Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

Umm, can we just lock that up right there??? SE ridge looks perfect as shown.

[jaster220]

Off topic, but for Niko since he's a recent transplant to SEMI

 

How about 16.5" in the last week of April? That was nuts ova your way!

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/snowfall050423

[NEJeremy]

[Niko]

Off topic, but for Niko since he's a recent transplant to SEMI

 

How about 16.5" in the last week of April? That was nuts ova your way!

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/snowfall050423

Never been amazed by late winterstorms. I bet that snow that fell that day was gone the next day. All it created was slush and delayed commuters. Temps the next day prolly soared in the 50s and 60s. That is no way to enjoy a winterstorm. By mid March, I am into Spring mode.

[jaster220]

Never been amazed by late winterstorms. I bet that snow that fell that day was gone the next day. All it created was slush and delayed commuters. Temps the next day prolly soared in the 50s and 60s. That is no way to enjoy a winterstorm. By mid March, I am into Spring mode.

Be that as it may, it's still amazing, even in a terrible way, LOL

[westMJim]

Never been amazed by late winterstorms. I bet that snow that fell that day was gone the next day. All it created was slush and delayed commuters. Temps the next day prolly soared in the 50s and 60s. That is no way to enjoy a winterstorm. By mid March, I am into Spring mode.

In 1975 Bay City had an 14.5" snow fall (not slush) there was snow on the ground for the next 9 days. And on March 17, 1973 Bay City had a 21.3" blizzard and flood and the snow was on the ground for 7 days. The 1973 storm along with the ones in 1967 and 1978 are the bench mark snow storms in my life time. In the Bay City area all 3 had 1. heavy snow fall. 2. high winds 60 tp 75 MPH at the bay shore. 3. and a lot of thunder snow and the one in 1973 pushed the water from the Saginaw Bay into the Saginaw River and into Bay City, . There has not been a winter storm close since the one in 1978 the so called 2011 GHD storm was not even close,

[jaster220]

In 1975 Bay City had an 14.5" snow fall (not slush) there was snow on the ground for the next 9 days. And on March 17, 1973 Bay City had a 21.3" blizzard and flood and the snow was on the ground for 7 days. The 1973 storm along with the ones in 1967 and 1978 are the bench mark snow storms in my life time. In the Bay City area all 3 had 1. heavy snow fall. 2. high winds 60 tp 75 MPH at the bay shore. 3. and a lot of thunder snow and the one in 1973 pushed the water from the Saginaw Bay into the Saginaw River and into Bay City, . There has not been a winter storm close since the one in 1978 the so called 2011 GHD storm was not even close,

Was the '75 storm the same one that buried me in Genesee Cnty with 18" of concrete on the 2nd & 3rd? One of the most epic storms of my youth.

[westMJim]

Was the '75 storm the same one that buried me in Genesee Cnty with 18" of concrete on the 2nd & 3rd? One of the most epic storms of my youth.

the dates are right it was April 2nd into the 3rd 1975

[Niko]

In 1975 Bay City had an 14.5" snow fall (not slush) there was snow on the ground for the next 9 days. And on March 17, 1973 Bay City had a 21.3" blizzard and flood and the snow was on the ground for 7 days. The 1973 storm along with the ones in 1967 and 1978 are the bench mark snow storms in my life time. In the Bay City area all 3 had 1. heavy snow fall. 2. high winds 60 tp 75 MPH at the bay shore. 3. and a lot of thunder snow and the one in 1973 pushed the water from the Saginaw Bay into the Saginaw River and into Bay City, . There has not been a winter storm close since the one in 1978 the so called 2011 GHD storm was not even close,

Who cares if there was no slush......it is not the same as it would be like in December, J or F. No comparison at all!!!

[gimmesnow]

Late season snow is the worst. Ski hills closed, snowmobile trails all shut down. It's cool to look at, and that's about it.

[jaster220]

Late season snow is the worst. Ski hills closed, snowmobile trails all shut down. It's cool to look at, and that's about it.

Late season snow perhaps. Late season Big Dogs like that one rock! Talking snow emergency stuff here. Who needs trails when the roads were impassable. I had family rescuing stranded motorists off the state hwy. This was not spring like after green-up and worms are out, lol

[Tom]

Trends in the climate models and overall theme that has set up since the Winter Solstice shall continue with periods of warmer periods mixed in.  I'm expecting a general Jan Thaw later in the Week 2-3 period as a somewhat "reloading" period takes place, following, which I believe will be a 30-40 day period that could get rather wild to finish off met Winter.  The idea that Feb will deliver the largest widespread BN temp departures is still in the cards but this will be dependent on how the PV behaves and if Polar Blocking continues.  All, of which, I expect to see some fascinating effects into our wx pattern.  Is there going to be another historic cold stretch in Feb???   I'm definitely expecting to see some big winter storms sometime around Jan 21st thru Feb.  The pattern is really beginning to look like our sub forum will be in a great position to see many opportunities for winter hits.

[Minny_Weather]

Trends in the climate models and overall theme that has set up since the Winter Solstice shall continue with periods of warmer periods mixed in. I'm expecting a general Jan Thaw later in the Week 2-3 period as a somewhat "reloading" period takes place, following, which I believe will be a 30-40 day period that could get rather wild to finish off met Winter. The idea that Feb will deliver the largest widespread BN temp departures is still in the cards but this will be dependent on how the PV behaves and if Polar Blocking continues. All, of which, I expect to see some fascinating effects into our wx pattern. Is there going to be another historic cold stretch in Feb??? I'm definitely expecting to see some big winter storms sometime around Jan 21st thru Feb. The pattern is really beginning to look like our sub forum will be in a great position to see many opportunities for winter hits.

Does that include us?

 

Every sucko Winter we have translates to an awesome severe weather season so it's a mixed bag lol.

[Tom]

Does that include us?

 

Every sucko Winter we have translates to an awesome severe weather season so it's a mixed bag lol.

I'm speaking in general, picking and choosing what state (s) are going to be in the jackpot over the next 2 months is not what I'm trying to predict will happen.  I do think we all experience a Jan Thaw, but to what degree??  All it takes is one storm to cut NW and erode your snow pack.  It's on the table as its happened before in Dec.  However, we have to consider we are entering the "heart" of winter when the jet is at its strongest so if polar blocking is still in the works, you could still have AN temps and a snowstorm.  It all depends where the storm track sets up in later this month.

[Niko]

Next week needs to be watched. Nothing major, but at least it might provide some accumulations.

[clintbeed1993]

It's going to be another well below normal winter for snowfall in Nebraska.  This is like our 7th below normal season in 10 seasons.  You would think mother nature would even it out eventually and I keep waiting for it but it never comes.  We are in a snow rout here with no signs of an end.  Let's hope we can squeak out 20 for a season total.  I JUST WANT 1 GOOD SNOWSTORM.

[Minny_Weather]

It's going to be another well below normal winter for snowfall in Nebraska.  This is like our 7th below normal season in 10 seasons.  You would think mother nature would even it out eventually and I keep waiting for it but it never comes.  We are in a snow rout here with no signs of an end.  Let's hope we can squeak out 20 for a season total.  I JUST WANT 1 GOOD SNOWSTORM.

Lincoln hasn't had an above normal year since 2010-11.

[Tabitha]

  I JUST WANT 1 GOOD SNOWSTORM.

 

Soo not true...a week after you get it; you will want a second...lol.

[Tabitha]

Lincoln hasn't had an above normal year since 2010-11.

 

I thought the town had 27.5" in 2012-13; which seems to be above the 26.2" average...

[Minny_Weather]

I thought the town had 27.5" in 2012-13; which seems to be above the 26.2" average...

Whoops you're right. Though above average, that is a forgettable year puncuated by a 3" May snowfall. Basically, it didn't get good till Spring, when snow is pointless and people here start being focused on severe weather.

[jaster220]

I thought the town had 27.5" in 2012-13; which seems to be above the 26.2" average...

Whoops you're right. Though above average, that is a forgettable year puncuated by a 3" May snowfall. Basically, it didn't get good till Spring, when snow is pointless and people here start being focused on severe weather.

I give a tolerance of +/-5% as "an avg season", so you're both right, one technically and the other in a most practical sense!

[OKwx2k4]

Hey folks, I'm still around. Just super cold and dry here. Hate that but there's still time. Just passing the time til a decent storm shows up.

[Tabitha]

This website has just added the GEM-LAM (Canadian); also known as HRDPS.  It is the BEST short-range (inside 48 hours) model in the universe...by far.

 

The only problem is that I think it only covers areas north of the 40th parallel; or thereabouts.

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010300&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=628

[jaster220]

^^^ noticed that as well, just have been too busy to check into it. Thx

[jaster220]

Hey folks, I'm still around. Just super cold and dry here. Hate that but there's still time. Just passing the time til a decent storm shows up.

 

Happy 2018 to ya down there! Glad you checked in - miss your contributions around here..

[Niko]

 I will wait and see if amounts go any higher, but, for now it looks low. Nothing of significance. (1-3", 3-5" potentially) I think the cold air will be deep enough in all layers to support all snow, especially, from Detroit, points northward. Anywhere south from there, might encounter some mixing, perhaps going to a plain cold rain. Something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

[OKwx2k4]

Happy 2018 to ya down there! Glad you checked in - miss your contributions around here..

Just a busy man right now. Had to make a few contributions elsewhere. I enjoy getting to study and write. Should be able to give more time back to it soon. Happy 2018 to you too buddy. Going to be a great one.

[FV-Mike]

Some pretty impressive stats on the cold mentioned by LOT

 

We are in the midst of a long stretch with temperatures remaining below 20°. If this continues in Chicago through Saturday, January 6, it will mark 12 consecutive days of below 20°, tying a record of such a stretch for the city (only seen twice before in the winters of 1936 and 1895).  A very close stretch was 13 days on Jan 19-31, 1963 but one day had a high of 20°

[Tom]

 Big flip in the ECMWF Feb temp outlook to more broad-based cold...it did NOT look like this for consecutive months insisting on a more dramatic SE/EC ridge.

 

[Tom]

ECMWF 500mb map and precip....who's ready for some excitement???  I mean, this should support a favorable pattern for most of our sub forum.  Will it be your back yard???

[Hoosier]

ECMWF 500mb map and precip....who's ready for some excitement??? I mean, this should support a favorable pattern for most of our sub forum. Will it be your back yard???

There are worse looks but I'd rather see more above average precip extending farther northwest.

[Grizzcoat]

Some pretty impressive #'s for KDSM  from the cold snap that is about to end tomorrow. The #'s ;   13 consecutive days with avg daily temps 10 degrees or more below avg. (last done in DEC 2000)  8 consecutive days with minimum temps 0 or below. Even Dec 2000 did NOT do that. Probably have to go back to DEC 1989 as even late JAN 96 - early FEB 96 didn't do that. All with only 3" of snow pack.

[gabel23]

Some pretty impressive #'s for KDSM from the cold snap that is about to end tomorrow. The #'s ; 13 consecutive days with avg daily temps 10 degrees or more below avg. (last done in DEC 2000) 8 consecutive days with minimum temps 0 or below. Even Dec 2000 did NOT do that. Probably have to go back to DEC 1989 as even late JAN 96 - early FEB 96 didn't do that. All with only 3" of snow pack.

Imagine how cold this outbreak would have been with a glacier laid down in our region?! This was an impressive outbreak, I was happy with the snow we got before it got here. This was the coldest air for my region in over 20 Years.

[Minny_Weather]

Imagine how cold this outbreak would have been with a glacier laid down in our region?! This was an impressive outbreak, I was happy with the snow we got before it got here. This was the coldest air for my region in over 20 Years.

If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.

[gabel23]

If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.

Some places around my area had pipes freezing even with a 3 inch snow depth. If we wouldn’t have had any insulation on the ground in the form of snow it could’ve been really bad, and depressing!!!!!!!

[OKwx2k4]

If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.

Not insane yet, may be before winter is over though. Cold and bare is bad. Here's hoping for snow later on.

[Tom]

Will there be a big SSW event this winter???  We have yet to see any significant disruptions of the PV this season...BUT...is that about to change???  More often than not, during a -QBO/low solar winter season, the chances of a significant SSW event are heightened.  I have been following the GEFS strat forecasts all season long and they have provided a lot of value in the longer range.  Of late, they have been flashing a significant warming event over the Pole beginning around the 18th of the month and continuing through the extended.  What happens towards the end of the extended period, is rather significant.  See below the 10mb maps that show this evolution which I believe will become a major SSW event, esp if the Eurasia warming commences.

 

FWIW, both CFSv2/CPC SST's CA are signalling a BN pattern through at least April....

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201712/cat2m_anom.1.png

[OKwx2k4]

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmerAccu/posts/10156125485779169

 

Here's an awesome roll cloud in Oklahoma from today's front passing through.

[Tom]

The Polar Vortex is as strong as it has been all season long...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

Don't be fooled...BIG changes are brewing and I believe the season's strongest SSW event is about to commence by Day 5 through Day 10 and into the extended...will this be the cattle prod for some extreme weather across the lower 48 starting in early Feb???

 

 

Current 30mb temps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f00.png

 

 

Day 10...big reversal....notice the squeeze play which will encourage cross polar flow and keep N.A. generally filled with arctic air.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

[gabel23]

The Polar Vortex is as strong as it has been all season long...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

Don't be fooled...BIG changes are brewing and I believe the season's strongest SSW event is about to commence by Day 5 through Day 10 and into the extended...will this be the cattle prod for some extreme weather across the lower 48 starting in early Feb???

 

 

Current 30mb temps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f00.png

 

 

Day 10...big reversal....notice the squeeze play which will encourage cross polar flow and keep N.A. generally filled with arctic air.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

According to a local met from channel 8, which I have total faith in, he says back loaded winter for us. We shall see!