May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I really hope so!

Troll.

[Phil]

...I hope so too.

[stuffradio]

Troll.  

 

 

Troll.

Trolls

[Jesse]

Troll.

 

He absolutely begs for it this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

I am definitely going to cheer for Jesse and Phil's misery more specifically now.  

 

Can't wait for the miserable heat and humidity to engulf the swamp of DC.  

 

And summer will probably be just perfect here.   Maybe a warm, dry fall to follow?   

[Phil]

Can't wait for the miserable heat and humidity to engulf the swamp of DC.

Screw you.

[Jesse]

I am definitely going to cheer for Jesse's  misery more specifically now.  

 

Can't wait for the miserable heat and humidity to engulf the swamp of DC.  

 

And summer will probably be just perfect here.   Maybe a warm, dry fall to follow?   

 

And this would change things how?

[Front Ranger]

Benign trolls.

[Phil]

Benign trolls.

Benign moderates.

[stuffradio]

Benign moderates.

Benign posts

[BLI snowman]

Anomalies scare me greatly.

[Tyler Mode]

So I was just looking at the temperature in May for the last 6 years in Battle Ground.

 

This graph shows the high temperatures.

The top line is the warmest it's been for any given day, the middle line is the average, and the bottom line shows the coldest high temperature during the 6 years period.

 

Every warmest day before the 15th is above 80, but that next 1.5 weeks we can't seem to get really consistent warm weather...looks the same this month!

 

Also, notice the downward trend in the average temp, very backward for a month that clearly should be trending up.

 

[TT-SEA]

 

So I was just looking at the temperature in May for the last 6 years in Battle Ground.

 

This graph shows the high temperatures.

The top line is the warmest it's been for any given day, the middle line is the average, and the bottom line shows the coldest high temperature during the 6 years period.

 

Every warmest day before the 15th is above 80, but that next 1.5 weeks we can't seem to get really consistent warm weather...looks the same this month!

 

Also, notice the downward trend in the average temp, very backward for a month that clearly should be trending up.

 

 

 

Interesting... just noticed that average high at SEA actually dips between 5/19 -  5/22 as well.  

[James Jones]

 

So I was just looking at the temperature in May for the last 6 years in Battle Ground.

 

This graph shows the high temperatures.

The top line is the warmest it's been for any given day, the middle line is the average, and the bottom line shows the coldest high temperature during the 6 years period.

 

Every warmest day before the 15th is above 80, but that next 1.5 weeks we can't seem to get really consistent warm weather...looks the same this month!

 

Also, notice the downward trend in the average temp, very backward for a month that clearly should be trending up.

 

 

I noticed this too. May 2013 in particular tracked very similarly to Octobers 2014 and 2015.

[James Jones]

Interesting... just noticed that average high at SEA actually dips between 5/19 -  5/22 as well.  

 

What data are you looking at? Looks like the average high ticks up from 65 to 66 on the 20th.

[Timmy]

12z gfs is stupid wet over the next week... but I want to take the boat out! #firstworldproblems

[TT-SEA]

12z gfs is stupid wet over the next week... but I want to take the boat out! #firstworldproblems

 

Yeah... ECMWF looks terrible as well.   

 

The weekend is a total washout and well beyond.  

[epiceast]

Anomalies scare me greatly.

Average weather, average rain, average clouds, average temperature, average sun angle every day.

 

And one week of snow year. That's all we want in our PNW climate!!!

[TT-SEA]

71 degrees and sunny here... just perfect.

[stuffradio]

Tomorrow looks like the last dry day in the foreseeable future, but the precip amounts look pretty minuscule on the 12Z ensembles. We could finally be heading into the period of only receiving mist or drizzle whenever we get our rain now. It's perfect for my gardening. I have been going through a 60' long row covered with tons of weeds, and I have been weeding it to recover all the strawberry plants that are hidden within the weeds.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Finally, some May-like weather returns!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017050918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

[TT-SEA]

Finally, some May-like weather returns!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017050918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

You will end up with .10 while I get 5 inches.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You will end up with .10 while I get 5 inches.

 

Hopefully we both do better than that, summer's just around the corner, we need some in reserves.

[Timmy]

Finally, some May-like weather returns!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017050918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

Nice work! You have successfully out-trolled the bunch!

[Jesse]

Nice work! You have successfully out-trolled the bunch!

Screw rain!

[Jesse]

Been a gorgeous last few days. I really don't see much to complain about.

[TT-SEA]

Been a gorgeous last few days. I really don't see much to complain about.

He is clearly trolling. Wild guess here... but after the wettest winter in history and the wettest Feb-Apr in history we really don't need to be begging for rain already on May 9th.

 

It will come and it will stick around for several days. It sucks... but its the way it goes. Be nice to have one day of rain and then go back to this weather but it rarely works that way in the spring.

[TT-SEA]

In a wee bit of irony here... I am watering tonight.    This despite the lawn still being more sponge-like than I have ever seen.   I need to fertilize again and need to get it absorbed slowly before the rains return and wash it away.    The neighbors walked by and could not believe I had a sprinkler on.  

 

[Timmy]

In a wee bit of irony here... I am watering tonight. This despite the lawn still being more sponge-like than I have ever seen. I need to fertilize again and need to get it absorbed slowly before the rains return and wash it away. The neighbors walked by and could not believe I had a sprinkler on.

 

Who does the gardening there? It's beautiful and I would love to have mine look like that, but don't have the time.

[Front Ranger]

He is clearly trolling. Wild guess here... but after the wettest winter in history and the wettest Feb-Apr in history we really don't need to be begging for rain already on May 9th.

 

It will come and it will stick around for several days. It sucks... but its the way it goes. Be nice to have one day of rain and then go back to this weather but it rarely works that way in the spring.

Kinda went that way most of the last few springs.

[Front Ranger]

Who does the gardening there? It's beautiful and I would love to have mine look like that, but don't have the time.

His name is Juan.

[Jesse]

Who does the gardening there? It's beautiful and I would love to have mine look like that, but don't have the time.

Let's just say there's a reason Tim's against the wall.

[TT-SEA]

Who does the gardening there? It's beautiful and I would love to have mine look like that, but don't have the time.

Mostly my wife... who also works full time. She takes after her mother. She loves being outside and gardening. I help her and do the lawn work. Its pretty low maintenance at this point.

[TT-SEA]

His name is Juan.

Its a labor of love. We have never hired anyone to help.

[Deweydog]

In a wee bit of irony here... I am watering tonight. This despite the lawn still being more sponge-like than I have ever seen. I need to fertilize again and need to get it absorbed slowly before the rains return and wash it away. The neighbors walked by and could not believe I had a sprinkler on.

 

You're f*cked.

[TT-SEA]

Kinda went that way most of the last few springs.

No... we had two week stretches with daily rain here in both May and June last year.

[TT-SEA]

You're f*cked.

Rain going to wash it away again?

[Deweydog]

Rain going to wash it away again?

Just like the itsy bitsy spider.

[TT-SEA]

Just like the itsy bitsy spider.

Possibly.

[Front Ranger]

Its a labor of love. We have never hired anyone to help.

Any juan?