Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

My extended looks dry and seasonably cold to even maybe slightly above normal temps.

[NEJeremy]

Except for tomorrow we’re above normal the next 7 days and will be well into the 60s on Friday

[hlcater]

Strong ridgding in the SW looks to contiunue for upcoming 17/18 Winter season.

 

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/11/20/cold-and-snowy-winter-forecast-northern-us/

Gonna have a hard time getting systems out of this region then.

[jaster220]

Cohen:
As I have discussed previously if these positive pressure/height anomalies persist and shift east into the Gulf of Alaska and along the west coast of North America (in particular Canada) then eastern North America including Southeastern Canada and the Northeastern US will in all likelihood experience a colder than normal winter. Alternatively if the same ridge or positive height anomalies remain further west closer to the International Date Line then this will in all likelihood allow troughing or low heights to occupy the Gulf of Alaska flooding North America with mild Pacific air for much of the winter resulting in a relatively mild winter east of the Rockies. I really don’t know of a boundary forcing that can predict which of these two scenarios are more likely. However I do note that sea ice on the North Pacific side of the Arctic is well below normal and I believe this may favor anchoring a ridge near Alaska closer to the North American coast during the winter months. Ridging in that position would favor a cold rather than a mild winter in eastern North America. Also sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas while below normal is substantially more extensive than last year at this time. I also believe that this may weaken the forcing of ridging or positive geopotential height anomalies in the region of the Barents-Kara Seas, which has been so dominant the past two winters.

[jaster220]

Nice 4 sequenced GIF can be seen there, even NE gets covered nicely per the latest Euro run

"BAMWX Retweeted"
Kirk ❄ Hinz
@Met_khinz

"Not a forecast, but I do find it very interesting how each of the last 4 European weekly runs have trended south with heavier snow fall into early January...makes sense if we tap into more cold given current placement of precip recently #winter ❄☃ "

[jaster220]

Gonna have a hard time getting systems out of this region then.

 

We've seen systems come out of the Rockies in the vicinity of CO and/or KS for 2 months now. The problem furthest west is that they aren't mature storms. They're just getting started and end up developing further east. What is needed for NE and IA peeps is a slower, stronger, digging system that goes neg-tilt sooner. We saw this with GHD-2 system and with strong enough blocking it can replay this season as well. 

[gabel23]

Here is another winter forecast. Dean Wysocki is my favorite meteorologist. He was at channel 8 back in the mid to late 90's, quit then came back a second time. He is a very good met. 

[hlcater]

We've seen systems come out of the Rockies in the vicinity of CO and/or KS for 2 months now. The problem furthest west is that they aren't mature storms. They're just getting started and end up developing further east. What is needed for NE and IA peeps is a slower, stronger, digging system that goes neg-tilt sooner. We saw this with GHD-2 system and with strong enough blocking it can replay this season as well. 

Yea, that's kinda what I meant. I assume the ridge in some way or another is hindering further development, hence why it gets delayed. They are also starting out further north ---> hard cutters. Though I'm not worried yet.

[Minny_Weather]

Here is another winter forecast. Dean Wysocki is my favorite meteorologist. He was at channel 8 back in the mid to late 90's, quit then came back a second time. He is a very good met. 

That is awesome. Explained exactly how I think it will go. Interesting how he mentioned a clipper pattern, too. That'd bring us quite a few nuisance snows.

[jaster220]

Yea, that's kinda what I meant. I assume the ridge in some way or another is hindering further development, hence why it gets delayed. They are also starting out further north ---> hard cutters. Though I'm not worried yet.

 

You were dead-on accurate, til the bolded part. Iirc, both the 10/11 and 10/14 came out in CO, then promptly dropped SE before coming up as pan-handle type systems. I don't have every map saved, but that's what I recall, and I believe OKwx made a post to that effect that he found the S and E trend a refreshing change from last year's N and W pattern. 

[jaster220]

Here is another winter forecast. Dean Wysocki is my favorite meteorologist. He was at channel 8 back in the mid to late 90's, quit then came back a second time. He is a very good met. 

 

Yep, very nice job by that crew. And very much what I felt for your area, that you've got a chance at some nice systems, but not the constant action of a 09-10 historic season. It's always a positive thing when the only direction to go (after last winter) is UP!  

[gabel23]

That is awesome. Explained exactly how I think it will go. Interesting how he mentioned a clipper pattern, too. That'd bring us quite a few nuisance snows.

 

 

Yep, very nice job by that crew. And very much what I felt for your area, that you've got a chance at some nice systems, but not the constant action of a 09-10 historic season. It's always a positive thing when the only direction to go (after last winter) is UP!  

 

Very interesting hearing him mention about every 50 days this will occur. I wonder how he is getting that information?? Maybe he follows the LRC or he has developed some sort of way of deciphering out patterns over his years in the weather department. 

[hlcater]

LOT Met from AmWx seems to like how the beginning of December is looking on the EPS.

 

 

 

This isn't a bad look at all at the end of the 12z European ensemble today. Nice high amplitude ridging/-EPO on the Pacific side and looks like -NAO/-AO too. Also appears to be hinting back to -PNA with southwestern troughing and southeastern ridging. If that verified, could be an active period with good cold into the source region likely due to the -EPO. 

 

[jaster220]

LOT Met from AmWx seems to like how the beginning of December is looking on the EPS.

 

Yep, we're getting an early glimpse by various models of where we likely are headed, but like Tom noted, the changes at the Strat level take time to propagate down and feed into whatever the models key off of in portraying the lower level outcome. Might take 5 more days, but we'll start seeing some better looks wrt December. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Put out my final winter forecast today if anyones interested. It was pretty much "dumbed down" for the public so they can understand it. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1513790825355978/?type=3&permPage=1

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

Interesting graph showing how quickly the models are bouncing. AO just two days ago was looking positive, now very negative.

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 steadily trending towards the colder looking pattern for December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171123.201712.gif

[possum]

I know most of ya don't buy into the idea that nature gives us signs that we don't yet understand, but this year, waterfowl are acting in a way that i have not seen in 20 years.  something strange is indeed going on.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I know most of ya don't buy into the idea that nature gives us signs that we don't yet understand, but this year, waterfowl are acting in a way that i have not seen in 20 years.  something strange is indeed going on.

Explain more?

[OKwx2k4]

I know most of ya don't buy into the idea that nature gives us signs that we don't yet understand, but this year, waterfowl are acting in a way that i have not seen in 20 years. something strange is indeed going on.

Hey! I just told someone the exact same thing at Thanksgiving. I've heard geese flying south almost every clear night for a month it seems like. Used to hear crows every deer season through last year, have heard or seen zero this year. Basically, what I'm saying is I have seen many interesting things this year too that I haven't seen before or haven't seen since I was a very young kid.

[OKwx2k4]

Interesting graph showing how quickly the models are bouncing. AO just two days ago was looking positive, now very negative.

 

DPOtWZpVQAAVX0H.jpeg

This what I've been talking about right here with watching the trends all get colder. The longer range stuff last week was pretty much sorry excuses for modelling out of all models really. Looks like things are getting back on track now. This part coming in the early part of December is what I've been waiting for for 2 months.

[possum]

Explain more?

numbers.  they are everywhere. and not just in a small area.  mallards are already in parts of south texas that they have not been seen in in 20 years.  we have geese here.  they normally don't show up until a little after christmas.  13-14 season, they showed up dec 10.  mallards are here in mid Jan. numbers.  NWTN, SEMO, and NEAR.

 

black birds normally stall their migration here.   they are LONG GONE!!  i never NEVER seen the volume of deer movement that i have seen in the last month.   woodducks migrated early this year.  raccoons have gorged them selves since last spring.  we actually had a fall here since i don't know when.  leaves actually changed colors. usually they just fall off about december 1. a lot more too.  just more subtle. 

[jaster220]

I know most of ya don't buy into the idea that nature gives us signs that we don't yet understand, but this year, waterfowl are acting in a way that i have not seen in 20 years.  something strange is indeed going on.

 

Hey! I just told someone the exact same thing at Thanksgiving. I've heard geese flying south almost every clear night for a month it seems like. Used to hear crows every deer season through last year, have heard or seen zero this year. Basically, what I'm saying is I have seen many interesting things this year too that I haven't seen before or haven't seen since I was a very young kid.

 

And to add, if I didn't before, Snowy Owls that usually winter in Canada have been seen in SWMI already. I think it was the brutal cold winter of '94 I had one near my place in Traverse. Which was an oddity up there, but we did occasionally get various birds from north of Superior in those harsh mid-90's winters. I was just getting used to stepping out in shirt sleeves when it's 30 degs outside for a brief minute or two - getting acclimated you could say. Now it wants to get all above normal around here. I don't care for the extreme contrasts that are typical in the Plains. I'm not crazy about 60's followed a couple days later by teens, lol

[gabel23]

numbers.  they are everywhere. and not just in a small area.  mallards are already in parts of south texas that they have not been seen in in 20 years.  we have geese here.  they normally don't show up until a little after christmas.  13-14 season, they showed up dec 10.  mallards are here in mid Jan. numbers.  NWTN, SEMO, and NEAR.

 

black birds normally stall their migration here.   they are LONG GONE!!  i never NEVER seen the volume of deer movement that i have seen in the last month.   woodducks migrated early this year.  raccoons have gorged them selves since last spring.  we actually had a fall here since i don't know when.  leaves actually changed colors. usually they just fall off about december 1. a lot more too.  just more subtle. 

Very interesting! When we get into the heart of winter will have to look back at this and see if this was a sign of things to come! 

[jaster220]

So, with today's torch I think it's safe to say that the better part of the LRC has drawn to a close. Decided to look back to get a feel for what we may have in store later on. I couldn't break this down to exact dates the way I wanted to, but it will suffice to give us some clues. With Oct 6-7 system considered to be the first of the new pattern i feel pretty good about the first portion Precip pattern. Looks share the wealth-like

 

 

 

This a bit of trickery on my part, I'll admit, since Oct was still a transition month and the balmy stuff was diehard with a vengeance the further east yby was. Looking at temps for the past 30 days certainly looks good for cold

 

 

 

Lastly, while the coldest portion was ongoing, there was a distinct divide between the haves and the have-nots. Those further east continued with the wet theme whereas west of the GL's got dry

 

 

 

 

For this area, the cold caught up with the Precip only the past 4 weeks, but an impressive 4 wks it was! Needless to say, if we could see a similar 4 week period during the cold time, it should be very interesting around here

[Thunder98]

It's a 2016-2017 Redux again, California and West Coast with cooler or wetter than average weather while the rest of the country is much above average temperatures with mild Pacific Air flooding the Country. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Here's at least something pleasant to view whilst we await this necessary mini bbq stretch of classic Indian summer type weather.

[Minny_Weather]

Here's at least something pleasant to view whilst we await this necessary mini bbq stretch of classic Indian summer type weather.

 

 

OH MY GOD that control map.

[jaster220]

OH MY GOD that control map.

Yeah..he didn't do you guys any favors flashing that. Barf-worthy

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah..he didn't do you guys any favors flashing that. Barf-worthy

I had already seen it anyway. I just didn't comment about it on here.

[Andrew NE]

Time has proven those maps don't mean much. Last year they had us buried all winter in feet of snow.

[Minny_Weather]

Time has proven those maps don't mean much. Last year they had us buried all winter in feet of snow.

Yeah I know that. I just thought it was funny that the control run showed the EXACT stereotypical scenario.

 

I'm not one of those people that calls Winters torches in the Fall.

[Grizzcoat]

Andrew from the The Weather Centre is out with his forecast.

 

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2017/11/2017-2018-winter-synopsis.html

[Niko]

It's a 2016-2017 Redux again, California and West Coast with cooler or wetter than average weather while the rest of the country is much above average temperatures with mild Pacific Air flooding the Country. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

That Pacific Jet can really be the death of Winter at times.

[Andrew NE]

Yeah I know that. I just thought it was funny that the control run showed the EXACT stereotypical scenario.

 

Yea I know you are not one of those people but you are right. It is so typical of what the likely outcome may be.

 

I'm not one of those people that calls Winters torches in the Fall.

[Andrew NE]

Andrew from the The Weather Centre is out with his forecast.

 

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2017/11/2017-2018-winter-synopsis.html

I didn't know he was still running his site, I thought he had shut it down when he went to college. He always has some very in depth forecasts.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

That Pacific Jet can really be the death of Winter at times.

Glad to see the above avg moisture field over us though.

[Niko]

Glad to see the above avg moisture field over us though.

Yup, that is certainly some good news. Although, cold air would be needed to satisfy our need for snowfall around the region.

[OKwx2k4]

NE folks, that map post was entirely not intentional. :/