September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

 By months end, it really cools off in my neck of the woods and going into October. A lot of members on here should feel the chill as well.

[Niko]

Mike Seidel reporting from NJ. Looks like Jose will impact the coast in some ways. Nothing extreme though.

[gabel23]

GFS, which is the model I am siding with at this point, has rain the entire day Saturday. Don't cancel anything yet, still 6 days away.

 

The reason I am believing GFS is because Euro has the very strong cold front stalling out and staying around the I-80 corridor the entire week. That would mean epic storm action, but seems unrealistic for this time of year and there is no obvious reason for it to stall.

Certainly looks wet!

[Tom]

This looks more like a July 7-day forecast....!  As stated before, I'd rather have the warmth now then later.  I'm sure some on here don't mind extended summer, extended growing season.

 

 

 

[Tom]

The recent warmth is making a low of 58F feel a little nippy this morning.  Sunrises are getting later and later...kinda dark still at 6:30am when I usually get up nowadays.  Sunsets have been setting before 7:00pm as the number of hours of daylight continues the slide.

 

00z GEFS are fitting the pattern for the lower 48 Week 2 as we see blocking to the north in East Asia Day 4-8...

 

 

 

 

East Asian Theory should translate a similar block over N.A. Day 10-16...not surprisingly, last night's run is coming around to it...

 

 

 

Towards the end of the run, big time amplification...chilly finish to the month of Sept and likely cold open to October.  

 

 

[Tom]

The trough that will be taking shape across the central Plains this weekend may be enough to "kick" Hurricane Maria OTS and avoid any U.S. landfall.  Both GEFS/EPS not showing a direct landfall, but it's still a bit early to make that call.

[Niko]

Another gorgeous week coming up. Plentiful sunshine and warm temps. (80s)

[Niko]

This looks more like a July 7-day forecast....!  As stated before, I'd rather have the warmth now then later.  I'm sure some on here don't mind extended summer, extended growing season.

 

 

 

The following week is when changes occur to much colder weather. Bottom drops off for sure.

[Minny_Weather]

This looks more like a July 7-day forecast....!  As stated before, I'd rather have the warmth now then later.  I'm sure some on here don't mind extended summer, extended growing season.

 

 

 

It's about time everyone on the sub has comparable weather! 

[Tom]

It's about time everyone on the sub has comparable weather! 

Looks like I will have to use my A/C a few more times this month...can't complain, it's been a great warm season around here.

[Niko]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34+png/204706_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34.png

[Niko]

My high temp yesterday was a sizzling 90F. (Tied the old record of 90F set back in 1927 )   d**n, that is hot for this time of the year. Average high is 71F.

[Niko]

As far as Jose goes, models have trended more east, so Eastern L.I might only get some heavier bands of rain and strong winds. Farther west you go, the better it gets.

[Tom]

Gary Lezak starting to talk about the development of the new CPH pattern (AKA the LRC).  I mentioned before that the new cyclical pattern usually starts a couple weeks before we actually see it develop in our latitude. There are several members on here (or more) that see our discussions about the known LRC.  The LRC will be renamed to the Cycling Weather Pattern Hypothesis once the peer review is over.  For the sake of not to cause confusion, I'll continue to use the LRC acronym going forward.

 

What will the new pattern deliver???  Let's what Mother Nature has in store.

 

 

[Tom]

My high temp yesterday was a sizzling 90F. (Tied the old record of 90F set back in 1927 )   d**n, that is hot for this time of the year. Average high is 71F.

Record heat!  We will bake again later this week.  Gosh, I hope the higher rez models are right and we see a decent soaking here tomorrow.  RPM model has spotty 1-2" rains for N IL and N IN.

[Niko]

Record heat!  We will bake again later this week.  Gosh, I hope the higher rez models are right and we see a decent soaking here tomorrow.  RPM model has spotty 1-2" rains for N IL and N IN.

Indeed.....I am hoping that the current front (kinda weak currently) will provide some decent rainfall IMBY, otherwise it is looking like a dry and warm week for me as well with no water from mother nature in sight until further notice. Ofc, Jaster received a nice soaker yesterday ( a surprise little rainstorm over his neck of the woods) which I am not surprise that it dried up and dissipated b4 arriving to SEMI.

[Tom]

Indeed.....I am hoping that the current front (kinda weak currently) will provide some decent rainfall IMBY, otherwise it is looking like a dry and warm week for me as well with no water from mother nature in sight until further notice. Ofc, Jaster received a nice soaker yesterday ( a surprise little rainstorm over his neck of the woods) which I am not surprise that it dried up and dissipated b4 arriving to SEMI.

Many more lawns in my neighborhood are looking terribly brown.  I'm really hoping for an over achiever tomorrow.

[Niko]

Many more lawns in my neighborhood are looking terribly brown.  I'm really hoping for an over achiever tomorrow.

Me too! Lawns here are brownish as well. I try to water my lawn 3 times a week, maybe 4. Added a little fertilizer as well, so, its not too bad.

[Niko]

Lets also not forget about Lee who is following Maria in the eastern Atlantic. Very active tropical season thus far. Best of luck to those people suffering down there, especially those that are getting hit by a hurricane more than once.

[NEJeremy]

Had another downpour this morning. I took a quick look out the backdoor at my rain gauge and it looked like about 1/2" of rain had fallen, but it was still coming down.

The 06Z GFS dumps on a lot of the region this weekend though!

[Niko]

I am currently getting a light rainshower, but nothing to brag about. Just dampen the ground, that's all.

[Tom]

GFS has been trending on delaying the cold front out in NE till Monday now.  I guess that's a good thing if you want to enjoy some outdoor activity.

[Tom]

It's not uncommon ORD hits 90F in Sept and the following winters are colder/snowier than normal.  I did some digging and looked back at the years 2013 and 2007 and both reached or exceeded 90F.  In fact, Sept '13 ORD hit 95F on Sept 10th and 91F on the 11th.  In 2007, ORD hit 90F on the 24th.  If ORD hits 90F sometime this week, it won't be that uncommon to see it do so.

[Niko]

Cloudy, damp and dreary day so far weatherwise with temps holding in the upper 60s.

[Tom]

I've been watching to see what is going to happen to the developing PV currently over the Pole.  12z GFS is indicating a clear split right when the new LRC is evolving over the northern latitudes.  If you look at the GEFS ensembles, a massive Scandinavian Ridge develops at the end of the month and puts a lot of stress on the PV.  This is crazy to see early on in the game.  Obviously, this is a Day 10 map but it does show some reasoning to allow this to happen.  This vortex then allows Canada to flood with cold Autumn air to open October.

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

From NOAA: and the beat goes on

 

Story for the rest of the forecast is sun and warmth as a deep
trough setting up over the west coast resulting in downstream
amplification of the ridge already in place over the eastern conus.
The steering currents around the mid level ridge, building to 590
dam by the end of the week, will keep any shortwaves to our west
through the weekend. Increased southwest flow will eventually push
the thermal ridge into the region where 850mb temps will then hover
in the upper teens (C) for several days. This combined with clear
skies and full sun, will lead to high temperatures in the mid 80s
for the latter half of the week into the weekend. This will be
around 10 degrees F above normal for mid September.

[Niko]

Latest on Maria:

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-lesser-antilles-northeast-caribbean-islands

[BrianJK]

It's not uncommon ORD hits 90F in Sept and the following winters are colder/snowier than normal. I did some digging and looked back at the years 2013 and 2007 and both reached or exceeded 90F. In fact, Sept '13 ORD hit 95F on Sept 10th and 91F on the 11th. In 2007, ORD hit 90F on the 24th. If ORD hits 90F sometime this week, it won't be that uncommon to see it do so.

Not 100% sure, but think we've hit 90 in October not too long ago - think it was on a scheduled marathon weekend.

[Niko]

Tbh, I do not mind a warm Autumn. Come November right around ThanksGiving, let the fun begin with cold and snow right up until mid March. Then, that's it!

[jaster220]

Indeed.....I am hoping that the current front (kinda weak currently) will provide some decent rainfall IMBY, otherwise it is looking like a dry and warm week for me as well with no water from mother nature in sight until further notice. Ofc, Jaster received a nice soaker yesterday ( a surprise little rainstorm over his neck of the woods) which I am not surprise that it dried up and dissipated b4 arriving to SEMI.

 

All it took was for GRR to post this yesterday. Got a prompt reaction it did!

 

 

 

Note the "small rain chances, etc, etc, etc"

[Tom]

Not 100% sure, but think we've hit 90 in October not too long ago - think it was on a scheduled marathon weekend.

I do remember that very warm and humid Marathon race.  Did a quick check and the warmest Marathon in recent years was back in 2007 (88F).

 

http://www.nbcchicago.com/weather/stories/Chicago-Marathon-Weather-History-225256292.html

 

Officially, I didn't find any high temps 90F or higher in October since 2000.

[Tom]

Cat 4 Hurricane Maria looks mean...I feel sorry for those islands that are in the path...

 

[Tom]

OMG, Maria just hit Cat 5 strength with 160mph winds!

 

[Niko]

All it took was for GRR to post this yesterday. Got a prompt reaction it did!

 

20170917 GRR Drought graphic.png

 

Note the "small rain chances, etc, etc, etc"

............I think that we have a better chance when they give a low probability % of any precip, than, when they provide a high percentage chance.

[Niko]

OMG, Maria just hit Cat 5 strength with 160mph winds!

 

Poor people that are in her path. Big blow!

[Minny_Weather]

After having mostly weak hurricane seasons the past few years, this is such a crazy year. This would be 2005-like if the front end of hurricane season wasn't shear filled.

[Niko]

The potential exists for Maria to strengthen even more, possibly to 170mph. Yikes!!!

[Niko]

So, its official that Maria beat Gilbert's record in becoming the fastest hurricane ever in the Atlantic. A little over 53 hours to become a CAT5 ( from a TD Sat pm hour to a CAT5 earlier this evening). It beat Gilbert's record by a few minutes. Simply amazing stuff.

 

FWIW: Did some research on this and found that Hurricane Gilbert became a CAT5 hurricane in 54 hours, whereas Maria did it in 53hrs and 45min. So, it beat Gilbert by 15min time difference.

 

Ofc, not sure if its the most accurate info, but, its the most updated source of information that I found. Hopefully, NOAAS analysis will determine if that's what happened, or possibly TWC will announce it.

[Tom]

Woke up in the middle of the night to rain drops hitting my sky light.  Thankfully, the predicted wave did in fact produce some beneficial rainfall overnight.  I'm waiting for totals to come in but looks like the heaviest rains of 1"+ skirted the southern burbs into N IN.  Glad it happened overnight so it can soak into the grounds.  The hot weather beginning tomorrow will likely vaporize the grounds once again but at least the vegetation will have something to drink!

 

 

 

[Tom]

@ Jaster, looks like your luck has turned around fast!  SW MI getting good soaking rains as the wave pivots across your state.  WestJim is prob going to miss out...hope it holds together for Niko.