February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Unreal. Someone in the puget sound must have pissed off Mother Nature pretty bad back in 2012.

So you've accepted he's right already.

 

Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold.

[ShawniganLake]

So you've accepted he's right already.

 

Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold.

No. I don't think the models have it locked in. What was looking potentially historic for Vancouver island a couple days ago, is looking pretty marginally average now.

[TT-SEA]

So you've accepted he's right already.

 

Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold.

 

Inevitable southward trend has arrived... the theme for the winter.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

Loving the 33 degree rain we had all night. Looks like Portland scores again and we will get screwed. Oh well, nothing better than consistency.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The deformation band has hit, 32F and dumping snow here in Victoria now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Inevitable southward trend has arrived... the theme for the winter.

Yep! I can almost guarantee this is going to bust again for us. Been there done that and the writing is on the wall.

[MossMan]

Snow really coming down here now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snow really coming down here now.

 

Sounds like another busted WRF snow forecast, the Puget Sound wasn't predicted to see any accumulation.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good God almighty - 5 year snow drought or not, you are incredibly fast to jump ship.

When I gotta itch I scratch it. this one is burning like hell.

[Kayla]

Only goes out to Sunday at 4pm but the NAM 3km has had the best track record this winter and it shows the same trend.

 

I left the West Hills about a month early! 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only goes out to Sunday at 4pm but the NAM 3km has had the best track record this winter and it shows the same trend.

 

I left the West Hills about a month early! 

 

kWHALyt - Imgur.jpg

 

That's like 18" here...

[bainbridgekid]

I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good.

3mb stronger than the 6z with the low at hour 54.

 

Definitely a good thing.

[Kayla]

I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good.

 

PDX ground zero...again?!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is definitely trending south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ground zero looks like anywhere above 1000', but I bet the mesoscale models are generous...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS is definitely trending south.

 

It is north of the 06z...

 

12z has excellent low placement.

[TT-SEA]

It is north of the 06z...

 

12z has excellent low placement.

 

 

I am comparing to the 00Z run.   I usually don't compare trends using the 06Z and 18Z run.

[FroYoBro]

The low position looks good, but it is just a little too warm for the lowest levels in Oregon. I also think the energy that stays off the northern coast may influence this problem. 

 

Looks like a big snowstorm above 1,000 feet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks similar to the 2/29/12 event. 

[Bham_Guy]

Steady light to moderate snow with a temp of 28 degrees here now.

[MossMan]

3mb stronger than the 6z with the low at hour 54.

 

Definitely a good thing.

According to Tim...nope. Anyway snowing and blowing here at my 2nd job at sea level!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[ShawniganLake]

29F and up to about 2" here now. Looks nice.

[Brennan]

Snowing here. Dumping. Really coming down. I hope we get a miracle and this doesn't all change to slop later, especially considering the major dumpage late weekend is all being shown way south of Bellingham.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem looks good Albany to Kelso

[Chewbacca Defense]

Listening to a scanner app for Whatcom County, starting to have quite a few issues of drivers struggling to keep the rubber side down.  Temp still dropping at my house...

 

I would love to see this stay as snow all day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Check that GEM looks good for W. WA too

[Deweydog]

Check that GEM looks good for W. WA too

I was about to accuse you of being a meanie.

[Brennan]

Up to an inch here now. Flakes turned really fine. Snow is blowing around. Doesn't FEEL like a rainy day. Guess we'll see

[HighlandExperience]

... And it actually hasn't performed too bad this season.

 

That being said, with how borderline the setup for Sunday/Monday looks, I like Puget Sound chances better than PDX.

Agreed. Temps are very borderline. Gem is actually solid for western wa. Snowy for the early part of the week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well that was disappointing, the band moved out almost as quickly as it started; lasted less than an hour. Some of the recent NAM runs had it in the area for as long as 4~5 hours. This continues a theme of it being painfully difficult to get any sort of sustained precipitation in Victoria. Oh well, maybe next time.

[North_County]

Pretty heavy sideways snow here in Lynden this morning.

[Brennan]

Well that was disappointing, the band moved out almost as quickly as it started; lasted less than an hour. Some of the recent NAM runs had it in the area for as long as 4~5 hours. This continues a theme of it being painfully difficult to get any sort of sustained precipitation in Victoria. Oh well, maybe next time.

Passing through here pretty quickly too. It was fun while it lasted. I guess now it's wait and see what the next round brings. And the EURO...

[Perturbed Member]

12z WRF is showing that PDX begins to develop a nearly isothermal profile as early as late Sunday AM or early afternoon. There is a ton of precip to come after this time too. Might be a bunch of wet snow. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/kpdx.54.0000.snd.gif

[Front Ranger]

Seattle NWS still wouldn't admit in their AM discussion that there was any actual snow in the Puget Sound lowlands last night/early this AM. Only freezing rain and sleet.

[Jesse]

Seattle NWS still wouldn't admit in their AM discussion that there was any actual snow in the Puget Sound lowlands last night/early this AM. Only freezing rain and sleet.

 

They are just looking at alternative facts.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAVGEM seems to have  moved the low south too, not as far as the GFS though which seems to want to give Eugene a snowstorm.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020306/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_12.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020306/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_13.png

[MossMan]

This mornings snow is just a taste test for the real deal coming in a few days!!

[HighlandExperience]

I still feel this track is ideal for western wa. The temps are borderline, and having the low come over northern Oregon will be good for us. Looking forward to the Euro