May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

If you don't like what the Euro shows in the long range, just wait another 12 hours! I'm sure it will dramatically change again.

 

 

Maybe.

[TT-SEA]

My son is having a blast skiing at Mt Bachelor.    He just sent a video of him doing the pond skimming now.   Its cross between skiing and wakeboarding.   

[Jesse]

My son is having a blast skiing at Mt Bachelor. He just sent a video of him doing the pond skimming now. Its cross between skiing and wakeboarding.

Oh to live the lives of the bourgeois.

[TT-SEA]

Oh to live the lives of the bourgeois.

 

Cost him $25 to participate today.  

[Phil]

Wow, the EPS control run is mega-troughy, from day three all the way through week two. Amazing to see the model struggles with this pattern.

[Jesse]

Decent marine push occurring tonight. PDX is sitting at 78 while both McMinnville and Longview are 61 with onshore breezes.

 

Thermal trough must be draped NW to SE across the I-5 corridor, curving westward somewhere in Lewis County or thereabouts. Seattle and Olympia were both warmer than Portland today, while Bellingham was almost as warm, and warmer than Salem or Eugene.

[ShawniganLake]

83 here yesterday and 84 today. Pretty much perfect summer weather.

[Jesse]

83 here yesterday and 84 today. Pretty much perfect summer weather.

 

How does that compare to your record highs this time of year?

[Jesse]

Had a nice afternoon out at Steigerwald Lake wildlife refuge today.

[TT-SEA]

83 here yesterday and 84 today. Pretty much perfect summer weather.

 

 

Absolutely perfect weekend.   

 

My parents are down from Bellingham and we spent the day on Lake Sammamish.   Water temp was up to 72 today.

[ShawniganLake]

How does that compare to your record highs this time of year?

Records are;

86 yesterday

91 today

88 tomorrow.

 

So it was warm but not threatening any records.

[Timmy]

Absolutely perfect weekend.

 

My parents are down from Bellingham and we spent the day on Lake Sammamish. Water temp was up to 72 today.

Wow the life of a rich a hole's parents.

[TT-SEA]

Wow the life of a rich a hole's parents.

Have you been out on your new boat this weekend... a hole?

 

Our boat is a piece of crap comparitively. We just like being on the water.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent marine push occurring tonight. PDX is sitting at 78 while both McMinnville and Longview are 61 with onshore breezes.

 

Thermal trough must be draped NW to SE across the I-5 corridor, curving westward somewhere in Lewis County or thereabouts. Seattle and Olympia were both warmer than Portland today, while Bellingham was almost as warm, and warmer than Salem or Eugene.

I could see the low clouds spilling over the coast range on my drive home tonight.

[Timmy]

Have you been out on your new boat this weekend... a hole?

 

Our boat is a piece of crap comparitively. We just like being on the water.

have I been off of it is a better question

[Timmy]

This weekend disappointing busted... -10f from today's and tomorrow looks to be worse... still a great weekend, but nowhere near where it should have been.

[TT-SEA]

have I been off of it is a better question

 

Very nice.  

[TT-SEA]

This weekend disappointing busted... -10f from today's and tomorrow looks to be worse... still a great weekend, but nowhere near where it should have been.

 

Mid 80s and sunny is about as good as it gets around here for Memorial Day weekend.  

[Timmy]

Mid 80s and sunny is about as good as it gets around here for Memorial Day weekend.

Hard to complain, but a busted forecast is a busted forecast.

 

That river water is still icy and I don't hate 90f so I can actually jump in for a few seconds and not freeze.

[TT-SEA]

If you don't like what the Euro shows in the long range, just wait another 12 hours! I'm sure it will dramatically change again.

Good call. Next week looks way warmer on the 00Z ECMWF. Now your turn to be happy with the 12Z run tomorrow.

[Phil]

Good call. Next week looks way warmer on the 00Z ECMWF. Now your turn to be happy with the 12Z run tomorrow.

Don't look at the GFS or CMC.

[TT-SEA]

Don't look at the GFS or CMC.

Already did. Model chaos.

[Phil]

Already did. Model chaos.

True, but even the ECMWF features the -AAM tendency and crashes the ridge after just two days. That doesn't mean it's correct, but these jet retractions (following analous extensions) climatologically favor an offshore ridge placement due to frictional/drag torque effects from the North American high terrain.

[TT-SEA]

True, but even the ECMWF features the -AAM tendency and crashes the ridge after just two days.

 

The jet retractions climatologically place the ridge offshore due to frictional torque effects from the North American high terrain.

 

The 00Z ECMWF builds the ridge on day 8 and it look just fine on day 10 with no crash on that run.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052900/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[Phil]

I'm looking at the parallel version on stormvista. Sorry, should have clarified there.

[Phil]

FWIW, the model chaos isn't ending for at least another four days, in my opinion.

[Jesse]

This weekend disappointing busted... -10f from today's and tomorrow looks to be worse... still a great weekend, but nowhere near where it should have been.

Maybe tomorrow's marine push will trend east.

[Jesse]

Already down to 58 at PDX with some spotty clouds moving in. There will probably be a solid marine layer by morning. Yesterday morning it missed us.

[Timmy Supercell]

Tomorrow begins my numerous chances for storms. Most of this week hopefully there will be convection in the area. But tomorrow shall be the highlight as of now.

[Phil]

The 00z EPS is much troughier in the d11-15 range. Also still struggling to warm the high latitudes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6B3C2E20-79F1-4AA4-9675-936A30C2EC47_zps7x6uncur.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B6A63B15-DBCD-4EFA-955F-0A83D954DDFE_zpsgkdcraqu.png

[luminen]

59F and sunny here. Gonna be a hot day.

[TT-SEA]

Marine layer never made it here... beautiful morning.

[Jesse]

Thick marine layer here...beautiful morning.

[TT-SEA]

Thick marine layer here...beautiful morning.

 

As I was writing my post... I perfectly predicted your response.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous drizzly morning!

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous drizzly morning!

 

Awaiting the blueberry cobbler that I am cooking...  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Awaiting the blueberry cobbler that I am cooking...

 

No clouds there?! Wow! 53 and totally socked in here.

 

Blueberry cobbler is my favorite.

[TT-SEA]

No clouds there?! Wow! 53 and totally socked in here.

 

Blueberry cobbler is my favorite.

Clouds never made it... 67 here now.

 

Tomorrow will be like that here... but timing is everything on a holiday weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks like its heading towards the warm and ridgy scenario for next week.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear skies and 69F here. You can definitely feel a bit more of a sea breeze in the air today though.