January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[epiceast]

Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week.

Only If I get robbed and don't get my 4' instead.

[Jesse]

According to NWS Seattle we have great news!! The airmass will be dry so any mention of snow in the lowlands have been dropped!! Isn't that just wonderful!!! I'm so happy!!! And my wife mentioned that she noticed the grass ( where we still have grass) is startling to grow! Let it spring Let it spring Let it spring!!

 

Nice! I'm guessing the freezing temperatures the last several mornings and the coming snow will keep our grass at bay for a little while yet! Let it winter!!

[MossMan]

Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week.

I have an excellent chance of not surpassing my 4 inches!!

[BLI snowman]

It'll probably snow next week.

[Jesse]

I have an excellent chance of not surpassing my 4 inches!!

 

You will probably get a sloppy foot in early March.

[Jesse]

Month to date. Very impressively cold month over both Oregon and Washington. At least we have all been sharing the love with the cold!

 

[epiceast]

Looks Like GEM is staying the course, hopefully Euro does the same. Only GFS pushes the boundary way south after the first day.

[epiceast]

Month to date. Very impressively cold month over both Oregon and Washington. At least we have all been sharing the love with the cold!

 

IMG_8869.PNG

I kinda hate the purple anomaly over myself, would rather have that for precipitation.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012912/gem_asnow_nwus_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_asnow_nwus_25.png

 

 

 

12z NAM is fairly generous with pushing in the cold air fairly far south. Does show some light snow in the area by hr78 before the main precip. 850mb temps are really marginal on all models though. 

[Jesse]

I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many. 

 

Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many.

 

Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.

Always next year.

[Jesse]

Always next year.

 

As Andrew once wisely mentioned, good Januaries tend to come in bunches historically!

[BLI snowman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012912/gem_asnow_nwus_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_asnow_nwus_25.png

 

 

 

12z NAM is fairly generous with pushing in the cold air fairly far south. Does show some light snow in the area by hr78 before the main precip. 850mb temps are really marginal on all models though.

Anyone north of the 540 thickness line will be cold enough for snow. It's a low level seepage event with the actual arctic boundary well to the north, so the 850mb temps are largely irrelevant as long as they stay below freezing.

 

The winners will be those just north of the 540 line, where frontogenesis will be maximized along the lower level boundary. Looking like a fairly narrow area at this point, likely between Salem and Olympia.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017012912/images_d2/or_snow48.132.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As Andrew once wisely mentioned, good Januaries tend to come in bunches historically!

Yep. I would bet January 18 or 19 will good.

[ShawniganLake]

I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many.

 

Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.

If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing.

[Jesse]

If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing.

 

Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest.

[MossMan]

Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest.

Where many of us up here live.

[HighlandExperience]

Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest.

 

Problem is that is where most people live. 

[HighlandExperience]

If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing.

 

For places north of Centralia this winter will mostly be forgettable. Unless something amazing happens between now and beginning of March.  

[Deweydog]

I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many.

 

Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.

Thank you for your honesty.

 

Up until now I assumed you wished only horrible things for our neighbors to the north.

[Jesse]

Thank you for your honesty.

 

Up until now I assumed you wished only horrible things for our neighbors to the north.

 

I think you are confusing me with Andrew.

[Jesse]

Problem is that is where most people live. 

 

Centralia to Medford has a decent chunk of population too.

[Perturbed Member]

Anyone north of the 540 thickness line will be cold enough for snow. It's a low level seepage event with the actual arctic boundary well to the north, so the 850mb temps are largely irrelevant as long as they stay below freezing.

 

The winners will be those just north of the 540 line, where frontogenesis will be maximized along the lower level boundary. Looking like a fairly narrow area at this point, likely between Salem and Olympia.

 

Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing. 

 

Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017.

[Deweydog]

I think you are confusing me with Andrew.

It sounds like the weather equivalent of white guilt. The majority of western Washington lowlanders will see this winter as pretty cold but pretty forgettable. Ouch.

[Jesse]

Where many of us up here live.

 

That is a solid chunk. Just imagine the PNW as a cake and snow as frosting. If you cut the cake into 20 pieces and forgot to put frosting on one there would be at least one kid crying at the birthday party.

[HighlandExperience]

[Jesse]

It sounds like the weather equivalent of white guilt. The majority of western Washington lowlanders will see this winter as pretty cold but pretty forgettable. Ouch.

 

I don't feel sorry for them so much as I do for us for having to deal with them throwing asterisks up every time we talk about this amazing winter.

[Deweydog]

Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing.

 

Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017.

I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles.

[Jesse]

I should say cultural influencers

 

We have Portlandia. Seattle hasn't had a major show since Frasier. And his apartment wasn't even physically possible.

[BLI snowman]

Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing.

 

Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017.

The winner is likely going to be someone who stays in the -1c to -3c ballpark at 850mb, so very marginal at that level. Models tend to underdo deformation in these setups and these weak boundaries do tend to be very stubborn and slow-moving, so I imagine somebody will score 6" or more from it with a fairly prolonged event.

[Deweydog]

I don't feel sorry for them so much as I do for us for having to deal with them throwing asterisks up every time we talk about this amazing winter.

True. I guess it's more like white supremacy.

 

Just narrow your focus and avoid diversity. Put Sounders on ignore and you'll soon convince yourself this was a regional blockbuster.

[ShawniganLake]

That is a solid chunk. Just imagine the PNW as a cake and snow as frosting. If you cut the cake into 20 pieces and forgot to put frosting on one there would be at least one kid crying at the birthday party.

Who puts frosting on a cake after it's been cut?

[Jesse]

True. I guess it's more like white supremacy.

 

Just narrow your focus and avoid diversity. Put Sounders on ignore and you'll soon convince yourself this was a regional blockbuster.

 

Lets wait until March 15th to talk about how badly screwed Seattle got.

[Deweydog]

Lets wait until March 15th to talk about how badly screwed Seattle got.

No love for the third week of March?

[ShawniganLake]

We have Portlandia. Seattle hasn't had a major show since Frasier. And his apartment wasn't even physically possible.

Portlandia? Never heard of it. Any good?

[Perturbed Member]

I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles.

 

I thought we were colder on 12/14 with the cold air already in place? The cold air racing south into the eastern sides of the cascades and then coming to us via the gorge with the low approaching from the SW reminds me more of 1/10 even though the details are a bit different. Pretty much a given that this won't be anywhere nearly as widespread though. 

[BLI snowman]

I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles.

Not too much like 12-8, that was a more traditional overrunning scenario.

 

This will be about deformation along a stalled boundary, so inherently hard to predict. Fairly similar to what produced the storm in late February 2014 in Whatcom County, also quite similar to a setup in mid February 1980.

[Heavy Snow]

Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow?

I'm here.

[Jesse]

I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles.

 

1.25"?