September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z Euro high-rez next 10 days....wet across the ag belt!

 

[Niko]

Jose, currently a TS out in the Atlantic, threatens the US coastline per some models. Everyone on the EC should closely monitor this system as the track takes it more west. Stay tuned!

[westMJim]

Same here..I cannot remember the last time it actually rained in my neck of the woods. Hopefully, early next week, we can get some t'stm activity from that CF that will be approaching us. From what I am hearing, it will end up being a dry front for me.

It has been very dry since mid August. In fact here in my area its the driest it has been this summer and the grass is now getting very brown. The trees are now turning with a lot of yellows and some reds some leaves are falling off the tress without color. The last rain in Detroit was on Sept 4 So far this month most of Michigan has gotten less that one inch of rain fall. 

[Niko]

It has been very dry since mid August. In fact here in my area its the driest it has been this summer and the grass is now getting very brown. The trees are now turning with a lot of yellows and some reds some leaves are falling off the tress without color. The last rain in Detroit was on Sept 4 So far this month most of Michigan has gotten less that one inch of rain fall. 

Its ridiculous.  Any front that does try to come its way ends up drying out and we get a dry front.

 

Ofc, Irma was a great opportunity to get rainfall, but she decided to go as far north as Ohio and then head east towards PA.

[Tom]

Typhoon theory now flashing on the GFS in lala land but it would fit the pattern so I wouldn't discount it.  HR 384 already into October!    

[Niko]

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/145928_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[jaster220]

Almost midnight and it's still 76.6* on my balcony...

 

KRMY hit 49F this morning. I'm afraid the eastern end of our sub is going to go into the icebox this winter. So far, the early cold seems focused over our way. At any rate, certainly a contrast lately from here to there.

 

Edit: We always have the 30% of trees that are early turning, but this year there are quite a few, and they've burst entirely into color. Mountain Ash are bright yellow, have Red Maples, and even some orange (reg?) Maple trees in stunning full color. If you get a cluster, it's a beautiful display on these sunny days. And it's not just tips of trees, but the entire tree.

[OKwx2k4]

Starting to see leaf stress and leaf drop here from the dryness but looking like color change is coming pretty quickly down here also.

[Minny_Weather]

Leaves haven't "completely" started changing yet, but I can notice a brighter shade of green.

[jaster220]

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/145928_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

Expect things to pick up momentum again after Jose gets his lazy a$$ moving down stream and off our maps!

[Minny_Weather]

Seriously. How long has Jose been farting around in the Atlantic? Looks like it has a while to go too. Hope it doesn't cone out into the East Coast.

[Tom]

ORD just hit 87F, thankfully, DP's are in the 50's so its manageable..."I refuse to turn on the A/C"...

[james1976]

No doubt about Jose. Quit holding up Fall over here. Lol

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening here in SEMI...man, absolutely magnificent night.

[Niko]

Expect things to pick up momentum again after Jose gets his lazy a$$ moving down stream and off our maps!

[Niko]

Starting to see leaf stress and leaf drop here from the dryness but looking like color change is coming pretty quickly down here also.

Same here. 

[jaster220]

ORD just hit 87F, thankfully, DP's are in the 50's so its manageable..."I refuse to turn on the A/C"...

Step away from your burning barrel - yikes! Only touched 80 here intra-half hour as they say. Expecting your heat tomorrow though with 83. With being Sept though it's cooling off promptly by 19:00

[Madtown]

Rockies at their finest! Snow everyday on the peaks. Looks like a dump next week!

[Niko]

Jose might be a threat.

 

 

Have a feeling TWC crew will be going up the coast these days to start reporting Jose.

[Niko]

18z GFS

 

[Tom]

CONUS is covered with smoke by all the fires!

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/land/fire/currenthms.jpg

[Tom]

Rockies at their finest! Snow everyday on the peaks. Looks like a dump next week!

God's country!  Epic shot...

[jaster220]

CONUS is covered with smoke by all the fires!

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/land/fire/currenthms.jpg

#noticeable!

[Niko]

The good thing about warm air this time of the year is that the humidity is not all that bad. Temps in the 80s and dews in the low 60s is very tolerable. I'll take it any day!

[Niko]

Currently at 64F, clear skies and dews are in the upper 50s. This type of weather in July or August would be a huge bonus.

[Niko]

Some more info on Jose:

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late
Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through
Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.
 

[Tom]

It feels like a July summer morning (66F/61F), clear and sunny skies!  Bonus beach weather...that's where I'm heading today.  I was going to try and fish for some King Salmon on Lake Michigan but the water needs to cool off some more.  Need it more in the lower 60's/50's to be ideal.

 

[Minny_Weather]

It's pissing rain earlier than it was originally supposed to here. Hope it's done by the time the Husker game starts!

[Tom]

It's pissing rain earlier than it was originally supposed to here. Hope it's done by the time the Husker game starts!

Send some of that over here!  A lot of you out in the Plains finally getting rains as the wet second half of Sept begins!  Literally, right on schedule (16th).

 

00z GEFS through the end of the month...

 

[Tom]

Brief cool down in the Plains tonight will be refreshing I'd imagine...

 

[jaster220]

It feels like a July summer morning (66F/61F), clear and sunny skies!  Bonus beach weather...that's where I'm heading today.  I was going to try and fish for some King Salmon on Lake Michigan but the water needs to cool off some more.  Need it more in the lower 60's/50's to be ideal.

 

I presume that's a satellite image reading true surf temps only. Quite sure it's cooler a few meters down where the fish hang out. My neighbor said the Salmon were hot-n-heavy up on Grand Traverse Bay last weekend already. Ofc, southern part of the lake down your way will stay warm the longest, it's just that map makes it look like the entire lake is a bathtub.

[Tom]

I presume that's a satellite image reading true surf temps only. Quite sure it's cooler a few meters down where the fish hang out. My neighbor said the Salmon were hot-n-heavy up on Grand Traverse Bay last weekend already. Ofc, southern part of the lake down your way will stay warm the longest, it's just that map makes it look like the entire lake is a bathtub.

Yup, surface temps, but I'm sure its cooler below the surface as always.  We need more of a westerly wind to upwell the cooler waters from below which brings the Kings closer to the shoreline.  Unless, of course, you take a charter miles offshore.  We usually cast/troll the shorelines of Waukegan Harbor or if we head up to MKE.

[jaster220]

Send some of that over here!  A lot of you out in the Plains finally getting rains as the wet second half of Sept begins!  Literally, right on schedule (16th).

 

00z GEFS through the end of the month...

 

IF Marshall actually scores the .75" depicted, it continues the theme from most of the summer. We avg about 3" of qpf per month year round, so that's half of normal. And this past 30 days has been worse with only 25-40% normal. It's enough to keep weeds and wild grasses alright, but cut lawns have been mostly brown outside of a few weeks in July, or required watering.

[Minny_Weather]

The rain was much needed here. The corn is the driest and most wilted I have ever seen it.

[Tom]

Meantime, Winter has arrived and skipped Autumn in the northern Rockies...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/tfx/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png

[james1976]

Had a small shower early this morning. Just enough to get the ground wet. Nothing was in the rain gauge.

[Niko]

After some heavy fog this morning, brilliant sunshine and warm temps.

[Minny_Weather]

Very cool and cloudy now. Low 60s and windy almost warrants a light sweatshirt.

[westMJim]

It is unofficial but I have 88° here at my house. At the airport the official reading is now at 86°

[Tom]

Not gonna lie, came back from the beach and turned on the A/C. Thermometer says 86F but in the sun it feels more like 90F! Torch is legit for Sept standards. Plenty of people out enjoying bonus summer wx.

 

Looking out towards next weekend, can we do it again?