Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I like the trends that I am seeing for long range deep western troughs. Even has colder air sinking in as well.

[Tom]

Now this is something I've been monitoring and what I believe will inevitably unload the Arctic sometime around the Winter Solstice period.  Considerable weakening of the Stratospheric PV in the extended period.

 

[Niko]

Actually shocked to see NOAA forecast BN temps for once in my area. Shocker indeed! Looks good though, AN precip and BN temps. You can see the trough formation very nicely on the map.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

[jaster220]

Now this is something I've been monitoring and what I believe will inevitably unload the Arctic sometime around the Winter Solstice period.  Considerable weakening of the Stratospheric PV in the extended period.

 

Wow, crashes 2 sigma in a matter of days??

[jaster220]

Actually shocked to see NOAA forecast BN temps for once in my area. Shocker indeed! Looks good though, AN precip and BN temps. You can see the trough formation very nicely on the map.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Here is 2013-14 for comparison:

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I found this post by the site Admin in SMI from Nov 22nd of 2013. The irony of parallels to this period is wild!

 

”I must say i am not liking the looks of ANYTHING at the moment where snowfall is concerned for the winter. The colder idea seems fine still but not snowfall. Yeah this could change but time is running out. Getting into December with storms either riding to our nw or along the eastcoast and ZERO taking our preferred track has shown me to not be a good thing and thus see winters like 06-07, or 09-10.. Granted 09-10 was not as bad here but still we watched epic bomb after epic bomb hit i-95 or to our west in MN/Plains. Again for MY BACKYARD i do not like the idea of November ending with so little snowfall. ALWAYS exceptions but yeah i hate having the deck stacked against me so to speak and it will be if we continue the status quo going well into December. Right now the models are not in our favor. Go from what looks to be another crappy n/nnw flow LES event on to a eastcoast storm which ofcourse followed the bomb last week which went nw of us. Further out on the models do not look promising either but ofcourse this can still change thus our only hope considering how terrible they do in the extended.

 

We need a change and we need it within the next few weeks. Looking like Nov will end with very little snowfall here imby/KBTL so yeah that looks shot all to hell and so a storm taking the preferred track within the next few weeks is what is needed.

 

And yeah we could get a very nice back loaded winter but yeah i am pretty sure that wont be pleasing to many others either especially if we have to endure a bare Christmas holiday for one.."

[Niko]

Here is 2013-14 for comparison:

 

Outlook_map_temp2013F.jpg

 

Outlook_map_Precip_203F.jpg

The question here is...what can you distinguish from this? Totally different look.

[Niko]

I found this post by the site Admin in SMI from Nov 22nd of 2013. The irony of parallels to this period is wild!

 

”I must say i am not liking the looks of ANYTHING at the moment where snowfall is concerned for the winter. The colder idea seems fine still but not snowfall. Yeah this could change but time is running out. Getting into December with storms either riding to our nw or along the eastcoast and ZERO taking our preferred track has shown me to not be a good thing and thus see winters like 06-07, or 09-10.. Granted 09-10 was not as bad here but still we watched epic bomb after epic bomb hit i-95 or to our west in MN/Plains. Again for MY BACKYARD i do not like the idea of November ending with so little snowfall. ALWAYS exceptions but yeah i hate having the deck stacked against me so to speak and it will be if we continue the status quo going well into December. Right now the models are not in our favor. Go from what looks to be another crappy n/nnw flow LES event on to a eastcoast storm which ofcourse followed the bomb last week which went nw of us. Further out on the models do not look promising either but ofcourse this can still change thus our only hope considering how terrible they do in the extended.

 

We need a change and we need it within the next few weeks. Looking like Nov will end with very little snowfall here imby/KBTL so yeah that looks shot all to hell and so a storm taking the preferred track within the next few weeks is what is needed.

 

And yeah we could get a very nice back loaded winter but yeah i am pretty sure that wont be pleasing to many others either especially if we have to endure a bare Christmas holiday for one.."

 Couple of days ago on the radio, this Meteorologist was giving out the forecast to the public and at the end, he mentioned briefly, that December is not looking bad at all. He did not give any full explanations. Not sure what his resources are to back up what he said, but, it seemed weird to me. Anyways, it will turn colder sometime in the Dec 7-10th timeframe. All we have to watch afterwards is details in the atmosphere and if they click w one another to produce Winterstorms.

[jaster220]

My 1st post was showing the contrast in maps This year looks much colder and more snow likely, or at least their confidence seems higher. The second post illustrates the similarities in late November 4 years ago, namely that things didn't look very promising, yet we proceeded to have a historic top-5 winter! We just need this month to come in avg or below, and we'll have the best indicator for the season ahead.

[Niko]

If I remember correctly, 2013-14 had a cold November, which ended up in a mild to seasonally chilly conditions towards end of the month, followed by a warm-up lasting into early December. Then, by mid December, snowstorms began battering the regions along w much colder temps.

[jaster220]

Thorough winter forecast. They did well with 13-14 as I recall.

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/11/10/winter-forecast-2017-2018/

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Thorough winter forecast. They did well with 13-14 as I recall.

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/11/10/winter-forecast-2017-2018/

Only gripe I really have is that it says over and over "SE ridge" but CLEARLY shows a pulled back pattern with a SW ridge instead.

 

He can't be wrong as long as there's a dominant weak trough anywhere this winter.

[jaster220]

Only gripe I really have is that it says over and over "SE ridge" but CLEARLY shows a pulled back pattern with a SW ridge instead.

He can't be wrong as long as there's a dominant weak trough anywhere this winter.

If I have a beef, it would be that he doesn't include MI in the 175%, due to a mild January, yet has places to our east included. I'm thinking either connect those two zones across much of Michigan, or move the further east one westward over the GL's. We'll see. They also thought first part of Dec would be the coldest and it's looking the opposite now.

[Niko]

NOAA Winter forecast screams of a snowy Michigan, Great Lakes Winter:

   

http://image.mlive.com/home/mlive-media/width600/img/weather_impact/photo/precipitation-forecast-noaa-2017-2018-finaljpg-9ce98b1af0d50d1d.jpg

NOAA's precipitation probability forecast for December 2017 to February 2018.(NOAA/ Mark Torregrossa - MLive)

 

By Mark Torregrossa

NOAA released the 2017-2018 winter outlook today. The official forecast puts Michigan in the heart of an active storm track this winter.

An active storm track through Michigan and the Great Lakes usually adds up to above average snowfall. Of course it is possible some of the active storms could pull warm air north with the storm, and bring some winter rain.

The image above is the precipitation forecast for December 2017, January 2018 and February 2018. It's a probabilistic forecast showing which areas are most likely to be wetter or drier than the long-term average.

There are some parts of the U.S. where there are no hints as to precipitation conditions this winter.

Here is the winter temperature forecast:

http://image.mlive.com/home/mlive-media/width600/img/weather_impact/photo/Temperature-forecast-NOAA-2017-2018-Final.jpgNOAA temperature probability forecast for December 2017 to February 2018.

In NOAA's winter forecast, Michigan lies in a region where temperatures are not pointing in a certain direction. NOAA actually gives Michigan an equal chance of having normal, colder than normal or warmer than normal temperatures.

At the same time, there is much higher confidence that the southern U.S. will be warmer than average this winter. There is also some confidence the northern Plains and northern Rockies will be colder than average.

The interesting part of Michigan's winter forecast is the expectation of a storm track through the Ohio Valley. A storm center moving through the Ohio Valley puts Michigan on the cold side of the storm, meaning snow. It also would put Michigan in the heaviest swath of snow with any given storm.

[jaster220]

At Niko

 

Torraegrossa is a fan of winter, and a good Met, but I don't think long range stuff is his specialty. It's too bad he's just re-hashing the gov prob's maps instead of generating his own.

[Niko]

At Niko

 

Torraegrossa is a fan of winter, and a good Met, but I don't think long range stuff is his specialty. It's too bad he's just re-hashing the gov prob's maps instead of generating his own.

I see your point. I wonder how his own thinking would have demonstrated this differently. Perhaps in a better way or not so good for our region.

[Tom]

Interesting write up from Joe D' Aleo on Wx Bell this morning as he is highlighting the GL's/Midwest region to be the jackpot this season.  Here was his comment regarding their latest Pioneer Model run.

 

 

It sees the snows in the Great Lakes and midwest resembling one of the analogs 2007. Watch out Marquette and Madison and Chicago.

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Interesting write up from Joe D' Aleo on Wx Bell this morning as he is highlighting the GL's/Midwest region to be the jackpot this season.  Here was his comment regarding their latest Pioneer Model run.

 

 

I am assuming it is the winter of 2007/08, On this side of the lake Grand Rapids recorded 107.0" and Muskegon recorded 110.3" If it is for the 2006/07 winter than the snow numbers are 83.3° for Grand Rapids and 86.8" for Muskegon. As for temperatures December 2007 at Grand Rapids was average (0.0) January 2008 was warmer than average (+2.2°) February was cold (-4.5°) and snowy 41.6" and the cold stayed around into the start of March (-2.8°) March started out with 12" of snow on the ground.

[jaster220]

Interesting write up from Joe D' Aleo on Wx Bell this morning as he is highlighting the GL's/Midwest region to be the jackpot this season.  Here was his comment regarding their latest Pioneer Model run.

 

Sweet, but even with MI shown as a "blob" outline due to them using the GL boudaries, it's clear that the bulls-eye of precip covers about all of Michigan. By not including Detroit, he either neglected the poor ol Motor City, or there's a concern they'll be on the warm side of the rain/snow line too many times (which they were in 07-08 yet still scored 75" season iirc). Great stuff, and thus why the map from that NYC wx crew makes little sense that they left all of MI out of the biggest departures..

[Niko]

@ Tom or Jaster,

 

Can post the map?!

[jaster220]

@ Tom or Jaster,

 

Can post the map?!

 

    ..was speaking of the maps posted above. The ones today by Tom, and the one I posted yesterday from the NY Wx peeps

[Niko]

    ..was speaking of the maps posted above. The ones today by Tom, and the one I posted yesterday from the NY Wx peeps

Oh, IC...my bad...man, that looks awesome!

[jaster220]

Oh, IC...my bad...man, that looks awesome!

 

Just for yby (i.e. SEMI)

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-18-outlook-for-southeast.html

[Niko]

Just for yby (i.e. SEMI)

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-18-outlook-for-southeast.html

Never heard of him. Hope he knows what he is talking about. Interesting indeed though. 

[jaster220]

Never heard of him. Hope he knows what he is talking about. Interesting indeed though. 

 

He's a legend in SEMI. Did you read his bio??  He's known for writing all the great NWS write-ups for DTX about historic storms for our region.    Told him I hope he busts on his snowfall forecast (low ofc) 

[jaster220]

At OKwx

 

This outlook is MI focused, but you should find parts of it interesting. He's got 1917-18 on his analogue list..

 

https://weatherhisto...-southeast.html

[Tom]

Here's a look at the avg seasonal snowfall for the MW/GL's/OV/EC region...

 

[OKwx2k4]

At OKwx

 

This outlook is MI focused, but you should find parts of it interesting. He's got 1917-18 on his analogue list..

 

https://weatherhisto...-southeast.html

I'd say him and I are probably barking up the same tree.

[jaster220]

Here's a look at the avg seasonal snowfall for the MW/GL's/OV/EC region...

 

 

These broad-brushed snowfall maps get ripped on pretty good elsewhere, especially by peeps in the highly LES influenced locales. Often they don't do a very good job with micro-climates like that, but for Marshall it's showing mby at about the lower edge of the 48-60" shading, which is a tad under the 49.9" I have from other sources. Often (again the LES issue) the multiple minor dustings are the difference. They're not regularly captured in snowfall reports, nor via satellite based "radar qpf" as we regularly have low-level LES falling with practically zero radar signature. Still, this is perhaps the best map yet. Thanks for sharing!

[Tom]

Here is an update to Joey D's maps yesterday, however, this is including JB's Atlantic tropical activity into their Pioneer Model which he has been showcasing this year.

[jaster220]

Here is an update to Joey D's maps yesterday, however, this is including JB's Atlantic tropical activity into their Pioneer Model which he has been showcasing this year.

 

I don't think you could paint a more beautiful precip picture for Chicago and downstream (aka SWMI) than what the Pioneer is flashing. Yesterday's Euro control 46d snowfall map was met with  icons, even tho it lines up precisely with what this model shows. And, with all the comparisons to 13-14, I remember 15 day GFS maps like this that ended up being very accurate. Guess some around these parts are still feeling bitten by the past 2 seasons.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I don't think you could paint a more beautiful precip picture for Chicago and downstream (aka SWMI) than what the Pioneer is flashing. Yesterday's Euro control 46d snowfall map was met with  icons, even tho it lines up precisely with what this model shows. And, with all the comparisons to 13-14, I remember 15 day GFS maps like this that ended up being very accurate. Guess some around these parts are still feeling bitten by the past 2 seasons.

 

20140122 12z GFS 384hr Snfall.jpg

We're feeling bitten by the last 6 here.

[Niko]

I don't think you could paint a more beautiful precip picture for Chicago and downstream (aka SWMI) than what the Pioneer is flashing. Yesterday's Euro control 46d snowfall map was met with  icons, even tho it lines up precisely with what this model shows. And, with all the comparisons to 13-14, I remember 15 day GFS maps like this that ended up being very accurate. Guess some around these parts are still feeling bitten by the past 2 seasons.

 

20140122 12z GFS 384hr Snfall.jpg

I want to see the same map again pls.

[OKwx2k4]

I think this winter could dethrone 2013-14 and 2000-01.

[jaster220]

I think this winter could dethrone 2013-14 and 2000-01.

It certainly has all the right stuff going for it. The anomalous moisture-rich atmosphere alone makes it seem possible. 2000-01 ofc was all about Nov/Dec snow up here. We've wasted Nov and Dec was an incredible 54" month at the closest official site. That seems d*mned near impossible to beat. I've said elsewhere tho, that I feel good about challenging many elite records over the course of the season, even those of the legendary 70's. Let the fun-n-games begin!!

[Niko]

Another 2013-14 Winter would be sweet. Where do I sign for that!!!

[Minny_Weather]

I'll take 2000-2001. Not 13-14. Get that yucky Winter away from me.

[clintbeed1993]

I'll take 2000-2001. Not 13-14. Get that yucky Winter away from me.

 

Everybody LOVES that winter.  Except who I wonder????....

[snowstorm83]

Man, that western Iowa cutoff is insane LOL

 

[Minny_Weather]

Everybody LOVES that winter. Except who I wonder????....

I want -40 wind chills with nothing but brown grass again!!