January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Dome Buster]

s**t...

 

No one even checked the east wind density index (EWDI) going into this winter. Would have saved us from a lot of model riding.

Quit taking it as face value what I say.

 

What I am saying is that it has had much more persistence and influence than previous years especially with undercutting lows.  Previous 8 years have been a moderation nightmare.

[Trainwreck]

Well, I was stood corrected!!

 

I was amazed at the over-performance of the last event. Just shows that this year is different and the intrusion of east winds is more dense and persistent than the last 30 years (2008 exempt from this). Just a strange year as I figured we were screwed again due to lack of dense snow cover in the basin, originally.

 

Now that we have a good basin snow. All bets are off.

'03-'04 as well.

[Guest Dome Buster]

s**t...

 

No one even checked the east wind density index (EWDI) going into this winter. Would have saved us from a lot of model riding.

And replace density with depth and it makes sense. Don't be a jerk.

[Guest Dome Buster]

'03-'04 as well.

True.  I was in Seattle at the time so my memory is a little off for PDX events.   I know you've told me many times how that was in your top 5 events, Mat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately the 00z is a big step back...

[TT-SEA]

ENSO neutral winters seem to favor plenty of offshore flow. I usually like neutral... snowy or not. Summers tend to be good as well.

 

Low solar and ENSO neutral is probably even more favorable for blocking.

[Jesse]

Unfortunately the 00z is a big step back...

If I was able to believe anything you post I'd be worried.

[Deweydog]

If I was able to believe anything you post I'd be worried.

Unforunately the 00z is a big step back...

[dairyd]

Decent outflow today, 15-25 all day long.  was quite surprised for

[liquidsnow]

Well that was lame. Back to reality we go.

[Jesse]

Unforunately the 00z is a big step back...

Well crap.

 

Thanks for the update Matt!

[Deweydog]

Only a 20dm difference in thicknesses at 108 hours compared to the 18z.

[Jesse]

Only a 20dm difference in thicknesses at 108 hours compared to the 18z.

NAM leads the way again?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z ensemble hinted at this.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Perturbed Member]

That SW low is coming in much further north on this run which is holding up the progress of the BC slider and the cold air. Shouldn't be all that shocking since the NAVGEM and ECMWF showed this low coming in way further north than the previous GFS runs which sent it into central CA.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

 

Previous GFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

 

 

 

18z NAVGEM for comparison

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_20.png

[Bryant]

Well sh*t... thought puget sound might finally have some fun

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ugh, the 0z GFS doesn't even look good for the overrunning event; screws us on bringing in the moisture again. I think there's still hope for a decent overrun given the trajectory of the low and airmass ahead of it, but the transition shown over the weekend is concerning for our prospects early next week. Will we have another Jan 2011 on our hands?

[umadbro]

Do I know you?

Sorta. Ive been around the weather groups for several years. You're still just as stuck up and sensitive as always.

[Timmy]

This place gets sour in a hurry with a bad run!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

At least we still have the GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

[Jesse]

Sorta. Ive been around the weather groups for several years. You're still just as stuck up and sensitive as always.

Yikes. Umadbro?

[Dave]

That was ouchie.

[Deweydog]

January 2005 in February???

[umadbro]

This place gets sour in a hurry with a bad run!

Meh. Its been a phenomenal winter. I'm not to worried if it snows or not.

[Jesse]

Hoping for the sake of our northern friends that this is just a hiccup.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Timmy]

At least we still have the GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

at least *you do

[Jesse]

at least *you do

Screw snow.

[BLI snowman]

Sad!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Meh. Its been a phenomenal winter. I'm not to worried if it snows or not.

Me either I am going to read the stats book I have compiled to the grandchildren .... it has really been that amazing and satisfying. Looking forward to spring as all this winter weather is just overwhelming.

[Perturbed Member]

Well that certainly went to hell in a hurry, different progression than we've seen. The low currently offshore is looking stronger and more well organized this run too. Interesting that the euro had that second SW low coming in pretty far north as well but it didn't stop the cold air from moving in.

[Jesse]

Well that certainly went to hell in a hurry, different progression than we've seen. The low currently offshore is looking stronger and more well organized this run too. Interesting that the euro had that second SW low coming in pretty far north as well but it didn't stop the cold air from moving in.

 

Just one run. I wouldn't put a fork in it yet.

 

There have been some pretty wild swings the past several days. And progressively better runs the last 24 hours or more. We were due for a turd.

[Bryant]

Screw snow.

Was going to say this as well

[Trainwreck]

Me either I am going to read the stats book I have compiled to the grandchildren .... it has really been that amazing and satisfying. Looking forward to spring as all this winter weather is just overwhelming.

You need help. For something as uncontrollable as the weather to make you act this way for as long as you have is undeniably worrisome. I hope you don't have any guns.

[Heavy Snow]

Real interesting. I guess Mark thinks enough of the column will remain 0c or less to support a quick inch or two before the switch over. Sure would be nice if it happened.

 

Yeah, I was thinking at best an inch but I trust Mark on his experience with these transition events. If the entire Metro area got 2" it wouldn't surprise me.

[Deweydog]

I blame dome buster's density.

[Perturbed Member]

Just one run. I wouldn't put a fork in it yet.

 

There have been some pretty wild swings the past several days. And progressively better runs the last 24 hours or more. We were due for a turd.

 

Yeah I'm not putting a fork in it quite yet. Euro and NAVGEM still on our side and euro ensemble support for all of this was pretty reasonable. If we see the 00z euro totally give up, then it might be time to worry.

[Jesse]

Was going to say this as well

 

Words that will forever haunt him.

[Bryant]

Would be quite ironic if the one time the low trends north this winter, is actually the one time we don't want it to

[Trainwreck]

Yeah, I was thinking at best an inch but I trust Mark on his experience with these transition events. If the entire Metro area got 2" it wouldn't surprise me.

That's why he gets paid. He is by far the best met in town and probably top ten in the country. He lives and breathes it more fanatically than any of us do. His passion puts him over the top.