Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

Man, that western Iowa cutoff is insane LOL

 

 

That seems a bit low all around. It says Chicago's normal is only 31.3"?? Pretty sure it's closer to 40" (at least b4 last winter)    

 

And while it was a great winter across all of SWMI, it was greatest based on snowfall departures furthest from the Lake Michigan snowbelts.

 

They show 42-48" as "normal" along the coast, when in reality it's more like 72-84" as you can see in this great map Tom just shared.

 

 

[Niko]

That seems a bit low all around. It says Chicago's normal is only 31.3"?? Pretty sure it's closer to 40" (at least b4 last winter)    

Map is definitely off. Here in Macomb I receive 44-48" on average per Winter season. I should be in the purple color.

[snowstorm83]

Ya I think both maps are off in some areas (DSM had 48.3" instead of below 40") so the drop off should actually be a bit steeper I would think

[Tom]

CFSv2's first look at January...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171201.201801.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20171201.201801.gif

[jaster220]

@ CFS maps ^^^

 

Sadly, it looks like there's only one way they could trend, and it'd not be the way we want. IF, they should trend better as is typical during the course of the month leading up to, then all I can say is...    

[Niko]

It will be a colder Winter, indeed, but the big question here is, will it be a snowy one?!

[Niko]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/could-mount-agung-cause-global-cooling-effects-lasting-for-years/70003412

[OKwx2k4]

@ CFS maps ^^^

 

Sadly, it looks like there's only one way they could trend, and it'd not be the way we want. IF, they should trend better as is typical during the course of the month leading up to, then all I can say is...

Yeah. I'm on the cold side of the precip in the southern branch there. Don't need any adjustments at all.

[westMJim]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/could-mount-agung-cause-global-cooling-effects-lasting-for-years/70003412

If and at this point it is a big IF there is a big enough eruption then there could be a “cooling” effect. It would be too late for this winter but if it happened in the next 1 to 3 months it could bring a cooler summer next year.  And if it was a real big one it could have a cooling effect next winter. By that it means it could be cooler than it would have been otherwise. 

[Niko]

If and at this point it is a big IF there is a big enough eruption then there could be a “cooling” effect. It would be too late for this winter but if it happened in the next 1 to 3 months it could bring a cooler summer next year.  And if it was a real big one it could have a cooling effect next winter. By that it means it could be cooler than it would have been otherwise. 

Or, dont be surprised if it takes longer than that.

[Grizzcoat]

The article on the eruption of Agung ---- I thought unless a cataclysmic eruption like Pinutubo etc. that the most effect put on the atmosphere was N. Latitude eruptions such as the ones in Iceland and AK a few years ago. Maybe this is a winter thing compared to yearly thing but on I know JB and JD always stress high latitude events when it comes to cooling of the atmosphere.

[jaster220]

I would highly suspect that the broad area of red & brown on this map needs to be balanced out by Ma Nature.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

I would highly suspect that the broad area of red & brown on this map needs to be balanced out by Ma Nature.

 

5a21b4fd73c70_WarningMap.thumb.png.6a0237651930357e7565f3392fac6a70.png

Local TV Met here in the DSM area is keeping track of the # of days since the last 3" snowfall. Not sure if it's 24hr or storm total but it's well over 700 days. The "263" for the DMX area is the Northern Area. Probably closer to the 704 for the MCI area for S.IA.

[OKwx2k4]

I would highly suspect that the broad area of red & brown on this map needs to be balanced out by Ma Nature.

 

5a21b4fd73c70_WarningMap.thumb.png.6a0237651930357e7565f3392fac6a70.png

You're telling me buddy. Long overdue is what that says.

[mlgamer]

Counting today, it has been 1,397 days since Topeka's last 3" or more snowfall (Feb 4, 2014). So we're working on 4 years now.

[jaster220]

Counting today, it has been 1,397 days since Topeka's last 3" or more snowfall (Feb 4, 2014). So we're working on 4 years now.

True dat! The map is a little misleading since it's just a WSWarn and that can come via ZR and/or a mix combo, especially down south. A map based solely on snowfall prolly looks way worse for some regions.

[jaster220]

Local TV Met here in the DSM area is keeping track of the # of days since the last 3" snowfall. Not sure if it's 24hr or storm total but it's well over 700 days. The "263" for the DMX area is the Northern Area. Probably closer to the 704 for the MCI area for S.IA.

Same for here. GRR covers a huge region especially north to south. Their top row or two of counties are actually more tied to the storm track for NMI, where they must've scored a warning late last season, cuz I know we didn't down here. We did get that legit warned snowstorm a year ago tho.

[Niko]

Very cold air to overspread the area come next week and onto the following week. Get ready! Clipper type systems and LES will be on the cards. No big storms showing up currently, but that could change.

[mlgamer]

True dat! The map is a little misleading since it's just a WSWarn and that can come via ZR and/or a mix combo, especially down south. A map based solely on snowfall prolly looks way worse for some regions.

 

Yeah, I agree about the map.  I'm guessing the northwest counties of the Topeka NWS forecast area could have had a WSWarn for snow at some time so I didn't bother saying anything about the map. Any WSWarn for Topeka itself would have definitely been for freezing rain during this time...unless the snow forecast was a bust.

[jaster220]

Yeah, the busted snow amount. Yet another scenario that could skew that generalized map. It'd be interesting to see one based on last verified 6+ total, 4+ total, 3+ total, etc.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, the busted snow amount. Yet another scenario that could skew that generalized map. It'd be interesting to see one based on last verified 6+ total, 4+ total, 3+ total, etc.

I know Oklahoma mesonet does some maps kind of like that but not sure about other states.

[Niko]

Chances are it might be a dry, cold Winter in portions of the GL's. (especially, my area SEMI) Have to wait and see.

[jaster220]

Louisville KY winter outlook from local TV station. Mentions Gary Lezak too. Some interesting data.

 

http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2017/10/winter-forecast-2017-18.html?clienttype=generic

[Niko]

Louisville KY winter outlook from local TV station. Mentions Gary Lezak too. Some interesting data.

 

http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2017/10/winter-forecast-2017-18.html?clienttype=generic

Didn't we see that map already?! Or  am I missing something.......

[jaster220]

Interesting map showing how awesome 77-78 was for snowfall

 

 

[Tom]

For those who saw and recognized '13/'14 as an analog were not that far fetched as this year's Polar Vortex behavior has been rather similar to this year.  See Dr. Cohen's comments below:

 

 

I will conclude with the unique stratosphere-troposphere coupling of the winter of 2013/14.  The vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere was active for an unusually long period but was never very strong.  This caused relatively minor but repetitive disruptions to the stratospheric PV where it stretched along an axis from Central Asia to central North America but never broke.  This contributed to persistent troughing and cold temperatures for eastern North America and Central Asia with ridging and milder temperatures on either side of the troughs.  So far early in this winter season, the behavior of the stratospheric PV reminds me of that winter.  I believe there are some important similarities but also important differences and for now I am keeping that winter in the back of my head as a possible analog.

[indianajohn]

Looks like Chances of a white Christmas in our area are slim. Gonna wait to gas up the snow blowers this year, had them all ready last year and the gas I put in December had to be drained in March LOL!!!

[Niko]

Looks like Chances of a white Christmas in our area are slim. Gonna wait to gas up the snow blowers this year, had them all ready last year and the gas I put in December had to be drained in March LOL!!!

Which reminds me also, I have to drain my gas from my snowblower. Thanks.   

[gabel23]

Here is some pics from the last crazy winter I have seen; which was December of 2009 where my area saw over 30" of snow that month. I can only hope that this will repeat sometime in my lifetime. To get us all excited for winter; I figured why not post some of your craziest pictures you have taken for winter?!

[jaster220]

Dude!  Those are some awesome photos! ^^^ I see holiday lights, is that right after the big Christmas Bliz? I love drifts. Here in Michigan, we do get some drifting out in the more open farmland. The Thumb of Michigan would prolly feel like home for y'all Neb peeps. My sis lived out there some years back. You must've gotten a ton of wind tho to get all the snow to end up as shown..

[gabel23]

Dude!  Those are some awesome photos! ^^^ I see holiday lights, is that right after the big Christmas Bliz? I love drifts. Here in Michigan, we do get some drifting out in the more open farmland. The Thumb of Michigan would prolly feel like home for y'all Neb peeps. My sis lived out there some years back. You must've gotten a ton of wind tho to get all the snow to end up as shown..

Yep, this was right after the 2009 x-mas blizzard. We had 60 mph wind gusts and blizzard conditions for over 30 hours. We also seen a blizzard early in December that year. The snow depth in my home town was 2 feet after this blizzard!  Snow stayed on the ground until March that year! That was by far the most snow I have ever experienced on the ground at one time. It goes to show you we can experience some impressive winters; it just has been a long time. 

[Snowlover76]

I want that

[jaster220]

Me too

[GDR]

Me three

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends for January are looking optimistic that the W NAMER ridge will be farther offshore allowing for a favorable storm track across the CONUS.  Better for the Plains/GL's???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201801.gif

[Andrew NE]

Hoping that Gary goes more in depth on the LRC this week, he has been fairly quiet over the last 10 days.

[Tom]

Hoping that Gary goes more in depth on the LRC this week, he has been fairly quiet over the last 10 days.

You think he is re-evaluating his thoughts???  I don't necessarily read or pay much attn to the blog and only watch/read his main posts and videos.  I'm really curious if he makes any changes to his LRC cycle length.

[jaster220]

CFSv2 trends for January are looking optimistic that the W NAMER ridge will be farther offshore allowing for a favorable storm track across the CONUS.  Better for the Plains/GL's???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201801.gif

 

Those are gorgeous CFSv2 maps Tom! One can only hope this is finally happening for the entire sub! 

[Tom]

Those are gorgeous CFSv2 maps Tom! One can only hope this is finally happening for the entire sub! 

I agree, this would look like a classic La Nina type pattern across the country.  We just need to get past this coming week and the pattern is going to shift overall and the much anticipated pattern change is around the corner.

[Andrew NE]

You think he is re-evaluating his thoughts???  I don't necessarily read or pay much attn to the blog and only watch/read his main posts and videos.  I'm really curious if he makes any changes to his LRC cycle length.

 

I honestly think he has to be at this point, especially if the pattern cycle is only around 45-47 days.  I believe this year has them doing a lot more digging and analyzing to get it figured out.