July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

MRF-MOS has 112 for Eugene on Wednesday based on the 00Z GFS. If it wasn't a 1980's algorithm driving the guidance I would give it more thought, but that's still pretty insane. I don't think I've seen numbers like that for the Willamette Valley on any numerical guidance before. PDX is up to 107 for Thursday, from 104 on the 12Z.

 

 

Pretty insane.   The ridge look decent at the 500mb level... but it does not strike me as something that would result in the hottest temperatures ever recorded for many spots.

 

MOS guidance has SEA peaking at 100 on Thursday.   

 

And Bellingham might just get above the normal high for Portland at this time of year... but just barely.  

[wx_statman]

Pretty insane.   The ridge look decent at the 500mb level... but it does not strike me as something that would result in the hottest temperatures ever recorded for many spots.

 

MOS guidance has SEA peaking at 100 on Thursday.   

 

And Bellingham might just get above the normal high for Portland at this time of year... but just barely.  

 

That icebox has never even been above the mid-90's. Natural air conditioning.

[Bryant]

That icebox has never even been above the mid-90's. Natural air conditioning.

Thank goodness.

[ShawniganLake]

True. Many of those towns are evacuated several times a summer on average.

We just got evacuated.

[Jesse]

We just got evacuated.

D**n.

[Jesse]

Models seem to be extending the peak of this event, delaying any cooling.

[ShawniganLake]

No... but there will be fires and there be people evacuated on the dry side of the mountains in the summer. Its not like its been catastrophic... it was still very wet last month. And will be very wet again in a couple months.

Most area burned in BC in the past 56 years and it's still July. 50 000 people evacuated. 41 homes burned so far. Maybe not catastrophic yet but it's been pretty serious. With the forecast heat wave things could get worse.

[TT-SEA]

Most area burned in BC in the past 56 years and it's still July. 50 000 people evacuated. 41 homes burned so far. Maybe not catastrophic yet but it's been pretty serious. With the forecast heat wave things could get worse.

Its definitely going to get worse this week. I wonder why its been so bad? It has not been that hot and we are coming off record setting rain. I know in SoCal... excessive winter rains usually make the next fire season much worse.

[ShawniganLake]

I Drove thru Clinton BC this afternoon, less than 1 hr later it was evacuated from an approaching forest fire.

This picture was taken yesterday overlooking the valley that the town of Clinton is located.

 

 

Thick black smoke over our cabin at Watch Lake yesterday evening

[ShawniganLake]

Its definitely going to get worse this week. I wonder why its been so bad? It has not been that hot and we are coming off record setting rain. I know in CA that excessive winter rains usually make the next fire season much worse.

Central BC has been dry for most of the year. But on the whole, a rainless June in the interior is a bad thing. That's normally the wettest month of the year for many areas east of the coastal ranges. The month of June at Watch Lake usually frequent afternoon downpours during ULL season. This year there was nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Central BC has been dry for most of the year. But on the whole, a rainless June in the interior is a bad thing. That's normally the wettest month of the year for many areas east of the coastal ranges. The month of June at Watch Lake usually frequent afternoon downpours during ULL season. This year there was nothing.

 

Ahhh... good to know.   Did they miss out on the big rain event in the middle of June as well?

 

I did a Google street view to get a sense of the vegetation there... definitely looks like a fire prone area.   This looks like the area around Spokane.  

 

[TT-SEA]

We are driving east to Minnesota later this week... I assume that is going to be a smoky drive until we get through Montana.

[ShawniganLake]

Ahhh... good to know.   Did they miss out on the big rain event in the middle of June as well?

 

I did a Google street view to get a sense of the vegetation there... definitely looks like a fire prone area.   This looks like the area around Spokane.  

 

I just drove that road. We were evacuated to the community center in 100 mile house. I guess we will probably head home later this morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fire season hasn't been bad here in Oregon so far, but August and September are usually the big months. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ahhh... good to know. Did they miss out on the big rain event in the middle of June as well?

 

I did a Google street view to get a sense of the vegetation there... definitely looks like a fire prone area. This looks like the area around Spokane.

 

Many places only saw Trace amounts of rain in June. Strong westerly flow and heavy rain on the coast, usually translates to dry westerly downsloping winds in the interior.

 

It's crazy to think that this fire started as a grass fire in the desert near Ashcroft on July 6th. Our place is about 1.5hr drive from there.

[Phil]

A broken clock is right twice a day?

 

The MJO will return to the Indian Ocean sometime during early/mid August.

 

End result of that could be a -PNA/Plains ridge pattern and an Atlantic hurricane burst from 8/10 - 8/20, following what might be a very warm 8/1 - 8/10 in the PNW/western Canada.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey Phil, what do you think about 1967-68 as a good analog for the upcoming fall/winter?

 

I already liked it before this heat spell came into view...

[TT-SEA]

A broken clock is right twice a day?

 

 

Are you back in Vancouver?

 

How was the trip?

[Jesse]

12z GFS spits out a high of 134 degrees for PDX. Wow!!!!

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS spits out a high of 134 degrees for PDX. Wow!!!!

Impressive!

[Jesse]

Impressive!

So crazy to see the models spitting out this kind of heat. Almost enough to kill people where they stand. This could be big guys!!

[Deweydog]

WRF still hasn't budged. 36c for Thursday afternoon. Still seems out of sync with the overall intensity of the ridge but at least it's consistently inaccurate...

[TT-SEA]

So crazy to see the models spitting out this kind of heat. Almost enough to kill people where they stand. This could be big guys!!

This might offset the flash freezing and killing people where they stood back in January!

[Jesse]

This might offset the flash freezing and killing people where they stood back in January!

Whatever it takes to get as many deaths as possible! Lol!!

[TT-SEA]

Whatever it takes to get as many deaths as possible! Lol!!

Nature is being cruel with these extremes this year.

 

55 and rain all year round saves lives!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z GFS looks a little more peristent with the heat, could last through most of the long weekend.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Nature is being cruel with these extremes this year.

 

55 and rain all year round saves lives!

In many way, 55 and rain can be the biggest killer of all.

 

#northbendsuiciderates

[Deweydog]

Would everyone please think of John McCain before embarking on this death related levity?

 

#insensitivebastards

#livelaughlove

#heatwave2017

[TT-SEA]

In many way, 55 and rain can be the biggest killer of all.

 

#northbendsuiciderates

Very true.

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

Are you back in Vancouver?

 

How was the trip?

Leaving Hippa in a few hours. Had a great time and caught enough fish to last me through the year, but man I'm pretty banged up. Conditions were much rougher than I'd anticipated, especially yesterday.

[Jesse]

Hey Phil, what do you think about 1967-68 as a good analog for the upcoming fall/winter?

 

I already liked it before this heat spell came into view...

Seems like a terrible analog.

[Phil]

The waves were also different than what I'm used to during high winds. Back east, the waters are pretty shallow, so it's basically just breakers everywhere and a foam blizzard until you leave the continental shelf.

 

However, the waters are much deeper out here, so instead we had these huge rollers that would sometimes combine and stack up to 20ft. Our vessel was only 20ft long, so we were being tossed around pretty good.

 

In the moment I was (mostly) enjoying it, but in hindsight we probably should have stayed in the lodge yesterday.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Leaving Hippa in a few hours. Had a great time and caught enough fish to last me through the year, but man I'm pretty banged up. Conditions were much rougher than I'd anticipated, especially yesterday.

 

Looked like a decent storm up there on the satellite signature and you must have gone out there at its peak. I don't think it happens often at this time of year, you sure know how to time things  . I can't imagine how it would be in that area during some of the bombing fall cyclones.

[Phil]

Wow... that is essentially the same as Seattle right now. And Seattle had a high of 81 today which was 4 degrees warmer than DC.

That's my karma, I guess.

[GHweatherChris]

The waves were also different than what I'm used to during high winds. Back east, the waters are pretty shallow, so it's basically just breakers everywhere and a foam blizzard until you leave the continental shelf.

 

However, the waters are much deeper out here, so instead we had these huge rollers that would sometimes combine and stack up to 20ft. Our vessel was only 20ft long, so we were being tossed around pretty good.

 

In the moment I was (mostly) enjoying it, but in hindsight we probably should have stayed in the lodge yesterday.

Any good fisherman wouldn't take a 20 foot boat out in anything higher than 10 foot seas, if that.

[TT-SEA]

The waves were also different than what I'm used to during high winds. Back east, the waters are pretty shallow, so it's basically just breakers everywhere and a foam blizzard until you leave the continental shelf.

 

However, the waters are much deeper out here, so instead we had these huge rollers that would sometimes combine and stack up to 20ft. Our vessel was only 20ft long, so we were being tossed around pretty good.

 

In the moment I was (mostly) enjoying it, but in hindsight we probably should have stayed in the lodge yesterday.

Sounds beautiful for the climatological peak of summer.

[Phil]

Hey Phil, what do you think about 1967-68 as a good analog for the upcoming fall/winter?

 

I already liked it before this heat spell came into view...

No clue. I haven't followed the climate system at all since I left town a week ago, so I have a bunch of catching up to do.

[TT-SEA]

That's my karma, I guess.

Your karma is getting you out of town before our 100-degree heat.