Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC now showing a cold winter across our sub forum, except for the southern members, as there is evidence of a battle zone.  Widespread AN precip is also being depicted as well as an active MW/OV/GL's storm track.  Glad to see it come on board with somewhat of an encouraging sign that this Winter may actually be a pleasant one.  I'm still expecting a lot of volatility this season but there will be stretches of solid winter.  Depending on how the Strat behaves over the coming 2 weeks and how much we can develop Polar Blocking, these factors will be important as to how severe this winter becomes, bc it's on the table.

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1dec2017.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1dec2017.gif

[westMJim]

According to today CFS weeks 3 and 4 we could be looking at a early January thaw. Will have to see how this plays out

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[Minny_Weather]

According to today CFS weeks 3 and 4 we could be looking at a early January thaw. Will have to see how this plays out

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Euro weeklies are thinking that too.

[hlcater]

According to today CFS weeks 3 and 4 we could be looking at a early January thaw. Will have to see how this plays out

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

How can you thaw when you have nothing to thaw?

[OKwx2k4]

Euro weeklies are thinking that too.

I'd say it's highly likely also.

[jaster220]

How can you thaw when you have nothing to thaw?

 

And thus our recently minted snow pack is extra exposed- nothing around us to fend off torching(s)

[Tom]

Trends in the CFSv2 for January are quite interesting and suggesting "cutter alley" across our sub forum....where will the Jan Thaw transpire???  Could Polar Blocking finally lock in during the -QBO regime???  SE Ridge/Bermuda HP is one of the players on the field as we approach next month.  Notice that ridge near the Bearing Sea/Aleutians which encourages a SE Ridge.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171216.201801.gif

[jaster220]

Trends in the CFSv2 for January are quite interesting and suggesting "cutter alley" across our sub forum....where will the Jan Thaw transpire???  Could Polar Blocking finally lock in during the -QBO regime???  SE Ridge/Bermuda HP is one of the players on the field as we approach next month.  Notice that ridge near the Bearing Sea/Aleutians which encourages a SE Ridge.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171216.201801.gif

It all looks so good bud, now if it could just deliver on it's very promising look. Hoosier noted the following for Chicago. It's pretty much "do or die" time for this season to "put-up or shut-up" as the old saying goes.

 

 

"Ran some snowfall numbers for Chicago, based on this year's total through December 15 (probably could've extended out to at least the 20th given no snow in the near future), and the news is not great. 38 seasons have had 2.1" or less through December 15. Of those, 27 went on to finish with below average snow while 11 finished above. If there's any good news, it's that slow starts have been a little less of a death sentence in more recent decades, with 8 out of those 11 "rally" seasons coming since 1960.

 

Unless something changes fast, we are probably getting to the point where we can almost rule out a historic snow season, unless Chicago can pull off a Boston 2015 type comeback. The 3 snowiest seasons (1978-79, 1977-78, 2013-14) had anywhere from 15.1-38.5 inches at the end of December.

 

Would note that one year that fell just outside the cutoff of 2.1" or less through 12/15 was 1966-67. That year had only 3.0" through December 15 and finished with 68.4"

[Niko]

Some brutal temps underway by next weekend. Maybe coldest of the season yet to come!

[Tom]

If the CFS/CFSv2 trends for January are any indication of what to expect, we may have a "muted" Jan thaw.  Starting to see certain variables that argue more sustained cold (albeit closer to normal) as we get past the first week of January which I believe will be brutal to open 2018.  Just like in the winter of '13-'14, any pullbacks resulted in temps averaging to near normal which felt "balmy" after a very cold stretch.  

 

For instance, if we are to use the BSR as guidance, take a look at the 00z GEFS 500mb/MSLP Day 10-15 mean.  Based on this theory, it would suggest the colder pattern to persist thru at least the 21st of January.  The placement of the Aleutian Low is nearly perfect for seeing a colder CONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not only that, but data is coming in that we may be seeing our first significant SSW event of the season to finish off the month of December.  I'm beginning to wonder if the Jan-Mar period may in fact be much different than how December has been so bipolar across the CONUS.

[jaster220]

 

 

Not only that, but data is coming in that we may be seeing our first significant SSW event of the season to finish off the month of December.  I'm beginning to wonder if the Jan-Mar period may in fact be much different than how December has been so bipolar across the CONUS.

 

For the sake of everybody who sat on the sidelines while we enjoyed the Clipper Train ride, I certainly hope so! A lot of similarities with 13-14, too many to ignore really. After the cold and nice system on the 14-15th, it remained cold for 3 days only, then I noted 3 days of rain (19,20,21st) and mix on the 22nd as we gently returned to winter temps and light dustings at Christmas proper. Even warmed for 3 days 27-29th (above 40F) before cold and snow hit NYDay for a historic 9 day run! 

[Minny_Weather]

A lot of similarities with 13-14, too many to ignore really.

Shut up and think happier thoughts.

[jaster220]

Shut up and think happier thoughts.

 

^^^

 

Other than the similar melt-down to ~ 1" depth at Christmas, those were mostly happy thoughts, lol. It certainly got better as January dawned over SMI 

[Minny_Weather]

^^^

 

Other than the similar melt-down to ~ 1" depth at Christmas, those were mostly happy thoughts, lol. It certainly got better as January dawned over SMI 

That Winter was as cold and dry as cold and dry can get here. Even with the cold, we still managed to set multiple warm records that Winter.

[jaster220]

That Winter was as cold and dry as cold and dry can get here. Even with the cold, we still managed to set multiple warm records that Winter.

 

Man, you Neb guys really take it on the chin! I couldn't do it tbh. I'd have to find a new hobby

[Niko]

Man, cant remember when the last time I saw the sun was. Geez!

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and light drizzle. Temp @ 38F. Plenty of snowpack otg.

[jaster220]

Man, cant remember when the last time I saw the sun was. Geez!

 

Peeps were sun-bathing in Marshall Saturday - price you pay for getting/keeping all that snow OTG   

[Niko]

Peeps were sun-bathing in Marshall Saturday - price you pay for getting/keeping all that snow OTG   

Actually, its a good price.   

[Minny_Weather]

I must say, yesterday's Euro weeklies for anyone around here outside of the GLs who enjoys Winter looked bad. Not much of a possibility for appreciable snowfall. Almost looks as if there is so much blocking that the South gets a funner Winter than us. January thaw is painted to start in mid-January and last till the end of the run, too.

[Niko]

Currently 36F w clear skies. My snowpack got a beating today, but still got some left.

[Niko]

I can feel the air getting colder. Temps will be falling in the 20s tanite.

[jaster220]

Currently 36F w clear skies. My snowpack got a beating today, but still got some left.

 

Piles, patches, and drifts ova my way. Exactly what I expected tbh since all the snow came via LES/Clipper low-moisture part skim milk ingredients. Kinda like low-fat cheese. It's cheese, but of a different texture and less filling and tasty than the real McCoy. I'm fine with it really. Downstate, piles around constitutes "winter" half of the days, lol

[Tom]

N PAC waters have warmed considerably over the last few weeks...big implications for January if this trend continues to hold...

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Piles, patches, and drifts ova my way. Exactly what I expected tbh since all the snow came via LES/Clipper low-moisture part skim milk ingredients. Kinda like low-fat cheese. It's cheese, but of a different texture and less filling and tasty than the real McCoy. I'm fine with it really. Downstate, piles around constitutes "winter" half of the days, lol

In west Michigan the chances of a white Christmas is around 70% and at this time that is about what I have 70% snow cover and 30% bare ground.

[jaster220]

In west Michigan the chances of a white Christmas is around 70% and at this time that is about what I have 70% snow cover and 30% bare ground.

 

Pretty sure it's not about amount of ground covered, but that on avg, 7 of 10 yrs will have at least 1" of snow OTG at 7 am on Dec 25th. But, perhaps you were just noting the coincidence..

[Hawkeye]

N PAC waters have warmed considerably over the last few weeks...big implications for January if this trend continues to hold...

 

The northern hemisphere oceans are quite warm in general.

[Niko]

Piles, patches, and drifts ova my way. Exactly what I expected tbh since all the snow came via LES/Clipper low-moisture part skim milk ingredients. Kinda like low-fat cheese. It's cheese, but of a different texture and less filling and tasty than the real McCoy. I'm fine with it really. Downstate, piles around constitutes "winter" half of the days, lol

[Niko]

Lots of table-talk about active weather, but,. hopefully models get their act together and bring us a good snowstorms for us peeps.

[westMJim]

I will add this here as this is a winter guess from the CPC

Here is the new CPC long range guess for January 2018

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

and their guess for the JFM time

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

[Niko]

Definitely shaping up to be a colder December this year than last. What a difference a year can make!

[Minny_Weather]

Euro Weeklies show an awesome pattern for the plains till the January thaw in the middle of the month.

[Tom]

The Canadian weeklies suggest, after a wild next 20 days, the pattern relaxes a bit but a more favorable "cutter" pattern evolves and the model is also suggesting a west-based Greenland block/SE Ridge to develop by Week 2 of Jan where we have seen blocking develop across E Canada/Greenland since the new LRC formed back in Oct.  A more La Nina-like pattern is looking more likely in January with a neutral to at times +EPO allowing for the Alaskan ridge to subside as systems track into NW NAMER and dig into the SW/Rockies.  Last nights Euro Weeklies showed many troughs centering in the Plains states during the 1st half of Jan and had that "cutter" look to it.  We would like to see a -NAO or at the very least, a neutral NAO once this pattern cycles through.

[jaster220]

The Canadian weeklies suggest, after a wild next 20 days, the pattern relaxes a bit but a more favorable "cutter" pattern evolves and the model is also suggesting a west-based Greenland block/SE Ridge to develop by Week 2 of Jan where we have seen blocking develop across E Canada/Greenland since the new LRC formed back in Oct.  A more La Nina-like pattern is looking more likely in January with a neutral to at times +EPO allowing for the Alaskan ridge to subside as systems track into NW NAMER and dig into the SW/Rockies.  Last nights Euro Weeklies showed many troughs centering in the Plains states during the 1st half of Jan and had that "cutter" look to it.  We would like to see a -NAO or at the very least, a neutral NAO once this pattern cycles through.

 

Got fingers crossed on that..

[jaster220]

Got fingers crossed on that..

 

LOT Met's comments going forward towards the New Year..

 

 

Best operational Euro run of the winter for the subforum tonight after arguably the worst run for last night's 00z lol. Light to moderate events earlier on then an extended event with LES/lake enhancement late week, then another event at the end of the run.

 

Obviously can't take anything that far out verbatim, but main takeaway is 2 consecutive op runs lost the horribly suppressed meatgrinder PV look of the 00z 12/21 run. Hopefully they continue to show a similarly active look.

 

Good signs..

[Niko]

It is looking mighty cold down the road right into mid January. Brrrrrrr.

[OKwx2k4]

I've been a bit quiet as of late but looking forward to 1 or 2 inches of snow tonight. I'm going to be so happy to see a depressing 2 years disappear tonight. Don't really know what it is about snow that makes me so happy, but it just does.

[OKwx2k4]

Got fingers crossed on that..

That type of pattern is one I like too also. It looks like I have many chances at precip ahead too.

[Hawkeye]

DVN tweeted this out this evening.... calendar year snowfall futility records are in jeopardy.

 

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
755 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017

...Dubuque and Moline Annual Snowfall Totals Among the Lowest...

The 2017 snowfall totals at Dubuque and Moline currently rank
as the lowest snowfall amounts in a calendar year on record.

At Dubuque, the 2017 snowfall total as of December 22 is only
11.2 inches. The current least snowiest year on record is 2001
with a value of 15.0 inches.

At Moline, the 2017 snowfall total as of December 22 is only 8.6
inches. The current least snowiest year on record is 1949 with a
value of 12.6 inches.

There is still 9 days left to go in 2017 and snowfall is in the
forecast, so stay tuned.

[Tom]

Latest trends from the CFSv2 for January...are they legit???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201801.gif