February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AB351CDA-F32D-42AD-8F88-83D420507589_zps9w0bruvf.png

 

 

Just ridiculous. I think you northern posters will finally be compensated for your suffering all winter. This is coming together nicely for you guys and the models are starting to converge. 

 

 

This might be one of those relatively rare cases where a low going pretty much right into PDX can get us some snow here just from the sheer precip rates and relatively calm winds. Hopefully we can get in on the fun too, but I suppose we had our fun.

[seattleweatherguy]

Coming down a tad harder nothing sticking

[Guest Sounder]

I wont be able to enjoy this storm unless everyone south of Kelso gets absolutely nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Just ridiculous. I think you northern posters will finally be compensated for your suffering all winter. This is coming together nicely for you guys and the models are starting to converge. 

 

 

This might be one of those relatively rare cases where a low going pretty much right into PDX can get us some snow here just from the sheer precip rates and relatively calm winds. Hopefully we can get in on the fun too, but I suppose we had our fun.

 

 

The track of low is absolutely everything... if it passes even slightly south of PDX then you guys could be buried again and have some more thunder snow.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Really sticking here even to the roads.

[BLI snowman]

Just ridiculous. I think you northern posters will finally be compensated for your suffering all winter. This is coming together nicely for you guys and the models are starting to converge. 

 

 

This might be one of those relatively rare cases where a low going pretty much right into PDX can get us some snow here just from the sheer precip rates and relatively calm winds. Hopefully we can get in on the fun too, but I suppose we had our fun.

 

Would be kind of nice to score a wet snowfall in an isothermal profile like that. Would round out the snow setup gauntlet this winter. We've had virtually every other type of setup at some point already.

[jcmcgaffey]

Looks like that will be about it though now with the dew point up to 32 and only going up from here. A nice little dusting though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I wont be able to enjoy this storm unless everyone south of Kelso gets absolutely nothing.

sounds like a personal problem 

[Front Ranger]

Would be kind of nice to score a wet snowfall in an isothermal profile like that. Would round out the snow setup gauntlet this winter. We've had virtually every other type of setup at some point already.

 

Except a true Arctic front snowfall.

[BLI snowman]

I wont be able to enjoy this storm unless everyone south of Kelso gets absolutely nothing.

 

Here now, you don't need to feel embarrassed about watching it again

 

[HighlandExperience]

The track of low is absolutely everything... if it passes even slightly south of PDX then you guys could be buried again and have some more thunder snow.

Nothing against Portland but I don't want it going any further south. I'd hate to see us get screwed again.

[seattleweatherguy]

Really sticking here even to the roads.

Nice your snow must been heavier than mine

[BLI snowman]

Except a true Arctic front snowfall.

 

Those don't happen though.

[HighlandExperience]

Quite a few places now around Seattle proper have a light dusting.

[bainbridgekid]

Everything white here now in Mountlake Terrace with solid moderate snow.

 

I could never get tired of this in a million years.

[Perturbed Member]

The track of low is absolutely everything... if it passes even slightly south of PDX then you guys could be buried again and have some more thunder snow.  

 

 

In the fairly ho-hum airmass that PDX will have Sunday, we pretty much always need the  low going south and help from the gorge and a cool Columbia basin to get snow. However with these kind of precip rates and a flat gradient we can go isothermal. This looks a lot like that March 21st 2012 event in Eugene. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017020300/images_d1/s_pcp24.84.0000.gif

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/kpdx.84.0000.snd.gif

 

 

It sure would be amazing if we had a low go  right over PDX in a very unremarkable airmass and produce snow from the Willamette Valley to BC.  Though, even if the low went south another 25-50 miles, you guys would still get  slammed. 

[snow_wizard]

I was seriously going to be happy with 2 to 4 inches... I am so overwhelmed right now I am dizzy

You almost have to think this is for real. All of the models show huge amounts of snow for us. The track the low takes on Sunday is dead on perfect for us. I love the cold backwash that slams in behind the low. A nice little bit of icing on the cake.

 

The ECMWF shows some very impressive precip rates with this thing.

[Perturbed Member]

Would be kind of nice to score a wet snowfall in an isothermal profile like that. Would round out the snow setup gauntlet this winter. We've had virtually every other type of setup at some point already.

 

 

Yeah heavy wet snow can be pretty fun. Relying purely on precip rates for snowfall is pretty much never a slam dunk though. Will be interesting to see what the models do over the next 2 days. The way I see it, any extra snow we get this winter is a nice bonus. 

[snow_wizard]

The NWS can't possibly ignore this now.

[TT-SEA]

The dewpoint at SEA shot up from 5 to 25 in the last hour.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The NWS can't possibly ignore this now.

Agreed, I think the morning AFD might be just a tad different than most we have seen this year.

[seattleweatherguy]

The NWS can't possibly ignore this now.

But they will

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's nice to see the models settling on bringing up the southern low on Sunday. This could easily be a once in a decade sort of event in some areas. The main thing to watch now is how that low tracks and interacts with the secondary low.

[Front Ranger]

The NWS can't possibly ignore this now.

 

The unforecasted snow tonight should help just a bit.

[Front Ranger]

You almost have to think this is for real. All of the models show huge amounts of snow for us. The track the low takes on Sunday is dead on perfect for us. I love the cold backwash that slams in behind the low. A nice little bit of icing on the cake.

 

The ECMWF shows some very impressive precip rates with this thing.

 

Far from a slam dunk, though.

 

Temps still look relatively borderline...slightly warmer and those massive amounts get reduced to just an inch or two.

[bainbridgekid]

Just measured 1/4" here as it slows down to a light flurry.

 

Amazing how much brighter it is outside even with such a light coating. Everything was immediately covered and the roads are all white, so the light from the streetlights is really being reflected well.

 

It's been 2 months since I've seen it snow. I had almost forgotten just how transformative it really is.

[MikeInEverett]

Have almost an inch in some spots here.. Really a pleasant surprise.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The light dusting I got here is all gone.

[Guest Sounder]

You almost have to think this is for real. All of the models show huge amounts of snow for us. The track the low takes on Sunday is dead on perfect for us. I love the cold backwash that slams in behind the low. A nice little bit of icing on the cake.

 

The ECMWF shows some very impressive precip rates with this thing.

It certainly looks very promising, though we really are walking a very fine line here. It wont take a major shift in the track of the low to completely screw us.

 

But hey, our best set ups for producing enormous snow totals are often when we cut it really close like this, so I'm totally fine with the precarious nature of this set up.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Steve pool said the snow we are seeing tonight should be the last as we warm up this weekend. So, don't worry all the snow is about done after tonight. Does this guy even look at models?? Idiot!!!

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Victoria is such a weird place sometimes, the temperature has stuck around 39F but the dewpoint has plummeted to 12F from 19F earlier. All this ahead of an advancing front.

[bainbridgekid]

The dewpoint at SEA shot up from 5 to 25 in the last hour.

It's amazing how quickly the column moistened tonight under that band. 

 

Went from lip chapping dry to snowing in a matter of about 30 minutes.

[Brennan]

Steve pool said the snow we are seeing tonight should be the last as we warm up this weekend. So, don't worry all the snow is about done after tonight. Does this guy even look at models?? Idiot!!!

He reads the NWS zone forecasts lol

[Perturbed Member]

A bunch of freezing rain about to hit PDX right now.

[snow_wizard]

I bet Seattle NWS morning discussion doesn't even discuss snow.

As I said earlier they may be going the superstitious route (don't jinx it) on this one. They know full well the coming pattern is highly likely to produce lowland snow. The ensemble is pretty much unanimous on it too.

[Bryant]

Unpopular opinion, but not a fan of the southward shift on the Euro... definitely not as potent looking up this way anymore. Would be fitting to go from what the 12z models showed this morning to PDX out preforming the area up this way. Just how this winter has been

[bainbridgekid]

6z NAM is only out to hour 57, but Sunday night's low is significantly weaker and further South from the 00z.

 

00z had a closed 997mb low at this point. 6z has it still as more of an open wave at 1005mb.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020306/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_43.png

[bainbridgekid]

Wow. 6z NAM buries Portland and the Willamette Valley and is mainly dry North of Olympia.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020306/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.png

 

The change from the 18z is laughable.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_50.png