Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Real numbers to critique! Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest. Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX. Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT. J/A/S @: SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0 PDX Low: 68 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 SEA: 1.3,/1.1/2.6PDX: 1.1/0.9/2.2OLM: 0.9/0.6/1.8EUG: 1.0/0.5/1.9DCA: 2.2/3.0/2.8 BDN (Bend) 1.4/1.0/1.8 PDX low: 67 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 SEA: 1.4/1.5/2.4 PDX: 1.1/1.5/1.9 OLM: 1.0/1.2/1.8 EUG: 1.9/2.0/2.0 DCA: 0.5/-0.5/1.0 PDX low: 66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Real numbers to critique! Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest. Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX. Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT. J/A/S @: SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0 PDX Low: 68 So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer? And every month from May - September above normal? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 PDX: 1.9/7.8/-0.2SEA: 2.1/8.3/0.3OLM: 1.1/6.4/-0.4EUG: 0.7/5.8/-1.7DCA: 2.2/3.6/4.9 PDX's warmest low: 76 on 8/22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer? And every month from May - September above normal?I'm factoring in the hotspot. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I'm factoring in the hotspot. Why is DC always running way warmer than normal? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Why is DC always running way warmer than normal?Another hotspot. DCA has become SEA on steroids. Especially at night. Plus the pattern this summer is clearly a warm one for this area. https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/DCA:9:US 5-minute observations below. Even with record-low dewpoints this week, we've struggled to drop below 70*F at night. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDCA Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx Interesting. You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland: 1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves 2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave 3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month.Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways.DCA actually sees fewer 90+ days than most places in June thanks to the cooler water. They often see more in September than in June for the same reason (warmer water). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Interesting. You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps. Feel free to throw your hat into the ring. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 J/A/S @:SEA: 1.1/2.1/1.0PDX: -0.3/1.8/1.7OLM: -0.1/1.9/0.9EUG: 0.8/2.3/1.9DCA: 2.2/2.8/1.8PDX Low: 67 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 0.6/0.3/2.40.8/-0.1/2.20.5/-0.7/1.91.1/-0.4/2.94/3/0 65 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 0.6/0.3/2.40.8/-0.1/2.20.5/-0.7/1.91.1/-0.4/2.94/3/0 65So average to coolish August and warm September? Any reasoning or just a guess? Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 I'll just stick with what I put here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1560-summer-2017-predictions/ Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 I'll just stick with what I put here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1560-summer-2017-predictions/So, you're not going to put actual numbers up? #noballs 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 So, you're not going to put actual numbers up? #noballs Eh. We're already a month into summer. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Eh. We're already a month into summer.The forecast is for JAS. Boc boc boc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 The forecast is for JAS. Boc boc bocYep. He leads a charade against my forecast, yet refuses to give numbers of his own. Such a wuss. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 The forecast is for JAS. Boc boc boc Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.Pathetic. Either put numbers up, or don't critique my forecasts again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.Hard numbers are easier to grade. Also makes it more difficult for a spinmaster such as yourself to make a wrong forecast seem right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Pathetic. Either put numbers up, or don't critique my forecasts again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Hard numbers are easier to grade. When was the last time a contest was graded? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 When was the last time a contest was graded?I'll grade it, don't worry about that. Please put up some numbers. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 When was the last time a contest was graded?If it matters so much to you you should step up to the plate once and awhile. I've graded several. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 I prefer to stick with the summer forecasts made before the summer pattern became established. Jared Phil Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 June to date. Not exactly a good call by either of us across the lower 48. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/01EE353D-62B3-4E02-A8FB-B15320FFE453_zpstcdwopmn.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 I prefer to stick with the summer forecasts made before the summer pattern became established.You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A. You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop your little act. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A. You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop the act. Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants. It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Summer temperature anomalies are deadly serious business. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Summer temperature anomalies are deadly serious business. Indeed. There is rumored Mafia involvement as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants. It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have....You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd. I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward. He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd. I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward. He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward. So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this. I'll get nothing out of it. If anything, I'll probably cool off and forget about the whole thing in a few weeks. Still, I don't like the guy. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 I'll grade it, don't worry about that. Please put up some numbers. wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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