Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 I'm hearing the gardens/lawns need a drink back home...12z GEFS signaling a very wet pattern Week 2. This weekend will be two weeks without rain and we may not get much next week, either. Add to that the upcoming scorcher. We are going to need the second half of June to come through. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 8, 2017 Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Folks in the Plains and Midwest may be flirting with the "century mark" on Sunday...Euro high rez showing pockets near 100F! You can see where the much needed moisture over eastern Oklahoma has helped to keep temperatures cooler than surrounding areas. I love this season so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 8, 2017 Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now read an article after posting that that said the exact same thing I did. Illustrates it pretty well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Latest JMA suggesting an active central CONUS for the most part this month...upper level pattern setting up a battle zone as troughs swing in from the PAC NW. This is symbolic of this year's LRC pattern. This is a neat map of the world being forecast from the JMA. Antarctic looks mighty cold during their Winter! Another big year for Ice Gains??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 NASA's early Winter guess??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season5.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 The Heat is on! Interesting history of 90 day stretches this early in the season... CHICAGOSince 1872, only nine years have had four or more consecutivedays in the 90s prior to the midpoint of June (on or before June15). The most recent was 18 years ago on June 8-11, 1999. Theearliest on record was May 3-6, 1949, while the longest earlyseason stretch was 9 days from May 16-24, 1977.Years with 4+ consecutive 90 degree days prior to June`s midpoint:1920, 1921, 1934, 1949, 1956, 1962, 1977, 1988, and 1999.It should be noted that early season stretches of just 3consecutive 90 degree days are much more common. The most recentwas June 9-11, 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 Impressive heat is being forecast for DSM with back-2-back 100's Sun/Mon. If this was July/Aug it would feel even hotter with mature crops causing transpiration of moisture back into the air. I'll take my 105F/36F today and call it a day! If this pattern cycles through in early August, I can see some impressive heat return again and a pretty large Anti-Cyclonic HP forming in the southern Plains giving the time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 9, 2017 Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 The Heat is on! Yep, but not the moisture Actually saw periodic showers this morning, but looking back home in Marshall I'd call it another "tease event". Even if the gauge missed half, well you get the picture. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 Yep, but not the moisture Actually saw periodic showers this morning, but looking back home in Marshall I'd call it another "tease event". Even if the gauge missed half, well you get the picture. 20170609 KRMY qpf joking right..PNGThis heat wave will certainly dry out the region and I'd imagine the grass will start to turn brown in spots??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted June 9, 2017 Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 22 months in a row of above average temps after June is done for Omaha. Better get used to it I guess! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 9, 2017 Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 Some clouds today, but heat is on its way! Full blown sun and warmth coming. A heatwave is looking more and more likely for lots on this forum. Turned on my sprinklers for the first time this season 2 days ago. It felt good seeing them watering my lawn. Its been awhile. (Gotta watch that water bill though. ) 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 10, 2017 Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 Not weather related at all but very proud to have been a part of the group of guys that helped to create, machine, paint and build the rifles in this video. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oOaHbXW3HAc 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 Will nature balance out the extremes this month?? From record heat this week into next week in the upper Plains/Midwest to a possible big down turn in temps Week 2-3?? It's on the table. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170609.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 10, 2017 Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 I may not ever see 90º this month. There's a day coming up where it could be close but I don't think it will get there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 Official start of Summer is looking chilly on the 21st if the ensembles keep hanging on to the amplified pattern week 2. Enjoy the heat for those who like it. Pattern is gonna flip hard I think as the month rolls on. It'll be time (if my work gets done) to head home before the real torch begins out here just before Fathers Day weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 I have not seen any media outlets or circles talking about this but I've been diving into the Northern Hemisphere sea ice and comparing it to previous years. If you look at the graph below, something very interesting stands out and it is rather significant if you ask me. Notice the map below showing the global sea ice anomaly from 1979 to present day. In 2016, there was an enormous drop in global sea ice which actually started mid 2015 as the super nino developed and the PAC ocean torched as well as others around the globe. Pay attention to the drop in 2016 (off the charts). It has never done this during the satellite era. The AGW crowd would be watering at their mouths, however, what we have seen in a very short period of time is astounding. Look at how fast the recovery has been as we closed out 2017. It has shot out of a canon and I believe this is part of the overall reversal in the negative global sea ice trend which began in late 2012. Many scientists believe this was the early stages of the new trend in global temps. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Interestingly, Newfoundland has had a bad start to their fishing season as there is way to much ice to go out to sea. http://globalnews.ca/video/3501076/packed-sea-ice-prevent-newfoundland-fishermen-from-starting-season Look what happened in 2016 for the Arctic Basin...there is no other year you can compare to the spike in ice coverage since 1979. Nearly every region (if not all) showed a significant spike in 2016. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.mask.gif http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.1.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.12.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.5.jpg With the Antarctic having a very cold start to Winter and the Arctic experiencing a cooler than normal summer so far, this year is going to be rather interesting in terms of global sea ice coverage and the years moving forward. Interesting times ahead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Summer conditions indeed. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 I forgot which thread we spoke about the correlation between solar minimums and volcanoes/earthquake but I'll post this video here. This guy exaggerates sometimes but overall makes good points. https://youtu.be/z19UsP9gKzw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Little Rock is running a streak now for latest 90 since the 1930s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!!Screenshot_20170612-110422.pngI'd love to be sitting underneath that rain shaft right now...just got out of the gym doing some fasted-cardio! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 As official summer kicks in, nature cools off those areas which have been torching...00z EPS 6-10... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 First time we are able to take a glance into the CFSv2's take into next Winter using the CPC's weeklies. Here are the SST/700mb/Temp/Precip maps... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Lately, the CFSv2 has been showing consistent runs of a possible NE PAC ridge in Oct/Nov reminiscent to the elusive "blob" we have seen nicknamed from the '13-'14 season. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd4.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd5.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Dont be teasing me with that 13-14 talk again Ha! Just pointing out what its showing. I'm interested to see if the JAMSTEC later this week holds its course with a cold winter for a lot of the CONUS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol.I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ! Heading back soon though. Prob after this weekend sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again. At least you stand a better chance (once again) to get doused by evening storms that spring up along the front. Marshall looks like swing-n-a-miss 3-peat Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70" I'd love to get something like this nice cell I spied at lunch all the way from St. Joe that's down by S. Bend Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June??? Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 After a hot and humid 95, winds have turned to the east and cooled things down to 78. Really nice break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June??? Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O. Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ! Heading back soon though. Prob after this weekend sometime.Gotta love this evening's hazards map, freeze warnings surrounded by excessive heat warnings! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O. Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th Was off on that date, was May 8th. Still, 36 days is too long. As testament to how much rain had fallen up to that point, my back yard (that gets more shade) was still green, lush, and thick when I cut it just before the rain last evening. I had let it go due to the heat over the weekend, so it was a full 8 days since I mowed. Anyways, that's pretty amazing to go that long sans decent rain with my sandy soil and still be growing so well. Actually had a second round of rain for an hour this morning just after I left for work. Drought CANCEL! Thank goodness - hate droughts 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 For 3 runs in a row, the JAMSTEC is still illustrating a cold winter for at least 2/3's of the nation. The temp alignment seems to suggest a lot of blocking near Greenland with a NW/SE orientation to the cold pool. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif This time, could the PAC jet be shoved farther south this season??? So Cal/4 corners signaling very wet/active. Similar to what the CFSv2 is showing. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif I like the SST configuration in the N PAC...cold pool NW of Hawaii with a ring of warmth along NW NAMER right when the LRC develops. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jun2017.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Saw this post by a met alluding to striking similarities on the JAMSTEC's winter run comparing it to 2006-2007. Blocking near Greenland with similar SST's in the PAC (warmer west/central PAC). Edit: I think the only difference was the SST configuration in the N PAC for this upcoming winter is suggesting more cold than in 2006-2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 It's interesting to note, that over the next 2 years (FWIW), the JAMSTEC is not signaling any warm ENSO event which would aid in the overall cooling of the planet as we approach the next solar minimum. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif By next Winter, a lot of the oceans covering the globe will have cooled off quite a bit and especially down near Antarctica. Likely a response to the cold winter they are having now. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif Here is a map from today showing the extent of warm waters south of the equator...and you can argue north of the equator in the N PAC... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 We just received our first rain in 18 days as a little disturbance passing through the state fired a line of storms just before reaching CR. I picked up a nice half inch, enough to give all the plants a decent soak and fill the rain barrel. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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