Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Every single short range model is making seem like the primary severe threat is here and not Iowa, where they are saying the Enhanced Risk will bust. I noticed this as well. Everyone is talking up the severe chance in Iowa, but the HRRR and 3k NAM show nothing developing in much of the "enhanced" area in central/eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 usually only follow in the Winter--- but this winter sucked so here I'am in C.IA hoping we get a show later today... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 SPC update has shifted the enhanced area west out of eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 SPC update has shifted the enhanced area west out of eastern Iowa. Not surprising. The main LP is further west it looks like. HRRR continuing to show some monster development out here. Thinking OMA/LNK are in a prime spot for some big time storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Nice Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Pretty much every model is saying that LNK will steal the show with a supercell of some sort. Hope everything leaves my coverage area before my 6:30 test! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!! Got any links to videos of that storm? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 DVN has a new update stating what we're seeing on the models. They have low confidence regarding storm formation over in this area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Got any links to videos of that storm? All my videos are crappy :/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 All my videos are crappy :/That's dope! You should put it up in the photo contest thread. Sweet shot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Watches should be coming soon........ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0519.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 All my videos are crappy :/ That's dope! You should put it up in the photo contest thread. Sweet shot! That is a pretty sweet pic!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Recent runs of the HRRR have become much more enthusiastic about a good line of storms making it into eastern Iowa late this evening. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Watching these storms bubble up and move towards us makes me feel like a kid on Christmas. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 Thanks guys! I'm at work til 6 so hopefully it doesn't get here til I'm off! Doesn't look like the case though as these storms are flying. Looks nasty outside from my view. One of these things is going tornadic soon I can just tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 #LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 #LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.Looks like it's going to get rocked to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 #LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.Definitely does not look like that right now lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 that cell looks kinda meh TBH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 that cell looks kinda meh TBHIt was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 #LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.Hey! I was wrong! Got some nice sized hail here. Glad things filled in before they got here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 It was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet.I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms. To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 19, 2017 Report Share Posted April 19, 2017 I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms. To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure.I live in a highrise with a view to the West. I can tell you that is 100% true, especially when shelf clouds roll in. Sunsets are also quite pleasant. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 I'm already home. What a waste of a decent setup. Here's why none of the storms dropped tornadoes. They were all on or slightly behind the pneumonia cold front that blasted through. I went to Lincoln and then drifted north to be closer to the warm front. Watched the storms form from Ceresco to southwest of Lincoln. Could tell they were elevated but had hopes the Lincoln storm would be able to move off the front when it turned east after moving northeast. No luck and by the time I got back down to the storm it was weakening. Didn't even take any pics! Oh well, still early in the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Huge bust for everyone including SPC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Huge bust for everyone including SPCNo tornado does not equal a bust. The hail here at UNL city campus was quite impressive. Not to mention the one moment where warnings stretched from Waverly, NE to Concordia, KS. Plus, weren't you in a warning at one point in Hickman? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 1 tornado in Carroll Cty , IA--- and really not that many hail/wind reports from an enhanced threat. BUST big time. Probably because I got on for this summer stuff.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Might become the largest out break of the season next Thu-Sat as models are showing a pretty strong system coming out of the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Might become the largest out break of the season next Thu-Sat as models are showing a pretty strong system coming out of the Rockies. Some pretty strong wording from the SPC for their Day 8 outlook. I'll be in Vancouver this week on a work trip and will be returning on Friday, so hopefully it holds off until the afternoon so I can get out there and chase! ...Friday/Day 8... The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S., developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region. This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places the greatest chance of severe weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks.This system is correlating with the last significant mult-day severe wx outbreak on Feb 28th/March 1st...I remember all the Tornado's we saw in IL that day in late Feb. Given the time of year now, I'd imagine the atmosphere will be juiced up to produce some pretty good chances for ya'll storm chasers! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 12z Euro looks mighty strong and favorable for a huge severe wx threat next Friday into Saturday...the system on Friday may hit the same areas that were targeted back on Feb 28th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png Next Sat system will need to slow down a bit and head farther west in order for NE folks to get in on the action... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 I think our chances are going to increase. This last system moved NW quite a bit in just a couple of days, I'd think these next weekend will follow. Either way, this is going to be huge from the looks of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2017 Both Euro/GFS now showing more blocking and colder air infiltrating the Plains/Midwest with next weeks system. It may even snow in some places! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 22, 2017 Report Share Posted April 22, 2017 This was from the 0Z GFS last night. Some of these numbers are CRAZY! Storms would be moving very fast too which is bad for advance warning times.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 22, 2017 Report Share Posted April 22, 2017 the 06z was shades of this week. A surface low develops out ahead of the potential big day friday(GFS shows thursday, but it tends to have a progressive bias, and I believe that it will slow down towards friday with time) However, unlike previous runs, the early wave on tue/wed amplifies and this causes CAA to really interfere with lee cyclogenesis of the next wave. The product of this is now the friday wave is shoved further much south and 5mb weaker. This results in a much less impressive setup overall, but still a relatively decent one, if introduced capping concerns are alleviated. 12z GFS looks more or less like the 06z run. Regardless, potential is 100% there for one of the bigger days this season has seen so far, perhaps the biggest if cards are played right. EDIT: After the 12z run came in, it is still certainly suppressed, but still gets the job done. The setup is still significantly further south, but the axis of backed winds out ahead of the surface low is much wider and is deeper with a 990-992mb surface low over west texas. Still not 00z weenie material but better than the 06z. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2017 Based on what I'm seeing, both GFS/EURO pushing the severe wx threat farther S/SE. Today's 12z GFS has shunted it down towards the southern Midwest/Plains which is similar to last nights Euro run. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 22, 2017 Report Share Posted April 22, 2017 Here's the 12Z GFS today. Definitely shifted a bit south than last nights 0Z run. Numbers actually are higher though than the run last night. 1km SRH= 500+ and 3k SRH 900+ and 6km bulk shear of 87kts!!Just further for me to drive I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.