

It doesn't have to (and won't) resemble December/January.

[BLI snowman]

Fascinating to note that in the time since SEA last saw a 32F or lower maximum (2/6/2014), PDX has seen eight of them. Soon to be nine.

 

Likely a pretty unprecedented disparity. 

[TT-SEA]

Fascinating to note that in the time since SEA last saw a 32F or lower maximum (2/6/2014), PDX has seen eight of them. Soon to be nine.

 

Likely a pretty unprecedented disparity.

 

Yeah... they rolled through this entire period with no days below freezing. They even had snow on the ground for a few of those days.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen has a new post, he is becoming confident that PDX central and eastern metro will see a major ice storm tomorrow and obviously even worse in the gorge. Thinks the rest of the metro will still start out with ZR and the roads should be a mess everywhere tomorrow. 

[dairyd]

How common is it for the pacific jet to get over 200kt?

 

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif

[Jesse]

Fascinating to note that in the time since SEA last saw a 32F or lower maximum (2/6/2014), PDX has seen eight of them. Soon to be nine.

 

Likely a pretty unprecedented disparity. 

 

Insane January 25th-February 10th for the Puget Sound incoming.

[Heavy Snow]

Mark Nelsen has a new post, he is becoming confident that PDX central and eastern metro will see a major ice storm tomorrow and obviously even worse in the gorge. Thinks the rest of the metro will still start out with ZR and the roads should be a mess everywhere tomorrow. 

 

Yeah, I just saw it. I know all good cold things must come to an end but I not like this. He doesn't think PDX makes it above freezing tomorrow.

 

"If models are correct, 1-2″ ice could form on all exposed surfaces, doing tremendous damage to trees/powerlines that we haven’t seen in 20 years."

[Deweydog]

The gorge is gonna be a nasty place to be. An inch+ of ice on top of 18-24 inches of snow east of Cascade Locks. No bueno.

[TT-SEA]

44 at SEA and 28 at PDX. Crazy.

[wx_statman]

Quite the winter so far in Baker City, OR. 

 

-18 again this morning, for their 21st subzero low and 9th below -10 since December 1st

 

The 14.7F average in December broke the 1978 record of 14.9F

 

The January average through yesterday was 7.0F which would be 2nd only to 1949 (5.1F) for the entire month

 

For perspective, BKE went 38 years without either December or January averaging below 16F (February 1989 did pull of 14.7F), and they're about to average below 16F in both December '16 and January '17

[Jesse]

The gorge is gonna be a nasty place to be. An inch+ of ice on top of 18-24 inches of snow east of Cascade Locks. No bueno.

 

Do you seeing things getting pretty bad for us east metro folks? Mark seems convinced.

 

I remember telling several people we were in for a damaging ice storm on the 8th and that never panned out. Although this time the low level airmass seems to have a little more bite.

[wx_statman]

Mark Nelsen has a new post, he is becoming confident that PDX central and eastern metro will see a major ice storm tomorrow and obviously even worse in the gorge. Thinks the rest of the metro will still start out with ZR and the roads should be a mess everywhere tomorrow. 

 

Too much freezing rain this winter. This is nuts

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, I just saw it. I know all good cold things must come to an end but I not like this. He doesn't think PDX makes it above freezing tomorrow.

 

"If models are correct, 1-2″ ice could form on all exposed surfaces, doing tremendous damage to trees/powerlines that we haven’t seen in 20 years."

 

Yeah, a lot of people are going to say goodbye to power if that happens. 

[wx_statman]

Do you seeing things getting pretty bad for us east metro folks? Mark seems convinced.

 

I remember telling several people we were in for a damaging ice storm on the 8th and that never panned out. Although this time the low level airmass seems to have a little more bite.

 

The east metro had a significant ice storm on Sunday the 8th...did it miss east Vancouver?

[Perturbed Member]

Too much freezing rain this winter. This is nuts

 

Yeah, Mark is directly saying to skip school and work tomorrow. Not often you see that. 

[TT-SEA]

43 at my house now as well... assume we have downslope warming there.

[Jesse]

The east metro had a significant ice storm on Sunday the 8th...did it miss east Vancouver?

 

We had maybe a half inch of ice or more here on some surfaces. But the roads were decent and drivable by mid day. We hovered from 31 to 33 most of the afternoon. Temps were a lot more marginal for that one than this one potentially looks to be.

[wx_statman]

We had maybe a half inch of ice or more here on some surfaces. But the roads were decent and drivable by mid day. We hovered from 31 to 33 most of the afternoon. Temps were a lot more marginal for that one than this one potentially looks to be.

 

I'd still call that signficant. Haha. Semantics I guess.