Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not??? That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members. Lets discuss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain.Yup, I could see that happening. Or maybe a rain to snow transition for us on the back end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 If the HP along the Canadian border could slide east a little slower than currently prog it would benefit a lot more members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 12z NAVY model with a GL bomb... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020212/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not??? That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members. Lets discuss... So professional, such the diplomatic flare you exude Tom Here's the AmWx thread lead-in: "There will be some sort of interesting weather during this period at least." SLIGHT contrast in flavor here vs. there Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind. If I can't get SN, then gimme wind as a consolation Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker. Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well.. Give it another model run and you will have your SE bias. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Surprised how far north the 12z EPS went today... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 18z GFS went north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Holy wind! Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Slower...stronger...farther north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Holy wind! Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts...Really nice wind ingredients no matter the track. I like the chances of a bit of a bowling ball just need it to dig more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Thats a weenie storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 We finally seem to be getting our first bowler of the season but its trending the wrong way! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Low tracks right over head pretty much Shows some decent wrap around snows with 40 mph gusts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Seconday starting to take shape but that one will probably end up south of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south.It's not really that strong of a HP. Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm... Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 It's not really that strong of a HP. Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm... Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.pngYa a storm that size can do funny things in regards to traveling into high pressures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 From NOAA: The plains to Great Lakes system will swing an associated coldfront through the region Sunday, bringing in chances for lightsnow across the area. A brief break in systems is still currentlytimed for Monday. Meanwhile, a complex and more intense area oflow pressure is expected to develop over the north Pacific andcentral Plains Monday. This system continues to bear watching, asit could generate a significant mix of winter weather conditionsfor all of SE Michigan, likely beginning Tuesday morning andcontinuing into Thursday. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 18z GEFS didn't budge much and have way more 970's... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 It's not really that strong of a HP. Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm... Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png Fujiwara? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run??? Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 GRR afd is the most interesting read I can remember..Answers my question as why this is modeled so strong without any classic phase job between tht streams. This may be historic for the lucky peeps who get it. LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)Issued at 323 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 It is looking more and more likely that there will be a storm in theGreat Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally, we anticipatesignificant impacts in the Tuesday into Wednesday (maybe Thursday)time frame. We currently are concerned about significant impactsfrom strong winds with lake effect snow and temperatures fallinginto the teens by Wednesday afternoon. Significant ice accumulationswill also be possible in some areas. The GFS and ensemble means of the GEFS and 00z ECMWF (ECE) all showthe track of the surface low through central to southern LowerMichigan. Since 01/12Z, the deterministic ECMWF has kept the trackof the storm south of I-96. Also since 01/12Z, GFS operational runshave been tracking the storm successively farther south whileremaining farther north than most of the recent ECWMF runs. TheCanadian model has been all over the place with the track of thissystem so I am not buying that 12z run of the GEMS for the stormtrack. It should also be noted that the GFS parallel run issignificantly farther south than the GFS operational runs. This storm is associated with the storm I have been writing aboutover the past few days - i.e., the one that came out of China,crosses Japan, and then moves north from the western Pacific towardsKamchatka. The storms builds that huge blocking upper level highover the Bering Sea this coming weekend. Some of that storm`s energygoes under the blocking high and merges with a storm digging southoff the Coast of British Columbia. The storm from British Columbiaby itself merges with a closed upper low off the coast of Californiaprior to the western Pacific system reaching that area. Thissuggests this storm may have the merged energy of at least 3 systemswhen it crosses the Rocky Mountains early next week. What seems tobe modulating the track of this storm is just how much digging thereis on the down stream side of the blocking high. Another aspect tothis is there is still the northern stream system (polar vortex???)which is being driven south from the northern arctic. It does notseem to me the southern stream storm really merges with thatnorthern stream, even as it tracks up the east coast of Canada latenext week. The harder part to forecast is what happens Tuesday as the mainsystem comes out into the Great Lakes. The operational ECMWF doesnot seem to bring the surface temperature above freezing along I-96and north (GRR east) Tuesday. This could mean a significant icingevent. Even if we do go to rain in GRR, areas north and east of herecould see over a 1/4 inch of ice from this storm. Heavy snowfall ispossible Tuesday north of the freezing rain area. So, bottom line,we still do not know the track of this storm yet but it seems clearthere will be a storm in the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Thelake effect will likely continue into Thursday. We will continue to monitor this storm over the next few days tobetter ascertain possible impacts to our area. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm?Read that afd. With so many moving parts to this scenario, I would say this is no where near settled. Chicago still in the chase, at least for nice impacts if not feet of SN. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run??? Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you hazards_d3_7_contours.png Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Thats a nice windmaker if nothing else once again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Still showing nice back end snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Still showing nice back end snowYou do well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm rooting for 60 degrees by my birthday. Feb 23rd. Get this winter over with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Madison rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Ukie and GGEM much farther south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Ggem surface low runs through Iowa then into eastern Wisconsin. Track looks pretty locked in. Iowa has been the low pressure magnet this year. Just about every decent storm this year has had the surface low track right through the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 GEFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.