September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Wanna say that someone here in MI stands a chance in hitting the mid to upper 80s this weekend. Yikes!!!!

[james1976]

12z Euro keeps the ridge locked and steady through the extended. Jose is blocking up the pattern in the East which keeps the flow much less progressive. If Jose sticks around in the east, I see now reason for above normal temps to continue for the foreseeable future.

Makes sense. I think a few days back models had it way out to sea. If its meandering around off the east coast it will hold up everything.

[Niko]

Irma is finally done with my area. All I received was clouds from it. Not a single drop.

[jaster220]

Irma is finally done with my area. All I received was clouds from it. Not a single drop.

Came home to a half dried up drive so she must've visited Marshall. Heard she has a thing for historic places

 

 

[Niko]

Came home to a half dried up drive so she must've visited Marshall. Heard she has a thing for historic places

 

Yup, you only received clouds as well. Now, get ready for sunshine and warm temps (if not record highs) until the passage of the cf.

[Niko]

So, I went outside my patio now to have a glass of white wine and a little bonfire going as well. Well, guess what. I had to turn off the fire. I was actually sweating. Couldn't believe it. More like mid Summer out there. Plus, darn bugs flying all over the place. Took my labtop and wine and headed for my basement instead. It felt like a whole different world down there. At least 10 degrees cooler. I could only imagine how its going to feel like over the weekend with all of that warm air coming. Need I say beach weather???!!!

[gabel23]

Love hearing and seeing everybody's passion for weather through pictures, videos, postings and information! Keep it up everyone.....looks like we will see another month of dry weather in the first half and wet in the second half. I must say that this year's ending to the LRC has been pretty spot on for us in the Plains. I'm keeping my eye on a hurricane coming up from the baja california peninsula area; then gets carried up through our area around one week from tonight. I can't recall being affected from an extra-tropical area of low pressure that originated as a hurricane . That would mark the end of a wild wet pattern this summer and would bring on a mad dash towards the fall. As an avid gardener, I'm hoping for a warm and wet stretch of weather until about mid-october. If I can avoid a hard freeze until then I could possibly have tomatoes for thanksgiving. That, of course, only happened once in my life as that was last year. I'm hoping for a volatile, wild fall that will lead to a wild wonderful winter for all!! 

[clintbeed1993]

Love hearing and seeing everybody's passion for weather through pictures, videos, postings and information! Keep it up everyone.....looks like we will see another month of dry weather in the first half and wet in the second half. I must say that this year's ending to the LRC has been pretty spot on for us in the Plains. I'm keeping my eye on a hurricane coming up from the baja california peninsula area; then gets carried up through our area around one week from tonight. I can't recall being affected from an extra-tropical area of low pressure that originated as a hurricane . That would mark the end of a wild wet pattern this summer and would bring on a mad dash towards the fall. As an avid gardener, I'm hoping for a warm and wet stretch of weather until about mid-october. If I can avoid a hard freeze until then I could possibly have tomatoes for thanksgiving. That, of course, only happened once in my life as that was last year. I'm hoping for a volatile, wild fall that will lead to a wild wonderful winter for all!! 

 

Mother Nature needs to give us a top 5 snowy winter to make up for the top 5 least snowy of last winter.  This decade has got to start delivering the goods eventually.  Looking back in previous decades it's almost always the same way.  We get a few below average winters and then a few above average ones.  Well, this decade has been skimping majorly on the above average category..time to deliver mother nature...even things out!

[OKwx2k4]

Ya know, I was doing some research earlier today on how September correlates with Winter here. A cold September in this century tends to correlate with a cold and snowy Winter here. THERE IS ONE KEY EXCEPTION!!!! September 2000 was near-record hot, getting up to 106 one day. I think we all know how that Winter was. I've heard a lot about a 2000-2001 analog on here...

 

Oh, and as an added bonus, the Winter before that was god awful. Complete torch with the snow season relying on one February 7" snowfall.

That's why I keep coming back to that one. 2000-01 was pretty special because it was really like it was just suddenly winter. It's a weird year but it fits so many timelines in regards to ENSO and atmosphere/ocean coupling in other regions as well. I'm also getting my warm September weather back (as I hoped) starting tomorrow so thinking is currently leaning towards an early and hard winter.

[Tom]

Love hearing and seeing everybody's passion for weather through pictures, videos, postings and information! Keep it up everyone.....looks like we will see another month of dry weather in the first half and wet in the second half. I must say that this year's ending to the LRC has been pretty spot on for us in the Plains. I'm keeping my eye on a hurricane coming up from the baja california peninsula area; then gets carried up through our area around one week from tonight. I can't recall being affected from an extra-tropical area of low pressure that originated as a hurricane . That would mark the end of a wild wet pattern this summer and would bring on a mad dash towards the fall. As an avid gardener, I'm hoping for a warm and wet stretch of weather until about mid-october. If I can avoid a hard freeze until then I could possibly have tomatoes for thanksgiving. That, of course, only happened once in my life as that was last year. I'm hoping for a volatile, wild fall that will lead to a wild wonderful winter for all!! 

I've been watching this system and both the GFS/EURO show it phasing into the flow over the digging trough in the west.  Interesting feature.

 

Over here, it's another foggy morning across the Midwest/Lakes.  Folklore anyone???  Would be an ideal cutter track...I remember last year there were many foggy days in the Autumn across the Midwest/Lakes.  I don't remember if there were many in the Plains states.  December opened up rather stormy across these regions but the snow fall wasn't to enthusiastic per say.

[Tom]

JMA weeklies are out and are clearly showing a La Nina-like pattern over the next 4 weeks.  Big time flip for those out in the west which is much different than last year.  I remember driving through CO and there was barely any snowfall on the mountains, let alone the peaks.  This year will be a lot different as the central/northern Rockies are in a position to build up their snow pack early this season.

 

Big time SE Ridge, coupled with a large western trough over the next 2 weeks to round out the 1st month of met Autumn...

[Niko]

Outside today is absolutely gorgeous. I have a feeling lots of records will be broken.

[Niko]

Usually a warm September and October ends up being a cold Winter down the road. So, let the warmth begin.

[westMJim]

Outside today is absolutely gorgeous. I have a feeling lots of records will be broken.

What records do you feel will be broken? 

[Niko]

What records do you feel will be broken? 

Record high temps! Not outta the question. I am expected to be in the mid to upper 80s by the weekend. (90s not too far off)

[westMJim]

Record high temps! Not outta the question. I am expected to be in the mid to upper 80s by the weekend. (90s not too far off)

While it will be warmer than average here in Southern Lower Michigan for the next several days we will by no means set any new record highs. Over the next 7 days (September 14^th to the 19^th) the record highs at Grand Rapids are 95°, 97°. 98°, 92°, 94°, 91°, and 90° at Lansing they are 94°,94°, 92°,93°,94°, 94° and 94° at Detroit they are 98°, 100°, 98°, 93°, 92°, 93° and 92°. Way up at the Sault their record highs for September 14^th to the 19^th are 89° 89°, 81°, 86°, 84°, 84° and 85° So even in mid-September it can and has gotten rather hot in Michigan.

[Minny_Weather]

We officially hit 90 yesterday for the second time this month. Should happen again today and tomorrow before things pipe down. Our records are safe, most of our records this time of year are in the upper 90s to 100s. This is definitely a better situation than last September where a Western trough forced all the hot air here.

[Niko]

While it will be warmer than average here in Southern Lower Michigan for the next several days we will by no means set any new record highs. Over the next 7 days (September 14^th to the 19^th) the record highs at Grand Rapids are 95°, 97°. 98°, 92°, 94°, 91°, and 90° at Lansing they are 94°,94°, 92°,93°,94°, 94° and 94° at Detroit they are 98°, 100°, 98°, 93°, 92°, 93° and 92°. Way up at the Sault their record highs for September 14^th to the 19^th are 89° 89°, 81°, 86°, 84°, 84° and 85° So even in mid-September it can and has gotten rather hot in Michigan.

Never say never! Ya neva know!

[Tom]

Fog is finally clearing up...

 

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/images/wisgif32.gif

[Niko]

Fog is finally clearing up...

 

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/images/wisgif32.gif

That looks like places that have snowcover in the Winter time.

[Niko]

Video of Hurricane Irma:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESYhxL3fvjk

[Niko]

Not even sure why mobile homes are even considered to be able to be used as homes in FL.

[Tom]

With a predicted strongly -AO from GEFS ensembles, its hard not to imagine some colder air to swing down into the central CONUS after the 20th-22nd period.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[NEJeremy]

Hot day here in Omaha and also windy. Neither one of which we've had for quite a while.

My home thermometer had 95 on it, and the airport is at 93. Winds have gusted up to 40 mph as well.

[Minny_Weather]

94° at LNK, 92.1° in my backyard. At least there's no humidity, although the hot wind isn't a much better alternative.

[Tom]

94° at LNK, 92.1° in my backyard. At least there's no humidity, although the hot wind isn't a much better alternative.

Sounds like the weather I experience back in AZ!  Dry and hot!

[james1976]

Forecast for tomorrow is 91. Normal is 76.

#Torch

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside currently.

[Niko]

Looks like the whole month of September is going to be warm and dry for my neck of the woods. By the very end, it turns cooler, but nothing extreme.

[St Paul Storm]

Made it to 91 here today with a dew point of 64. Gross for September. AC is cranking. One more day of heat tomorrow, and then the AC is off until next June.

[jaster220]

Gorgeous evening outside currently.

And extremely calm! The fog til midday kept temps from getting out of hand but I was in shorts by late afternoon. Love the warmth in autumn with the low sun angle.

[Niko]

And extremely calm! The fog til midday kept temps from getting out of hand but I was in shorts by late afternoon. Love the warmth in autumn with the low sun angle.

I gotta tell ya, this type of weather this time of the year is totally amazing. I hope October is the same. Sunshine, warmth and low humidity. That spells "Perfecto"

[Niko]

Models are now suggesting Jose being a tad closer to the US coast. TWC said that if Jose strengthens, then, it will draw it closer to the US coastline. If it stays weak, it will be going ots. Ofc, Bermuda needs to watch this carefully.

[Niko]

Pic of a late Summer evening in Detroit, MI

 

[Minny_Weather]

Almost midnight and it's still 76.6* on my balcony...

[james1976]

Small line of storms developed just to my east this evening. Nothing here. Was not forecasted at all. Good for those who received anything. Its way dry around here.

[Tom]

Folks in the Plains and the western Lakes are sitting pretty for much needed moisture over the next 2 weeks...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still early, but GEFS may be starting to trend cooler for the last work week of Sept starting out in the Plains and then swing east to close out the month.

 

 

[Tom]

Both Euro/GFS are in agreement of a re-curving Typhoon tracking up the western shores of Japan and into Sea of Okhotsk where a major trough amplifies.  This particular track and placement should drive a trough in the western Plains and then slide east in the Day 10-15 range, which makes sense if the 00z GEFS are to be considered.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's interesting about this Pacific system, once it ejects out east and into the N PAC, it amplifies the PAC jet and both EPS/GEFS show a -AO develop along with a NE PAC ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm starting to see the beginning's of a new CPH cyclical pattern if we are to believe the GEFS out near East Asia Week 1-2.  Look at that blocking signal to the north of the PAC jet coming off Japan.  From what I have learned in the past, ridges in the Bearing Sea usually produce a SE Ridge so we may be seeing this evolve down the road.  Certainly fits a La Nina atmospheric set up.

[Niko]

After some morning fog, sunshine has entered the picture now and thankfully the fog burned away. Beautiful day and weekend shaping up for any activities.

[Niko]

Small line of storms developed just to my east this evening. Nothing here. Was not forecasted at all. Good for those who received anything. Its way dry around here.

Same here..I cannot remember the last time it actually rained in my neck of the woods. Hopefully, early next week, we can get some t'stm activity from that CF that will be approaching us. From what I am hearing, it will end up being a dry front for me.